tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21917637945379739462024-03-09T18:46:06.873-08:00DT Bangin' on the BucsDavid Toddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09380511200796084349noreply@blogger.comBlogger63125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2191763794537973946.post-24718837215928786032018-07-23T14:41:00.001-07:002018-07-26T10:52:43.168-07:00Currently on a Nine-Game Winning Streak, Nine Thoughts on the Pirates & Where They AreThe Pirates, winners of nine in a row and 11 of their last 12, have made the upcoming non-waiver trade deadline a lot more interesting for their fans and more difficult for their General Manager.<br />
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On Sunday July 8 the Pirates had nine games left to play before the All-Star break and Neal Huntington suggested that .500 baseball wasn't really going to help, implying he was unlikely to add players to a team eight games under .500. He was undoubtedly preparing an angry fanbase for a fire sale of the team's coming free agents and any marginal assets that could garner a return.<br />
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The Pirates won that Sunday at home against the Phillies and then took two-of-three from the visiting Nationals to raise their record to 43-49 with the Brewers coming to town for a five-game series. Even having won three of the last four at PNC Park, the Pirates were just a mediocre 24-24 in Pittsburgh. The Milwaukee series was likely a closing act for this group of Pirates. Five wins later, highlighted by <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/PIT/PIT201807150.shtml" target="_blank">a come-from-behind, extra inning, walk-off win on the final Sunday</a> before the break, and the fire sale was at least on hold.<br />
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The Pirates returned from the break with their bats scorching, outscoring the Reds at GABandboxP 27-5 and sweeping the three game set. Which brings us to today.<br />
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With 62 games to go the Pirates find themselves only 4 games out of the 2nd wild card spot and just 4.5 out of the first. The problem as you can see from the above chart, courtesy of ESPN.com, is that there are eight teams within 5.5 games--fighting for these two spots. Great for MLB and excitement deep into September, not great when assessing your odds of actually making a one-game winner-take-all playoff. So where does that put us?<br />
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<b>1.) Does Anyone Actually Care?</b><br />
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This has been a very difficult season for the Pirates off the field. There is a resentment and anger amongst the fanbase toward ownership, and in some cases the team, that I've rarely seen for any team in any sport. The current opinion of the Mets' ownership might come close. In fact here is a tweet from one of the Mets beat writers from earlier today that I think many would agree applies to the Pirates:<br />
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I didn’t write a column today but if I did it would say this. In pro sports, everything flows from ownership. The Mets are broken. They are owned by the Wilpons. Doesn’t matter how many people they send before the cameras to wear it for them. This dysfunction is on the Wilpons.</div>
— Marc Carig (@MarcCarig) <a href="https://twitter.com/MarcCarig/status/1021229926836469761?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 23, 2018</a></blockquote>
Attendance is down across baseball, but the Pirates have the 27th biggest drop in the 30 team league despite performing at the same level as last year. The Pirates management has said in the past when the fans come they will add to payroll. They haven't. And now they have suggested the lack of fan support may mean that they have to cut payroll. Regardless of performance on the field, there are long-time Pirates fans who no longer care about this team because of the actions of ownership. That's just reality.<br />
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<b>2.) How Good Is This Team?</b><br />
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This has been an incredibly difficult question to answer. The Pirates opened the season 26-17 in their first 43. They went 14-31 over their next 45 and are 11-1 in their last 12. That doesn't lend itself to strong, overarching conclusions. As you would expect, like the team, the performance of most of the Pirates key players has been equally erratic. So while the team's around-.500 performance is generally what was predicted, how they have gotten there has made them very tough to convincingly evaluate. This is equally true of both the pitching and the offense.<br />
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The best example is the Pirates three starting outfielders. They are all having excellent offensive seasons, but have gotten to this point in completely different ways:<br />
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As of right now</div>
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Dickerson .315/.347/.509 .856 OPS, 131 OPS+ (31 percent above league average)</div>
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Polanco .237/.335/.494 .829 OPS, 123 OPS+</div>
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Marte .287/.333/.494 .827 OPS, 123 OPS+</div>
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Dickerson has been the most consistent, maintaining an OPS above .770 the entire season. Polanco started the season incredibly hot, then had a two month stretch with just over 200 PA where he had a .604 OPS. Since then he has an OPS over 1.100 in his last 100+ PA. Marte had an OPS of .869 before going on the DL. He came back and put up an OPS of .622 in his next 129 PA. Since then? Also an OPS over 1.100. The extremes make the performances of Polanco and Marte tougher to evaluate, with Polanco's lack of any longer-term success making it more difficult still. I don't think anyone can have a convincing sense of how good this team is or can be over the next 62 games.</div>
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<b>3.) Does The Batting Order Actually Matter?</b><br />
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One small thing has seemingly made a big difference. I tweeted this two weeks ago:<br />
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I’m almost 100% sure this is the first time this year <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Pirates?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Pirates</a> have had their 5 best hitters in the top 5 spots in the order.</div>
— David Todd (@DTonPirates) <a href="https://twitter.com/DTonPirates/status/1016482867214512133?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 10, 2018</a></blockquote>
We spend way too much time discussing batting orders. But one simple principle is put your best hitters at the top of the lineup so they get the most at bats. Until July 9 Hurdle insisted on batting Josh Harrison and Josh Bell the team's two worst offensive players toward the top of the lineup. On July 9 he put Dickerson, Marte and Polanco in the top three spots in the order. Since that day and that tweet, the Pirates are 11-1.<br />
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<b>4.) Be Realistic</b>
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Regardless of what the Pirates do at the trade deadline, they are unlikely to make the playoffs:<br />
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From The Numbers Are The Numbers Department:<br />
The Pirates are 51-49, and their playoff chances are assessed at 13%.<br />
The Nationals are 49-49, and their playoff chances stand at 58%.<a href="https://t.co/aW7oAjgFzc">https://t.co/aW7oAjgFzc</a><br />
An outlier situation.</div>
— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) <a href="https://twitter.com/Buster_ESPN/status/1021331515022761985?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 23, 2018</a></blockquote>
44 of the Pirates last 62 games are against teams that are .500 or better. Look for Huntington to only add significant assets that will have an impact beyond 2018 if he does actually add.<br />
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<b>5.) This Week Matters</b><br />
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The trade deadline is eight days away. The Pirates play three games in Cleveland starting tonight and four in Pittsburgh against the Mets starting Thursday. If the Pirates go 5-1 or 1-5 over the next six days, it is significant. 5-1 and they are definitely in the mix, but a 1-5 stretch probably realistically ends any chance they make the playoffs. They are likely to have seven teams ahead of them with just 56 games left and a difficult schedule. Party over.<br />
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<b>6.) Don't Believe the Myth</b><br />
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There is a widely-believed narrative that the Pirates never add at the trade deadline. The Pirates have been active in both directions at the deadline, most significantly adding five players in 2015, their 98-win season.<br />
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In 2011 they added Derrek Lee and Ryan Ludwick. In 2012 they added Wandy Rodriguez, Travis Snider, Gaby Sanchez and Chad Qualls. In 2015 they overhauled 20% of their roster adding Aramis Ramirez, Joe Blanton, Joakim Soria, J.A. Happ and Michael Morse. In 2016 they moved soon-to-be free agent closer Mark Melancon to Washington for Felipe <strike>Rivero</strike> Vazquez and Taylor Hearn, in one of Huntington's best moves. And there was the infamous salarly dump of Francisco Liriano-and-prospects trade for Drew Hutchinson. They also acquired Ivan Nova and Antonio Bastardo at the 2016 deadline. In 2017 they moved Tony Watson and acquired Joaquin Benoit. The idea that they don't do anything at the deadline is a myth.<br />
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<b>7.) Most Trade Deadline Deals Have Little Impact</b><br />
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That's just the reality. With only 55 games remaining, less than a third of the season, the acquired player isn't likely to contribute even 1.0 WAR. Last year's most impactful deal,<a href="https://www.mlb.com/news/astros-trade-for-pitcher-justin-verlander/c-251757752" target="_blank"> Justin Verlander to the Astros</a>, happened a month after the non-waiver deadline just in time for Verlander to be eligible for the postseason. Relievers are going to be even less impactful, likely to pitch only about 20 innings. But, teams that know they are going to make the postseason will pay a king's ransom for relievers because the percentage of innings relievers work vs. starters always increases in the postseason. Trade deadline deals tend to be big on headlines, short on substance.<br />
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<b>8.) Don't Be Too Quick To Judge</b><br />
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The Pirates acquisition of J.A. Happ was one of the most productive deadline deals in MLB history, but was universally panned. After just his first start with the Pirates, <a href="http://banginonthebucs.blogspot.com/2015/08/after-just-one-start-is-it-already-time.html" target="_blank">I wondered if his days were short-lived.</a> From that point on, Happ was unbelievable, the best pitcher in baseball. He made 10 starts, 59 IP, went 7-1 with a 1.37 ERA, while the team went 8-2. He struck out 63, walked 11 and gave up only 3 HR. Opponents compiled a .525 OPS against him. I understand that the big headline deals are more fun, but at the end of the day, production is what matters. Happ provided 2.6 WAR in his two months with the Pirates. That is extraordinary. <a href="https://www.mlbdailydish.com/2017/8/1/16078682/mlb-trade-deadline-ranking-ten-biggest-deals" target="_blank">Here were the 10 biggest deals last year.</a><br />
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<b>9.) What Should the Pirates Do?</b><br />
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I'll be back tomorrow and Wednesday with some thoughts on what the Pirates should actually consider from both a buying and selling perspective.<br />
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David Toddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09380511200796084349noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2191763794537973946.post-6453546129116250782018-04-14T14:52:00.000-07:002018-04-15T09:22:50.887-07:00A Dozen Pirates Thoughts 13 Games InThe Bucs lost the opener in Miami last night and they didn't look good doing it.<br />
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So the <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Pirates?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Pirates</a> just had a situation where defensively they were facing the bases loaded with one out. The batter made an out. The other team scored 3 runs. I need <a href="https://twitter.com/jaysonst?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@jaysonst</a> or <a href="https://twitter.com/EliasSports?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@EliasSports</a> to tell me the last time that happened.</div>
— David Todd (@DTonPirates) <a href="https://twitter.com/DTonPirates/status/984958580934758400?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 14, 2018</a></blockquote>
Despite that, they sit 9-4 and lead the NL Central by 2.5 games going into the weekend action. Some thoughts. Obviously, everything comes with the SSS caveat:<br />
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<b>Hitting</b>: <b>A+</b><br />
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You couldn't ask for a better start. The Pirates lead the NL in <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=nl&qual=0&type=8&season=2018&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=5,d" target="_blank">runs</a>, <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=nl&qual=0&type=8&season=2018&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=12,d" target="_blank">batting average</a>, <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=nl&qual=0&type=8&season=2018&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=13,d" target="_blank">on base percentage</a>, <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=nl&qual=0&type=8&season=2018&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=14,d" target="_blank">slugging</a>, <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=nl&qual=0&type=8&season=2018&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=16,d" target="_blank">wRC+</a>, <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=nl&qual=0&type=8&season=2018&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=9,a" target="_blank">and strikeout rate.</a> They are <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=nl&qual=0&type=8&season=2018&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=4,d" target="_blank">third in home runs</a> and <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=nl&qual=0&type=8&season=2018&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=8,d" target="_blank">fifth in walk rate</a>. It's been a good two weeks.<br />
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1.) Gregory Polanco is never going to be a good fielder. I doubt he'll ever be more than an average baserunner--and he'll have to improve to even be that. But, there is a chance Polanco will develop into a very good hitter and this hot start has Pirates fans hoping once again that he'll fulfill his potential. We've seen good stretches from him before:
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You might forget how good Gregory Polanco was the first half of 2016. From start of season until July 4:<br />
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330 PA, 286 AB; .297/.374/.521<br />
.895 OPS; 12 HR, 50 RBI, 38 BB.<br />
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Rest of the season? <br />
257 PA, 241 AB; .212/.257/.394<br />
.651 OPS; 10 HR, 36 RBI, 15 BB.</div>
— David Todd (@DTonPirates) <a href="https://twitter.com/DTonPirates/status/983748439644229633?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 10, 2018</a></blockquote>
Can he do it for an entire season? While the early season power has been impressive--Polanco already has five home runs and leads all of baseball with 15 RBI--more significant may be his improved walk rate. Polanco came into the season with an 8.4% walk rate for his career. This year it stands at 15.8% in the early going. If Polanco can continue to manage the strike zone, <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=12907&position=OF#platediscipline" target="_blank">his O-swing% is at a career low,</a> and stay healthy, maybe this will be the long-awaited breakout season.<br />
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2.) While Polanco has gotten much of the national attention during the Pirates hot start, Corey Dickerson may be an even better story. On February 21, Adam Frazier was scheduled to be the Pirates starting left fielder and the Bucs were in the process of also throwing Daniel Nava, Bryce Brentz and Michael Saunders against the left field wall to see if anything stuck. It didn't seem like a great plan. And then Neal Huntington pulled off what might be one of the best deals of his tenure. The Tampa Rays traded Dickerson, who they had designated for assignment, to the Pirates for underachieving reliever Daniel Hudson.<br />
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Honestly, I’m in a bit of shock. I’m wondering what the heck the Rays were thinking. Salary push to get your starting LFer for a middle reliever? Season starts March 29. Offseason just got better. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Pirates?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Pirates</a></div>
— David Todd (@DTonPirates) <a href="https://twitter.com/DTonPirates/status/966744048676556800?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 22, 2018</a></blockquote>
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The Pirates got their starting left fielder at a cost of $500,000. Dickerson has been outstanding thus far. He <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/NL/2018-batting-leaders.shtml" target="_blank">leads the NL in bWAR by a full 0.5 margin</a>, checking in at 1.5 while no other player is above 1.0. With Andrew McCutchen off to a slow start, it well may turn out the Bucs upgraded going from Cutch to Dickerson.<br />
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3.) The Pirates other offseason addition has been almost as good. Colin Moran introduced himself to the home fans with a grand slam in his first AB at PNC Park and he hasn't slowed since. Through his first 40 PA he has five walks against six strikeouts. Like Dickerson he looks to have a very good approach and that may take a little bit of the sting out of the dominance that we are seeing in the early going from Gerrit Cole.<br />
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4.) In 2016 Francisco Cervelli was last in all of MLB among players with 300 PA in ISO*. Last year wasn't much better. But Cervelli is off to a great start this season, hitting his second HR on Thursday (he only hit five all of last year) and knocking in his 11th run. Cervelli isn't going to stay this hot, but if he can stay healthy and put up numbers similar to 2015, that would be a huge boost.<br />
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<i>ISO = SLG - Batting Average</i><br />
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<b>Starting Pitching: B-</b><br />
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5.) The Pirates starters have been more or less as expected. They are <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=nl&qual=0&type=8&season=2018&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=15,a" target="_blank">seventh in the NL in ERA at 3.62, best in the Central division</a>. They've done a good job of keeping the ball in the stadium, ranking fifth in HR/9 and third in HR/FB%. They haven't walked many, but they also haven't struck out many.<br />
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6.) Jameson Taillon, who gets start number three Saturday night, has been outstanding the first two times out, already registering a complete game shutout. For the Pirates to have any hope of contending, Taillon is going to have to continue this all season long. A 0.488 WHIP isn't sustainable, but a 1.3 BB/9 and a 10.0 K/9 might be.<br />
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7.) Trevor Williams doesn't have the best stuff on the staff, but he definitely knows how to pitch. I was surprised Williams made the opening day roster last year. I was surprised he was moved into the rotation mid-season and stayed there all year. And I'm surprised he's 3-0 with a 1.56 ERA to start this season. Seven walks and 10 strikeouts over 17.1 innings isn't very impressive and his FIP of 3.83 suggests this is an aberration. We'll see.<br />
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<b>Relief Pitching: D</b><br />
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8.) I don't think there is better value/$$ as a reliever than Felipe Rivero/Vasquez. His opening day blowup means it going to be awhile before his ERA gets back near the 1.67 we saw last year, but make no mistake, he's a superstar.<br />
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9.) The rest of the group has been more or less of a disaster. The Pirates made another roster move today and it looks like they will have turned over three of the eight bullpen spots by the end of the weekend. Michael Feliz and George Kontos have been serviceable as seventh and eighth inning guys, but the Pirates need someone else to step up. Edgar Santana and Tyler Glasnow both have potentially dominating stuff, but neither has been able to harness it effectively so far.<br />
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10.) The big question is when Joe Musgrove is healthy does he go into the rotation as originally planned or do they put him in the bullpen where he was very effective for the Astros last year? He and A.J. Schugel can't get healthy fast enough.<br />
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<b>Defense/Base Running: C-</b><br />
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11.) Defense and base running continue to be issues. The Pirates <a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/sortable/index.php?cid=1905975" target="_blank">rank 24th in defensive efficiency</a> after finishing 27th last year and <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2018&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0" target="_blank">rank 19th here</a> and <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2018&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=10,d" target="_blank">23rd here</a>.<br />
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12.) The big surprise? Corey Dickerson, not known for his defense, leads all of baseball with <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2018&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=10,d" target="_blank">six defensive runs saved</a>. Now if the rest of the guys would just follow suit.<br />
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<br />David Toddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09380511200796084349noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2191763794537973946.post-35578014594722537642017-04-20T11:47:00.000-07:002017-04-21T09:34:25.030-07:00With Little Opportunity for Financial Gain, Why Did Starling Marte Use PEDs?<span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Six-foot one, 190 pounds, strong, lithe, fast, quick, powerful, graceful, it doesn't matter what sport you are designing the perfect athlete for--soccer, tennis, baseball, hockey--Starling Marte would be the universal, can't-go-wrong mold. The Statue of David feels like covering up when Marte's around. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Much has been written in the last 48 hours about Marte and the 80-game suspension that was handed down by MLB Tuesday afternoon. Having digested all the hot takes (Buster Olney has <a href="http://insider.espn.com/blog/buster-olney/insider/post/_/id/16513/starling-marte-will-now-never-return-pirates-investment" target="_blank">an habanero-hot one</a>), having talked to people in the industry, I keep coming back to the same thought: It doesn't make any sense--largely because it doesn't make any cents.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">In 2014 Starling Marte signed a 6-year, $31 million contract with the Pirates that includes incredibly team-friendly options of $11.5 and $12.5 million that are virtually certain to be exercised in 2020 and 2021. Coming into this season Marte had made about $5.5 million in his major league career. This year he stood to make another $5.3 million of which he will now forfeit roughly $2.5 million. He is locked-in to making $18 million the next two years, which is really $42 million over the next four. Whether Marte were to morph into Mike Trout or Jose Tabata those numbers weren't going to change. (If he morphed into Tabata it's possible the Pirates wouldn't pick up his options, but even the first of those decisions won't be made until October 2019.)</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">So why put any of that at risk? With virtually zero possibility of financial gain in the near future, why use PEDs, particularly the "kiss-of-death" drug <a href="http://www.post-gazette.com/sports/pirates/2017/04/18/Starling-Marte-suspension-Nandrolone-PED-MLB-drug-policy/stories/201704180184" target="_blank">nandrolone, an old-school steroid</a>? <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2017/04/18/pirates-starling-marte-suspended-80-games-violating-mlbs-performance-enhancing-drug-policy/100609904/" target="_blank">Marte's explanation and public apology</a> were not well-received. Nobody wants to hear about "neglect and lack of knowledge." It's disingenuous at best and an outright lie at worst. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">So what happened?</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Victor Conte, founder of the infamous Bay Area Labrotory Co-Operative (BALCO), in <a href="https://sports.vice.com/en_us/highlight/starling-marte-test-positive-for-nandrolone-the-kiss-of-death-drug" target="_blank">commenting on nandrolone</a>, noted that it can stay in a person's system anywhere from six to eighteen months and can be detected at parts-per-trillon levels. With today's more sophisticated testing methods that virtually guarantees a positive test. How could Marte possible be <i>this</i> negligent or just this plain dumb?</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><a href="https://sports.vice.com/en_us/highlight/starling-marte-test-positive-for-nandrolone-the-kiss-of-death-drug" target="_blank">As Conte speculates</a> it is very possible that Marte was using another banned drug, likely testosterone, that was manufactured in a lab that didn't have the necessary levels of quality control and in reusing equipment the newly-manufactured substance was tainted. With Marte in his native Dominican Republic in the offseason and the failed test having taken place upon his return to the US for spring training, that seems like a plausible scenario.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Ok, that may be how Marte potentially got caught using a banned substance, but the question of why still remains.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">The impact of a failed test on a baseball player is much different than the impact on participants in other professional sports. <a href="http://sports.yahoo.com/news/time-progressive-smart-ped-plan-baseball-035606104.html" target="_blank">Jeff Passan wrote an excellent piece</a> discussing MLB's unwillingness to have an open and honest discussion about performance enhancing "drugs" and how the game needs to move forward from a policy that obviously doesn't serve as a strong deterrent, particularly at the minor league level. As Jeff points out, rather than take the lead and try to advance understanding and control of the issue, MLB has taken the opposite approach, enforcing increasingly harsh penalties and forcing any discussion on the topic back into the basement.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">I'm fascinated by the question of why sports fans generally look at PED use in baseball very differently than in other sports. PED suspensions handed down by the NFL are seemingly quickly forgotten while those handed down by MLB brand a player with a scarlet letter. And we rarely even see suspensions in the NBA, Joakim Noah the recent exception, or the NHL. And let's not be naive enough to believe that with just as much money and fame at stake, athletes in those sports have somehow subscribed to and accepted the idea of fair competition. Either they are smarter than their brethren or their leagues are less inclined to shine the white hot spotlight of negative publicity that comes with failed tests onto themselves.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">The answer that most resonates as to why the societal perception of baseball players running afoul of the rules is the argument about individual records and their significance in baseball versus football. Joe Sheehan, one of the game's best writers and a guest on my show every Tuesday, <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/starling-marte-and-home-runs-in-the-era-of-ped-testing/" target="_blank">wrote about home runs and baseball's duplicitous history</a>. The games stars were never more celebrated and the sport never more popular than at the height of the Steroid Era. But the game got burned by Congressional investigations and the Mitchell Report and now is determined to whitewash its image to appease all critics.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">The result is a game stuck in the middle, unable to move forward into a more enlightened era, driven partly by players <a href="http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mlb-players-and-media-sound-off-on-twitter-to-starling-martes-ped-suspension/" target="_blank">who often call for the most Draconian measures of all</a>, and fearful of a return to mass use and public scorn.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Which brings us back to Starling Marte.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">It made me think of Theodore Roosevelt's speech Citizen in a Republic, where <a href="http://www.theodore-roosevelt.com/trsorbonnespeech.html" target="_blank">he talks about The Man in the Arena</a>. Roosevelt wonderfully encapsulates the nobility of effort and the quest to achieve. He talks about failure and daring greatly. What he doesn't talk about is fear. The fear of failure. And when trying to understand why Marte chose the path he did, it's that fear of failure that seems like the most plausible explanation. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">This spring Starling Marte was going to represent the Dominican Republic in the World Baseball Classic for the first time. In April he was going to take over for Andrew McCutchen in center field for the Pirates. His contract was escalating. He was on the cusp of superstardom. </span><span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">The pressure on Marte this offseason was probably different than anything he had known. I'm guessing in wanting to take that last step forward, to ensure he was up to the task, he turned to PEDs to make sure he didn't fail. We look at Starling Marte and see the gifts. We wonder why PEDs are necessary, particularly when tangible proof of the positive effects on baseball performance are limited at best. It's harder to see uncertainty or even imagine fear in one so talented. But I'm guessing that is what drove him.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">That answer, and it's my speculation, nothing more, doesn't make what Marte did any less wrong. He ended up hurting himself and his team far more than any PEDs likely would have helped. But, at least for me, it gives a plausible answer to the question. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">I don't view Starling Marte as a bad person through all this. I can't get on that moral high ground. He made a mistake and he's getting punished. He's still a fantastic baseball player who is tremendously entertaining to watch. We'll have to wait awhile to see him again, but I'll root for him when he's back on the field in July.</span><br />
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David Toddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09380511200796084349noreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2191763794537973946.post-23382293300675491532017-04-18T11:03:00.000-07:002017-04-18T11:08:48.341-07:00A Dozen Pirates Thoughts 13 Games InLast Thursday afternoon the Pirates blew a 3-1, 8th inning lead in Fenway Park, lost 4-3 and dropped to 3-6. They were in the midst of a four-game losing streak which started with being swept by the lowly Reds at PNC Park where they were outscored 22-5. In nine games they had scored 28 runs and given up 47. And they looked as bad as the numbers suggested. As the headed out on a six-game road trip to Wrigley and Busch it was fair to ask if they were going to be relevant in May, let alone September.<br />
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On Sunday the Bucs finished a three-game sweep of the Cubs in Wrigley, coming back to win games in the 6th, 7th and 8th innings, evening their record at 6-6. So much for drawing conclusions two weeks into the season. After Monday night's 2-1 loss to St. Louis the Pirates are 6-7. Some thoughts:<br />
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<b>Starting Pitching</b><br />
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<b>1.)</b> The starters have been better than expected. The Braves are second in the NL with a 3.41 ERA, the Pirates are fifth at 3.48. In the 11 games not started by Tyler Glasnow the starters have compiled a 3.16 ERA and Glasnow certainly looked much better after a rough first inning last time out.<br />
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<b>2.)</b> A lot has been <a href="http://piratesbreakdown.com/2017/03/30/pittsburgh-pirates-upper-third/" target="_blank">written</a> about Pirates pitchers working <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/searage-taillon-and-the-pirates-upstairs/" target="_blank">up in the zone</a> more often this season. While the eye test and Francisco Cervelli's bobbing up-and-down behind the plate suggests it's true, the Bucs starters have registered a slightly higher GB% so far this year, 48.3% (5th in MLB) vs. last year, 47.6%.<br />
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<b>3.)</b> Two numbers to pay attention to:<br />
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<b>HR/9</b>: The starters have the 5th lowest HR/9 rate in MLB at 0.72. Last year's ML-leading Mets staff averaged 0.94 HR/9. The regression will occur at some point.<br />
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<b>K/9:</b> The starters K/9 rate of 6.48 is 27th in MLB. While Gerrit Cole and Jameson Taillon are often viewed as strikeout pitchers because of their mid-90s heat, that hasn't ever really been the case. Cole has never averaged a strikeout/inning and his strikeout numbers are red-flag low to start this season (more on that later this week). Much of this may be the Pirates emphasis on efficiency and trying to finish ABs in three pitches, but it's worth keeping an eye on. Glasnow is the only member of the rotation likely to register gaudy K numbers.<br />
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<b>Relievers:</b><br />
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Pirates starters have only worked 75 innings. It's hard to draw many intelligent conclusions or trends from that. The relievers have worked 42.1 innings with no individual going more than 8, so there is even less substance to any analysis.<br />
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<b>4.)</b> <a href="http://banginonthebucs.blogspot.com/2017/04/pirates-opening-day-roster-relievers.html" target="_blank">As mentioned here</a> before the start of the season, I'm higher on the Pirates bullpen than most. In Felipe Rivero the Pirates have the opportunity to use a guy much like Terry Francona used Andrew Miller last year. With Tony Watson slotted into the closer role, similar to Cody Allen, Clint Hurdle is free to use his best reliever in the most-optimal way. <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/goose-egg-new-save-stat-relief-pitchers/" target="_blank">Nate Silver's article on Monday introducing the Goose Egg</a>, lays out the best ways to leverage a team's best relievers, eschewing the save stat. #FreeRivero<br />
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<b>5.) </b>Trevor Williams has looked surprisingly good transitioning to the bullpen. An 8:0 K:BB ratio in his first five innings is impressive. When the Pirates inevitably need a sixth starter it will be interesting to see if Williams gets an opportunity or if one of the guys stretched out in Indy gets the first crack at it.<br />
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<b>Hitting:</b><br />
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It's been a bad two weeks, Wrigley not withstanding. The Bucs are 13th in the NL in runs, 14th in home runs, 14th in total bases and last in RBI. Their slash line is an anemic .228/307/.347, ahead of only the struggling Cardinals in team OPS.<br />
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<b>6.) </b>Josh Bell and Jordy Mercer have gotten off to horrific starts with both hitting below .200 and OPSing around .500 and none of Marte, McCutchen or Polanco has picked up the slack.<br />
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<b>7.)</b> The Bucs would most certainly be a better team with Jung Ho Kang, but it's unlikely he would have been any better than the two guys replacing him, David Freese and Adam Frazier. Freese has a 1.010 OPS, is 4th in the NL in OBP at .467* and has 10 walks in just 45 plate appearances. I pounded the table for Frazier to be an every day player before the season and he appears to be hitting his way into just that. His OPS+ of 133 is second on the team.<br />
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*<i>Former Pirates farmhand Robbie Grossman, now with the Twins, leads MLB in OBP.</i><br />
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<b>8.)</b> Last year Francisco Cervelli was last in all of MLB among players with 300 PAs in ISO.* I don't know if it was the hand injury or something else, but he was unable to drive the ball. This year he leads the team in ISO at .233, up from .058 last year and his exit velocity is up for 86.6 last year to <a href="https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=&hfZ=&hfGT=R%7C&hfPR=&hfAB=&stadium=&hfBBT=&hfBBL=&player_lookup%5B%5D=465041&hfC=&season=2017&player_type=batter&hfOuts=&pitcher_throws=&batter_stands=&start_speed_gt=&start_speed_lt=&perceived_speed_gt=&perceived_speed_lt=&spin_rate_gt=&spin_rate_lt=&exit_velocity_gt=&exit_velocity_lt=&launch_angle_gt=&launch_angle_lt=&distance_gt=&distance_lt=&batted_ball_angle_gt=&batted_ball_angle_lt=&game_date_gt=&game_date_lt=&team=PIT&position=&hfRO=&home_road=&hfInn=&min_pitches=0&min_results=0&group_by=name&sort_col=exit_velocity&player_event_sort=start_speed&sort_order=desc&min_abs=0&xba_gt=&xba_lt=&px1=&px2=&pz1=&pz2=&ss_gt=&ss_lt=&is_barrel=#results" target="_blank">89.9 this year.</a> He looks like a completely different hitter.<br />
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<i>*ISO = SLG - Batting Average</i><br />
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<b>9.) </b>The Bucs are tied for the ML lead in HBP with 9 and Josh Harrison must have set some kind of record by getting hit in four straight plate appearances Sunday and Monday. This is nothing new to the Bucs. In 2013 they led the majors in HBP (Reds were 2nd), in '14 they were second to the Cards, in '15 they lead again and in '16 they were second to the Cubs. NL Central: the beanball division.<br />
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<b>Defense/Base Running:</b><br />
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It's hard to imagine anyone has been worse than the Pirates defensively and on the bases so far this season. Starling Marte is seen as an elite defender, but as the Statcast data has shown us, most of his value is tied to his arm. Harrison, Mercer and Cervelli probably pass for average at their positions, but the rest are below average. The Bucs are 24th in DRS at -3 and <a href="https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=&hfZ=&hfGT=R%7C&hfPR=&hfAB=&stadium=&hfBBT=&hfBBL=&player_lookup%5B%5D=465041&hfC=&season=2017&player_type=batter&hfOuts=&pitcher_throws=&batter_stands=&start_speed_gt=&start_speed_lt=&perceived_speed_gt=&perceived_speed_lt=&spin_rate_gt=&spin_rate_lt=&exit_velocity_gt=&exit_velocity_lt=&launch_angle_gt=&launch_angle_lt=&distance_gt=&distance_lt=&batted_ball_angle_gt=&batted_ball_angle_lt=&game_date_gt=&game_date_lt=&team=PIT&position=&hfRO=&home_road=&hfInn=&min_pitches=0&min_results=0&group_by=name&sort_col=exit_velocity&player_event_sort=start_speed&sort_order=desc&min_abs=0&xba_gt=&xba_lt=&px1=&px2=&pz1=&pz2=&ss_gt=&ss_lt=&is_barrel=#results" target="_blank">tied for last here.</a><br />
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<b>10.)</b> Their is a strong perception across baseball that the Pirates have a good defensive outfield because they have "three centerfielders" out there. This has existed for a couple years now. It's not accurate. Statcast data shows the Pirates OFs don't make many of the tough plays and in 2016 <a href="http://www.espn.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/78742/early-signs-not-good-for-andrew-mccutchen-in-2017" target="_blank">they were next-to-last in percentage of flyballs turned into outs</a> at 88%. This year they are worse, 82% going into Monday's game. Route efficiency doesn't appear to be ideal for any of the three outfielders. I'll dig deeper into the data as the season goes on.<br />
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<b>11.)</b> On Saturday the Pirates gave SS Jordy Mercer his first day off starting Frazier in his place. Frazier booted the first ball hit to him in the first inning leading to two Cubs runs. The team doesn't have a backup SS on the roster. Frazier, Phil Gosselin, Alen Hanson and even Harrison can stand there for a few innings or a game when needed, but if Mercer were to miss any extended time the Pirates would have to make a roster move.<br />
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<b>12.) </b>The Pirates are 9/17 in stolen base attempts. Their 56% success rate is 14th in the NL. That doesn't include numerous runners who have been picked off. On Saturday the Pirates had three runners thrown out on the bases and an attempted sacrifice bunt turned into a double play. It's been open season to run on the Pirates as well. Opponents are 15/16 on the year.<br />
<br />David Toddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09380511200796084349noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2191763794537973946.post-87479298998036534962017-04-11T10:51:00.001-07:002017-04-11T10:51:10.749-07:00Managerial Decisions: Clint Hurdle bats Wade LeBlanc Twice with the Bases LoadedThe Pirates lost 7-1 to the Cincinnati Reds on Monday night. Tyler Glasnow dug a deep hole right out of the chute. After giving up a leadoff single to Billy Hamilton and getting Jose Peraza to fly to center, Glasnow walked four straight batters. 1-0 Reds, bases loaded and Glasnow's already thrown 38 pitches. The Pirates' win probability has already dropped below 25%. There has only been one out recorded in the game.<br />
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Glasnow manages to get out of the first giving up only one more run. In the Pirates half of the first the first two batters reach, but a flyout and two strikeouts leave the runners stranded (watch the pattern emerge). </div>
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Glasnow runs into more trouble in the second. After getting an out he gives up two singles. Joey Votto, who walked in the first, comes to the plate. Glasnow strikes him out on a nasty 0-2 curveball.* The two runners on base steal second and third on the strikeout. Adam Duvall steps to the plate. The Reds' win expectancy is 79%. Duvall lines the first pitch to left for a 2-run single giving the Reds a 5-0 lead and increasing their win expectancy to 89%. After another stolen base, the fourth, and a walk, the fifth, Glasnow's night is done. Wade LeBlanc comes in and gets the final out and the Pirates go to the bottom of the second down 5-0.</div>
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*<i>Silver lining on Glasnow? Coming into the game Votto had swung and missed at two pitches so far this season. Glasnow tied him up with a great fastball on the hands in his first at bat and punched him out with the curve in his second. Unfortunately there wasn't much else good in between.</i></div>
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The Pirates opened the second with a walk, single and a walk to load the bases. Their win expectancy jumped back to 25% as Wade LeBlanc's spot came up in the order. </div>
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LeBlanc threw four pitches to end the second inning. He was the team's designated long-man for this game. The Pirates other long-reliever, Trevor Williams, pitched two innings on Sunday and got loose on Saturday so was not deemed available by manager Clint Hurdle. Felipe Rivero had pitched the three previous days so was also not available. That meant the Pirates had four available relievers: closer Tony Watson, set-up man Daniel Hudson, Juan Nicasio and Antonio Bastardo to cover 21 outs.</div>
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On the bench the Pirates had backup catcher Chris Stewart who was not going to be used to pinch hit in the second. That left a slightly injured Josh Harrison, John Jaso, Phil Gosselin and Alen Hanson. Hurdle chose to stick with LeBlanc in a no-out situation knowing he had the top of the order with Jordy Mercer and Starling Marte after LeBlanc. LeBlanc hasn't been an automatic out at the plate. He sported a .250 batting average and .276 on base percentage coming into the game, but all but one of those plate appearances took place before 2014.</div>
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LeBlanc who struck out swinging, dropping the Pirates' WE 6%. Mercer followed with the same result and Marte grounded to short to end the inning, each dropping the WE another 5%. The Pirates went to the top of the third with a 9% win expectancy. </div>
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After an error allowed the first batter to reach, LeBlanc retired the Reds in order. The Pirates went to the bottom of the third with a 10% WE. Andrew McCutchen and Gregory Polanco both singled and David Freese and Francisco Cervelli both walked (that meant nine batters had reached base in the first three innings before an out was recorded and the Pirates had one run to show for it). With the bases loaded, no outs and down 5-1 Josh Bell came to the plate and Michael Lorenzen replaced starter Brandon Finnegan. The Pirates WE has soared to 32%.</div>
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Bell hit a shallow pop flyout to center and Polanco stayed at third. One out. Adam Frazier dribbled one up the first base line and Polanco was forced out at home. Two outs and the Pirates WE is back down to 18%. Hurdle is again confronted with the decision whether or not to bat LeBlanc with 18 outs still to cover with his 4-man pen. He again chose to bat LeBlanc who again struck out swinging on a 1-2 count. The Pirates WE dropped to 12% and they didn't put another runner on base. The Reds bullpen retired all 21 batters they faced in order.</div>
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<b>Did Hurdle make the right decisions?</b></div>
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I can't see an argument for pinch-hitting for LeBlanc in the second inning. Had Glasnow gotten out of the second and the same situation arisen, it's a easy decision. Pinch-hit Harrison for Glasnow because you aren't burning your long-man. But, with no outs and 21 more outs needed from the bullpen, giving LeBlanc a shot and passing the burden to the top of the order was the right decision. The fortuitous thing in that situation is that LeBlanc didn't bounce into a double play. Unfortunately for the Bucs, Mercer and Marte failed to deliver.</div>
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The decision as to whether to bat LeBlanc in the third inning isn't very different, but the fact that there are two outs may give the feeling of greater urgency. Let's assume LeBlanc's career OBP of .276 is outdated and it's more like .175. The lefthanded hitting Jaso is probably the Pirates best option off the bench at that point and he increases the chance to reach base by about 20%. </div>
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Hurdle then also needs to assess how much using some combination of the four remaining guys in the bullpen potentially decreases the Pirates chances to win games in the upcoming days. With the rescheduled game on Thursday the Pirates were scheduled to play the next nine days before getting another day off. Again I think Hurdle made the right decision. Had it been the fifth inning, he probably plays things differently. Had the score been 3-1, maybe he plays things differently. But being the third, he still has to get 18 more outs and pulling LeBlanc there probably means the Pirates have to shuffle the roster today to get a fresh bullpen arm to the majors.</div>
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I think Hurdle made the right decisions considering all the variables. Wade LeBlanc batted three times and twice struck out with the bases loaded. His outs, to some degree made his pitching performance moot. But he did pitch 5.1 innings, providing a big assist to the bullpen and giving Hurdle continued flexibility for the time being.</div>
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David Toddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09380511200796084349noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2191763794537973946.post-67403168849315303182017-04-06T07:17:00.001-07:002017-04-06T09:35:48.467-07:00Tweets from Last Night: 12 Takeaways from the Pirates Extra Inning LossThe Bucs lost 3-0 in 12 innings to the Red Sox Wednesday night. Here is what you need to know:<br />
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1.) Jameson Taillon was outstanding. He opened the game by going up the ladder to strike out Dustin Pedroia and generally showed a fastball that sat mid-90s. But the key for Taillon was his ability to consistently get his curveball over for strikes.<br />
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Difference between Taillon and Cole is that Taillon’s curve is more of a weapon than any offspeed pitch Cole currently throws. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Pirates?src=hash">#Pirates</a></div>
— David Todd (@DTonPirates) <a href="https://twitter.com/DTonPirates/status/849787678287638528">April 6, 2017</a></blockquote>
In the fifth Taillon flashed his repertoire. With runners on first and third, no outs he struck out Pablo Sandoval with a 96 mph fastball. He K'd Sandy Leon with an 82 mph curve and he got Pedroia to bounce harmlessly back to the mound. He finished the night 7IP, 5H, 0R, 3BB, 6K, 95-59.<br />
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2.) Chris Sale was even better than Taillon and will challenge for the American League Cy Young Award.<br />
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Sale looks as advertised in his first innings with the Red Sox. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Pirates?src=hash">#Pirates</a></div>
— David Todd (@DTonPirates) <a href="https://twitter.com/DTonPirates/status/849762840638611456">April 5, 2017</a></blockquote>
He finished the night 7IP, 3H, 0R, 1BB, 7K, 104-69 and induced 14 swinging strikes. Sale showed four different pitches, consistently mixed speeds and had Pirates hitters off balance all night. The Pirates didn't have a base runner reach second base. Enough said.<br />
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3.) The Pirates flashed some leather. Andrew McCutchen, who looked out-of-sorts in the opener on Monday, made two good defensive plays. The big one was gunning down Leon at home after a sharp Pedroia single to right with two outs in the third. Leon ran through a stop sign and Cutch fired an 89-mph strike to Francisco Cervelli for the out. Cutch's throw will get most of the attention but it was Cervelli's short-hop scoop and tag that really deserves the gold star.<br />
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Cutch gets his chance & throws Leon out at the plate. Nice throw. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Pirates?src=hash">#Pirates</a> first kill of season. Excellent catch/tag by Cervelli.</div>
— David Todd (@DTonPirates) <a href="https://twitter.com/DTonPirates/status/849773986930184194">April 6, 2017</a></blockquote>
In the fourth inning Cutch also made a good catch at the wall on Mitch Moreland on a ball that might have gone out while earlier in the inning David Freese made an excellent barehand pickup and throw on a slow roller to nail Xander Bogaerts. The play ended up being reviewed and was too close to overturn. The replay took a relatively painless 1 minute and 15 seconds.<br />
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Call holds. Two gold star plays by <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Pirates?src=hash">#Pirates</a> here. Cutch-Cervelli and Freese (w good stretch by Bell). <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Pirates?src=hash">#Pirates</a></div>
— David Todd (@DTonPirates) <a href="https://twitter.com/DTonPirates/status/849777934416195584">April 6, 2017</a></blockquote>
4.) I'm going to continue my years-long battle with ROOT Sports.<br />
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Hey <a href="https://twitter.com/ROOTSPORTSPIT">@ROOTSPORTSPIT</a> how about a look at the K box that you have at your disposal? (First of many). <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Pirates?src=hash">#Pirates</a></div>
— David Todd (@DTonPirates) <a href="https://twitter.com/DTonPirates/status/849766640048902144">April 5, 2017</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script>ROOT refuses to leave the K-box up on the side of the screen. I don't know if this is because they have a sponsor that they like to feature when they show replays or something else, but with today's technology, I basically find this inexcusable.<br />
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5.) Not much offense on display by either team the first two games of the season. The Bucs and Red Sox have played 41 frames and put up runs in 3 of them.<br />
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Great pitching tonight, but ball definitely not carrying. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Pirates?src=hash">#Pirates</a></div>
— David Todd (@DTonPirates) <a href="https://twitter.com/DTonPirates/status/849796182754897924">April 6, 2017</a></blockquote>
The were some swings, almost exclusively by the Sox, where off the bat they seemed to be trouble--Moreland's was a prime example--but the ball didn't carry.<br />
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6.) The Pirates finally got a leadoff batter on in the ninth for the first time all night when Jordy Mercer reached on a Pablo Sandoval error. Starling Marte, arguably the team's best hitter, strode to the plate. Only one thing went through my mind:<br />
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<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/DontBuntWithMarte?src=hash">#DontBuntWithMarte</a> !!!!</div>
— David Todd (@DTonPirates) <a href="https://twitter.com/DTonPirates/status/849797651986079745">April 6, 2017</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script>Hurdle bunted with Marte. He popped it up to Sandoval for an easy out. (EDIT: From the postgame comments it sounds like Marte bunted on his own. Hurdled said there was no bunt sign on, but didn't want to criticize his player "...when he says he's trying to help you win a game." This type of thing happened multiple times last season. If Marte did bunt on his own that's on the staff too. They have to better educate the players to game situations. Either way, not good.)<br />
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Well. Called that. Why? <a href="https://t.co/U8QM3Nd5Fu">https://t.co/U8QM3Nd5Fu</a></div>
— David Todd (@DTonPirates) <a href="https://twitter.com/DTonPirates/status/849797751290384384">April 6, 2017</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script>Cutch and Polanco followed with groundouts to second. The Pirates best chance was by the boards. The 27 outs are your most precious assets. Don't give them away!<br />
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7.) I really like the Pirates bullpen. <a href="http://banginonthebucs.blogspot.com/2017/04/pirates-opening-day-roster-relievers.html" target="_blank">I wrote about it on Opening Day.</a> I'd love to see Hurdle utilize Rivero and Nicasio as Andrew Miller, multi-inning guys. Rivero's stuff is filthy and I think he may end up being one of the dominant relievers in the game sooner rather than later.<br />
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If you didn't already know get ready for a whole season of me being completely over-the-top about Rivero. Love him.</div>
— David Todd (@DTonPirates) <a href="https://twitter.com/DTonPirates/status/849800688511143937">April 6, 2017</a></blockquote>
Typically we kill managers for leaving their best relievers in the bullpen on the road in the ninth inning as they wait for the save situation. (See playoffs 2016 Buck Showalter, Zach Britton.) The Pirates may find themselves in a similar situation to the Indians last year. Cody Allen was set as the closer while Andrew Miller, an equally good if not better reliever, could be used in all sorts of ways. The Pirates are set with two solid relievers in Hudson and Watson as their backend guys. Be creative with Rivero and Nicasio. Hurdle didn't use Watson in the ninth, choosing to go with Rivero instead. Was it because he was following Showalter's manager's handbook or was he using his best reliever? Either way, I was indifferent. That is a good problem to have.<br />
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8.) There have been very few offensive positives from the Pirates performance in Fenway thus far, but Francisco Cervelli, yep Cervelli, has been a bright spot. Cervelli sported about as empty a .377 OBP as you could possibly have last year. He slugged .322 and had an ISO of .058. <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=300&type=8&season=2016&month=0&season1=2016&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=11,a" target="_blank">Of players with 300 plate appearances, he was dead last in ISO.</a> Hard to know how much of that was a result of injury, but so far this year, so good.<br />
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Cervelli has hit two ropes so far this season. Good sign. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Pirates?src=hash">#Pirates</a></div>
— David Todd (@DTonPirates) <a href="https://twitter.com/DTonPirates/status/849803294520344576">April 6, 2017</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script>9.) There was lots of commentary about the Pirates defensive shifting after their Opening Day loss. Travis Sawchik had an excellent piece at <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-embattled-shift/" target="_blank">Fangraphs called <i>The Embattled Shift</i> discussing the issue</a>. Take note last night. The Pirates shifted against Chris Young, a righthanded batter, moving Jordy Mercer over into the hole to open the 10th inning. When Young pulled a Tony Watson fastball into the hole, off-the-bat I assumed it was a hit because I had yet to see the defensive alignment. When the camera changed, there was Jordy deep in the hole making a relatively routine play for the first out. Nobody, and I mean nobody, mentioned this. Well, that's not completely true:<br />
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That was a shift against Chris Young for the first out, if you didn't notice. Jordy over in the hole. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Pirates?src=hash">#Pirates</a></div>
— David Todd (@DTonPirates) <a href="https://twitter.com/DTonPirates/status/849807252299153408">April 6, 2017</a></blockquote>
Jackie Bradley, Jr followed with a single and after a Sandoval strikeout, Leon singled. Do with that what you will.<br />
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10.) Tony Watson's tenth inning may not look pretty in the boxscore, but it was better than advertised.<br />
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Good job by Tony. One hard hit ball. Ump didn't help him any. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Pirates?src=hash">#Pirates</a> go to 11th 0-0.</div>
— David Todd (@DTonPirates) <a href="https://twitter.com/DTonPirates/status/849809369000808449">April 6, 2017</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script>He gave up a bloop single and then got badly squeezed by the umpire and ended up walking Pedroia. With the bases loaded and game on the line he got Andrew Benintendi on a broken bat, soft grounder to second.<br />
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11.) Starling Marte got a 2-out single in the 11th.<br />
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That would have been nice in the 9th. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/DontBuntWithMarte?src=hash">#DontBuntWithMarte</a></div>
— David Todd (@DTonPirates) <a href="https://twitter.com/DTonPirates/status/849811597874823168">April 6, 2017</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script>12.) The Pirates lost the game in the 12th on another 3-run homer, this time by Sandy Leon off of Antonio Bastardo. First I have no idea why Hurdle didn't use Juan Nicasio for more than one inning. Earlier I talked about the versatility and flexibility afforded by having Rivero and Nicasio in the pen. In the 11th Nicasio threw 13 pitches and struck out two of the three batters he faced.<br />
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Filthy from Nicasio.</div>
— David Todd (@DTonPirates) <a href="https://twitter.com/DTonPirates/status/849814029736521730">April 6, 2017</a></blockquote>
I don't know if the Pirates were ever going to score, but trotting Nicasio out there for the 12th seemed like a no-brainer. Didn't happen. Bastardo got the first out, but then walked Chris Young. With a 2-2 pitch coming Bastardo caught Young running on his pickoff move to first. Phil Gosselin had replaced Josh Bell at first.<br />
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Zero fundamentals there from Gosselin. Didn't come off the bag for the throw and give himeself an angle. SRod makes that play. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Pirates?src=hash">#Pirates</a></div>
— David Todd (@DTonPirates) <a href="https://twitter.com/DTonPirates/status/849819064830750721">April 6, 2017</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script>Gosselin's inexperience at the position showed. Rather than step forward and toward second to catch the throw earlier and give himself a better angle, as a righty, to throw to second, he waited at the bag. When he got the ball he made a terrible throw to second and Bradley was safe. Sandoval walked three pitches later and Leon took Bastardo's second pitch deep into the Boston night, over the Green Monster, to end it.<br />
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<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script>David Toddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09380511200796084349noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2191763794537973946.post-50068465889093439232017-04-03T06:49:00.000-07:002017-04-05T05:54:58.565-07:00Pirates Opening Day Roster: The RelieversNeal Huntington took away any potential Opening Day roster drama surrounding the Pirates pitching staff Friday night by announcing that Tyler Glasnow would start the season in the rotation and Trevor Williams had won the seventh spot in the bullpen. Last week I <a href="http://banginonthebucs.blogspot.com/2017/03/pirates-opening-day-roster-position.html" target="_blank">previewed the position players</a> and <a href="http://banginonthebucs.blogspot.com/2017/03/pirates-opening-day-roster-starting.html" target="_blank">the starters</a>. Now let's take a look at the relievers.<br />
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<b>The Bullpen (7): Tony Watson (L), Daniel Hudson (R), Felipe Rivero (L), Juan Nicasio (R), Antonio Bastardo (L), Wade LeBlanc (L) and Trevor Williams (R)</b><br />
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Ever since Joel Hanrahan took over as closer in 2011 the Pirates have gotten somewhere between good to dominant work out of the back end of their bullpen. During that time the mantle of closer has been passed fairly consistently. Once the setup guy appears capable of handling the job, invariably at a cheaper cost, the Pirates have moved on from the proven closer™. Out of nowhere Jason Grilli emerged as a dominant reliever in 2012 so at season's end the Pirates traded Hanrahan to Boston for a package that included Mark Melancon. Grilli held the closer role for a year as Tony Watson and Melancon developed into a shutdown 7th-8th inning tandem. When Grilli struggled at the start of the 2014 season he was shipped out and Melancon stepped up, with Watson bumped to the 8th. For three seasons the pair was as good a backend bullpen duo as existed in the majors. Last season, with Melancon's impending free agency, the Pirates moved him at the deadline for a package highlighted by Felipe Rivero.<br />
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This year Watson inherits the closer role. It's one he took over for two months after the Melancon deal and it's one he'll likely only hold for a year before he becomes a free agent. After three outstanding seasons, Watson took a slight step back last year almost completely due to the long ball. In the previous three seasons the lefthanded Iowan gave up 13 home runs in 235.1 innings. In 2016 he gave up 10 in 67.2 with six coming in just 23.1 innings as closer. <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/season_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=1&as=result_pitcher&offset=0&type=p&min_year_season=2013&max_year_season=2016&min_season=1&max_season=-1&min_age=0&max_age=99&lg_ID=lgAny&lgAL_team=tmAny&lgNL_team=tmAny&lgFL_team=tmAny&lgAA_team=tmAny&lgPL_team=tmAny&lgUA_team=tmAny&lgNA_team=tmAny&isActive=either&isHOF=either&isAllstar=either&throws=any&games_started=60&role=reliever&games_relieved=100&qualifiersSeason=minips&minIpValS=100&minDecValS=14&mingamesValS=40&qualifiersCareer=nomin&minIpValC=1000&minDecValC=100&mingamesValC=200&c1criteria=IPouts&c1gtlt=gt&c2gtlt=gt&c3gtlt=gt&c4gtlt=gt&c5gtlt=gt&c5val=1.0&location=pob&locationMatch=is&orderby=SO&number_matched=1" target="_blank">Since 2013 Watson has pitched more innings than any reliever in baseball racking up 292.0 frames</a> (Melancon is second), but he only registered 20 saves. Do you believe there are unique attributes to being a closer? If so, Watson's performance at the end of last season probably raised at least a cautionary flag.<br />
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Daniel Hudson was one of the Pirates' two notable free agent signings. Hudson's an easy guy to root for gaining notoriety as one of the feature subjects in Jeff Passan's excellent book The Arm. Hudson has undergone two Tommy John surgeries and has transitioned from starter to reliever. His 2016 ERA was an unsightly 5.22 due to a 15 games stretch where he gave up 31 runs in 9.2 innings--downright Hutchisonian. The Pirates have enough confidence in Hudson that they have slotted him as the setup man with the task of getting the ball to Watson.<br />
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The most interesting guy in the Pirates bullpen, by far, is Felipe Rivero. If you want over-the-top crazy, wild optimism about what Rivero is going to be, I'm your guy. Rivero is a legit three-pitch pitcher who would be perfect in an Andrew Miller-type role if Hurdle chooses to use him that way. He can work multiple innings and has shown no platoon split. Rivero struck out 28.1% of the batters he faced last season. The concern is free passes. Rivero had an outstanding spring with 13 strikeouts while giving up only one walk and two hits in 10.0 innings. It would not surprise me to see Rivero strike out 35-40% of the batters he faces and approach 100 Ks in 70+ innings. It will be interesting to compare his performance with that of Melancon the next few years.<br />
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Juan Nicasio has dynamite stuff. The problem is he is a two-pitch guy who struggled against lefties last season giving up a .934 OPS vs. .638 for righties. It is worth nothing that Nicasio's OPS out of the pen was a solid .715 after posting .827 as a starter. Nicasio was outstanding again this spirng with a 15:0 K:BB ration in only nine innings. The difference is this season the Pirates weren't tempted to move him to the rotation. Last season he struck out 31% of batters faced out of the pen and in 13 of his first 23 relief appearances he went more than an inning before being used more conservatively after rosters expanded in September.<br />
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Antonio Bastardo was re-acquired by the Bucs at the trade deadline after signing a 2-yr, $12 million deal with the Mets after a productive 2015 with the Pirates. Bastardo's walk rate of 4.3BB/9 is his achilles heel. But he has an odd career pattern of being much better in odd-year seasons posting an ERA under 3.00 in '11, '13 and '15 while never being below 3.94 in '10, '12, '14 or '16. The Pirates are hoping the pattern continues. In just about 400 career innings the slow-working lefty has shown very little platoon split which should give Hurlde great flexibility.<br />
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Wade LeBlanc and Trevor Williams round out the bullpen. LeBlanc gives Hurdle a fourth lefty. Williams, who turns 25 this month, is a converted starter on his first OD roster. He will be the Pirates long-man and mop-up guy. The most interesting thing to watch with Williams is whether the Pirates will try to use him to piggyback Tyler Glasnow's starts. Watch that early on as Glasnow as been inefficient with his pitch counts throughout the spring.<br />
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Rule 5 pick Tyler Webb was returned to the Yankees. A.J. Schugel, Pat Light, Dovydas Neverauskas and Edgar Santana are all likely to work out of the pen at some point this season.<br />
<br />David Toddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09380511200796084349noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2191763794537973946.post-73910199820779104082017-03-30T08:17:00.001-07:002017-03-30T08:17:24.841-07:00Pirates Opening Day Roster: The Starting Pitchers<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "arial" , "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 12px;">The decisions made the last days of spring training aren't as clearcut as usual this year. There are still 28, maybe even 29 guys who could potentially make the Opening Day 25-man roster. And, according to GM Neal Huntington, the last few decisions may not actually be made until the morning of the first game--a clear attempt to try and increase the chances that those who have to clear waivers actually do. (While I don't actually believe this makes a difference, the general thought is that with so many players being waived, teams are more likely to stay with their own guys unless there is a clear and obvious upgrade. Toss your guys in with the masses and they are going to be less scrutinized. Like I said, I don't buy it. With the sophistication in today's front offices, nothing slides by, but there is no reason not to do it this way.) <a href="http://banginonthebucs.blogspot.com/2017/03/pirates-opening-day-roster-position.html" target="_blank">Earlier this week I wrote about the position players.</a> Today, the starters.</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "arial" , "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 12px;"><br /></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "arial" , "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 12px;"><b>Note:</b> This is how I expect the Pirates to construct their rotation on OD.</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "arial" , "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 12px;"><br /></span><b style="color: #222222; font-family: arial, verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12px;">Starting Pitchers (5): Gerrit Cole, Jameson Taillon, Ivan Nova, Chad Kuhl, <strike>Steven Brault</strike>, <strike>Drew Hutchison</strike>, Tyler Glasnow</b><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "arial" , "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 12px;">I'm sure eyes immediately darted to the fifth starter spot. And while it is the least significant, most fungible of the five and is certain to be occupied by various players over the course of the season, it is the lightning rod topic for many fans. </span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "arial" , "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 12px;">But let's start at the top. The Pirates 2016 OD rotation consisted of Gerrit Cole, Francisco Liriano, Jon Niese, Jeff Locke and Juan Nicasio (who beat out Ryan Vogelsong in spring training). You get what you pay for. Out of 15 NL teams, the Bucs starters were 13th in innings pitched, 11th in ERA, 13th in WHIP, 13th in strikeouts and 9th in HRs allowed. Not good.</span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "arial" , "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 12px;">Every team in baseball had at least one starter give them 174.0 IP in 2016 except the Padres and the Pirates. Christian Friedrich gave the Padres a team-high 128.1 innings. Jeff Locke led the Pirates with 127.1 IP, but only 106.0 as a starter. Gerrit Cole led the team with 116.0 innings as a starter. By comparison the Cubs had five starters throw at least 165 innings and the Cardinals had four. If your starters throw as few innings as the Pirates starters, your season is, well, a non-starter. </span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "arial" , "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 12px;">Gerrit Cole and Jameson Taillon are the key to the Pirates relevance. The Pirates need to get 350+ top-level starter innings from the two to be a contending team. Key in on the K-rate for both. Cole struck out a career-low 19.4% of batters last year, a big drop from the 24% of each of the previous two seasons. He also posted career-high numbers in BB%, XBH% and LD% while only going more than six innings in six of 21 starts. Cole needs to stay healthy and find his 2015 form that saw him place fourth in NL Cy Young voting. </span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12px;">Taillon was all the Pirates hoped for coming off two missed seasons. He showed excellent control, walking only 4.1% of batters faced and showed maturity, poise and pitching-sense that you don't often see in rookie pitchers. He threw 165 innings between AAA and the majors and if he can bump that up to 180-190 and continue to improve, the Pirates will be set at the front of the rotation.</span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12px;">In an ideal world Ivan Nova and Chad Kuhl would be your fourth and fifth starters. Nova basically replicated J.A. Happ's sensational 2015 performance when he came over from the Yankees at the trade deadline last year. For Nova, a RHP, going from Yankee Stadium to PNC Park in the last months before free agency was a winning lottery ticket. (Although I think everyone was surprised at the relatively cheap terms he agreed to with the Pirates.) His HR/FB ratio went from 15.1% with the Bombers to 4.5% with the Bucs. His walk rate went from a good 5.9% to an absurd 1.1% walking just three batters in 64.2 IP, and he went deep in games tossing three of the Pirates five complete games in just 11 starts. If he takes just a small step back from the 3.06 ERA (2.52 FIP) he posted with the team last year and does it over 30 starts, he will be the biggest bargain in this year's free agent class.</span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12px;">Lump Kuhl in with uber-prospect Glasnow, Brault, Hutchison**, Trevor Williams and eventually Nick Kingham as the Pirates young hopefuls. The team came to spring training looking to fill two rotation spots from this group, with the assumption Kuhl would get one. He did. The battle for the other has been the talk of spring training. Coming in I ranked them Hutchison/Brault, Glasnow, Williams. Halfway through camp I gave Hutchison the edge. In his first three appearances he went 9 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 3 BB, 9 K. The job was his if he didn't implode. Even after two terrible outings, if he had pitched well on Tuesday against Boston I still think he would have been the guy. Instead he gave up 10 hits and nine runs in 3.2 IP. In his last three outings he posted this: 11.2 IP, 27 H, 21 R, 6 BB, 9 K. That's incomprehensibly bad. He left the Pirates no choice, getting optioned to AAA Wednesday morning. </span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12px;">(**<i>Hutchison, through no fault of his own, wears the stigma of being the return in the Francisco Liriano deal. It was assumed by many in the fanbase and media that Huntington would give him the job to try to "save face" and justify the transaction even though he repeatedly said that would not be the case. </i></span><i style="color: #222222; font-family: arial, verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12px;">Even if he had pitched well the shouts would have been that putting Hutchison in the rotation was a trade-justifying move. But instead Hutchison pitching terribly, </i><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12px;"><i>screwing himself over. But, in some perverse way, he enhanced the view of Huntington with many fans/media. Huntington, rather than being criticized for acquiring a pitcher who doesn't appear to be of value, is now being praised for "trying to win" because he sent him to AAA. As ridiculous as it sounds, it's 100% true.</i>)</span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12px;">The bigger surprise, with Hutchison performing so badly, was that Brault was optioned to AAA earlier this week. Brault has pitched reasonably well this spring and last year made seven starts with the Pirates while the other three rotation-contenders combined for six. He would provide the Pirates with a lefthanded starter in an otherwise all-righthanded rotation, a nice option at PNC park. It's still not clear to me why he is out of the running. But he is.</span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12px;">That leaves Glasnow and Williams. Obviously Glasnow is the prospect with the top of the rotation/ace ceiling while Williams' ceiling is more 4th/5th starter, situational bullpen/swing guy. Based on potential, the choice is obvous. But I'm convinced the Pirates would prefer Glasnow make 6-10 starts in AAA in order to continue working on his change up, continue getting comfortable with the 2-seamer, which he added back to his repertoire this spring, and work on controlling the running game. On top of that Williams has actually pitched better than Glasnow this spring and may give Bucs a better chance to win the first 6-10 times through the rotation. </span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12px;">So which way does it go? To me it's a toss up. I'd probably go with Williams and let Glasnow dominate in AAA until May 15-June 1 and then bring him up assuming all goes as planned. I've said many times that Glasnow is the most significant piece/wild card to the Pirates playoff hopes the next couple of years. If he develops into a frontline starter, the Pirates rotation is set for the next 3-5 years and a good bet to repeat their 2013-15 playoff seasons. If not, there is a gaping hole.</span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12px;">If Glasnow can replicate what Taillon did last year, over 20-25 starts, I think the Pirates can be an 85-88 win team. If not, the Bucs are likely to be closer to the 2016 version. I'd still let him marinate in AAA for a 6-8 weeks, but I'm guessing the Pirates make him the 5th starter and the Glasnow Era begins Saturday, April 8 against the Braves at PNC Park.</span><br />
<br />David Toddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09380511200796084349noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2191763794537973946.post-31482945861334868502017-03-28T09:41:00.000-07:002017-03-28T09:41:29.493-07:00Pirates Opening Day Roster: The Position Players<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "arial" , "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 12px;">The decisions left to be made with less than a week of Spring Training remaining aren't as clearcut as usual. There are still 28, maybe even 29 guys who could potentially make the Opening Day 25-man roster. And, according to GM Neal Huntington, the last few decisions may not actually be made until the morning of the first game--a clear attempt to try and increase the chances that those who have to clear waivers actually do. (While I don't actually believe this makes a difference, the general thought is that with so many players being waived, teams are more likely to stay with their own guys unless there is a clear and obvious upgrade. Toss your guys in with the masses and they are going to be less scrutinized. Like I said, I don't buy it. With the sophistication in today's front offices, nothing slides by, but there is no reason not to do it this way.)</span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "arial" , "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 12px;"><b>Note:</b> This is how I expect the Pirates to construct their roster on OD.</span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "arial" , "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 12px;"><b>Catchers (2): </b>Francisco Cervelli, Chris Stewart</span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "arial" , "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 12px;">Straightforward. Cervelli is the starter, Stewart the backup. Both have a history of injury so Elias Diaz and Jacob Stallings are virtually certain to see major league action again this year. Diaz may even start the season with the team with Stewart currently nursing a groin injury.</span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "arial" , "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 12px;"><b>Infielders (8): Josh Bell, Josh Harrison, Jordy Mercer, David Freese, Adam Frazier, John Jaso, Phil Gosselin, Alen Hanson.</b></span><br />
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<span style="color: #222222; font-family: "arial" , "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white; font-size: 12px;">I expect the infield to be influx the entire season. Similar to last year, the Bucs will open the season without Jung Ho Kang. Unlike last year, their is no timetable for his return. Josh Bell will be the first baseman, Jordy Mercer the shortstop. The rest is now up in the air. </span></span><br />
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<span style="color: #222222; font-family: "arial" , "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white; font-size: 12px;">Adam Frazier's solid 2016 and torrid spring may cause the team to act more quickly than I ever expected. Flashback to 2014 when Josh Harrison forced his way into the lineup, slashing .315/.347/.490 and <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=nl&qual=120&type=8&season=2014&month=0&season1=2014&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=17,d" target="_blank">finishing with a wRC+ of 137 that was third best on the team and top 20 in the NL.</a> Hurdle had to find a spot in the lineup for Harrison and ended up settling on a rotation of 4 starters for 3 positions. Gregory Polanco was struggling in right field and Harrison ended up playing almost every day bouncing between second, third, and right. Like Harrison, I expect Frazier to force the Pirates hand. In fact, regardless of the Kang situation, <b>I expect Frazier to be an everyday starter by the All-Star break, if not May 1.</b> His defense is still below average, but he is already a better hitter than either Freese or Harrison and he is clearly the team's best option to bat leadoff. Harrison and Freese will end up alternating at third with Freese and Jaso backing up Bell at first.</span></span><br />
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<span style="color: #222222; font-family: "arial" , "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white; font-size: 12px;">I expect Phil Gosselin to make the team and play a role like Sean Rodriguez last year. Unfortunately I expect Gosselin to be much more 2014 SRod rather than 2016 SRod. He is probably the backup shortstop when Mercer needs a game off every three weeks, but like SRod, he isn't well-suited to the position. If Mercer were to go down for an extended stretch, Huntington might be actually be forced to turn to Gift Ngoepe or look for help outside the organization. Kang was originally slated to get 20-25 starts at shortstop this year, but that obviously isn't happening.</span></span><br />
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<span style="color: #222222; font-family: "arial" , "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white; font-size: 12px;">That leaves the 13th spot to Alen Hanson. </span></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "arial" , "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 12px;">If we have learned nothing else during Neal Huntington's tenure as GM, it's that he is very reluctant to willingly give up assets.</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "arial" , "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 12px;"> Hanson is out of options. After a breakout minor league season in 2012, Hanson shot up the prospect rankings. But he has yet to break through. His inconsistent glove forced him off shortstop and now his best opportunity is likely to come with another organization. That this is only his age 24 season still works in his favor, but time is running short. Last week it was reported the Pirates were shopping Hanson, but no team is going to trade anything of value knowing the Pirates predicament. At some point this year, the Pirates are going to DFA Hanson and he probably gets claimed. I just don't think it will happen in the next week. He'll be on his first Opening Day roster on Monday. And I'm guessing it will be his only one with the Pirates. I don't see him getting any meaningful playing time barring multiple injuries.</span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "arial" , "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 12px;">Jose Osuna is the odd man out here. A bat-first, corner guy (all corner guys are bat-first, right?) Osuna has torn it up for the second straight spring. The schedule makers could have done him a favor by giving the Pirates two days off the opening week. Then the team could have skipped its fifth starter and taken Osuna north to Boston where they will open the season using a DH. Alas it is not to be as the Bucs will need their fifth starter in week one. Two months younger than Hanson and never considered a big-time prospect, Osuna has opened eyes with his bat over the past year. He'll make his major league debut this season, it just won't be on Opening Day.</span><br />
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<span style="color: #222222; font-family: "arial" , "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white; font-size: 12px;"><b>Outfielders (3): Gregory Polanco, Starling Marte, Andrew McCutchen</b></span></span><br />
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<span style="color: #222222; font-family: "arial" , "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white; font-size: 12px;">It's a helluva trio and if all had performed to their ceilings it could have been one of the best outfields the game had ever seen. Alas, that appears wishful thinking as this is almost certainly their last season together. This year the defense has been realigned. I don't see how that can be anything but positive. But it is the trio's offense that will likely determine the Bucs' playoff chances. Polanco was en fuego during the World Baseball Classic and arguably the Dominican's best player, but is currently nursing a shoulder injury. He struggled big-time in the second half last year and has yet to put together a full season. <a href="http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/18683274/in-world-stats-baseball-best-player" target="_blank">Marte is one of the most athletically-gifted players in the game,</a> but can he take that next step and be the top-5 MVP candidate I've been predicting the past two years? McCutchen's story has been the most-documented in the game the past nine months. <a href="http://www.espn.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/72923/andrew-mccutchens-decline-is-unprecedented-for-a-superstar-hitter" target="_blank">His dropoff last year was unprecedented as Dave Schoenfield noted</a>. But Dave's article coincided almost exactly with Cutch's return from a three-day unplugging (benching) Clint Hurdle gave him in Atlanta. From that point on he hit .284/.381/.471, virtually identical to his career numbers. The performance bell curve for this group is flatter than you might think.</span></span><br />
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<span style="color: #222222; font-family: "arial" , "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white; font-size: 12px;">My thoughts on Neal Huntington are well-documented. I think he's done an outstanding job overall, particularly with the limited resources he's been allocated. But, this is a spot where I'm sure he'd like to undo a trade he made after the 2015 season. Huntington traded outfielder Keon Broxton and reliever Trey Supak to the Brewers for Jason Rogers. I'm sure the Pirates viewed Rogers as a mix of Jose Osuna and Phil Gosselin. A bat-first player with some major league pedigree who could give them some right-handed power off the bench. It didn't work out. Rogers never did anything with the team last year, was DFA'd and signed with the team on a minor league deal. He's been injured most of the spring. Broxton had a great second half for the Brewers posting a .937 OPS with eight homers and 16 stolen bases in 169 plate appearances before fracturing his right wrist mid-September. He would be the ideal fourth outfielder for this team. Last year Matt Joyce fell into their lap and gave them outstanding, cheap produciton. Now they are going to be throwing utility infielders out there when the Big 3 need a day off. Not ideal.</span></span><br />
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<span style="color: #222222; font-family: "arial" , "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white; font-size: 12px;"><b>Next Up: The Pitching Staff</b></span></span><br />
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<span style="color: #222222; font-family: "arial" , "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white; font-size: 12px;"><b>Twitter: @DTonPirates</b></span></span><br />
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David Toddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09380511200796084349noreply@blogger.com11tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2191763794537973946.post-6769787042395247922016-08-13T10:17:00.001-07:002017-03-28T06:42:32.814-07:00Pirates Struggling with Kang in Lineup & Some Weekend Listening<div style="font-family: Arial, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 16px; margin-bottom: 1em;">
A nice win Friday night in Los Angeles as the Pirates started a six-game west coast road trip against the two NL West leaders. Two hits and a great defensive play by Andrew McCutchen once again raise hopes that he has figured out how to actually be, you know, Andrew McCutchen. Obviously that would go a long way to ensuring the Bucs make the playoffs for a fourth consecutive season.</div>
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Jung Ho Kang sat last night and has now started only 13 of the 24 games since the All-Star break and only two since August 4. We can all speculate as to the impact of the events of June 17 and the ensuing sexual assault allegations on Kang's performance, but it appears Kang has lost his job as the Pirates starting third baseman. Coincidence, correlation or causation, who knows exactly, but the Pirates are 10-1 in games NOT started by Jung Ho since the ASB and 2-11 in games he has started. Do with that what you will. If I'm Clint Hurdle, Kang goes the way of Gregory Polanco down the stretch in 2014 and only gets 1-2 starts a week.</div>
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I had some great guests on the show this week that I thought I'd link to if anyone would like to listen to the podcasts. On Monday <a href="http://espnpgh.iheart.com/media/play/27214586/" mce_href="http://espnpgh.iheart.com/media/play/27214586/" style="color: rgb(200, 24, 29) !important; text-decoration: none !important;">I spoke with Pirates beat writer Travis Sawchik</a> about his interview with GM Neal Huntington, thoughts on the deadline and the mood in the Pirates clubhouse. On Tuesday <a href="http://espnpgh.iheart.com/media/play/27218220/" mce_href="http://espnpgh.iheart.com/media/play/27218220/" style="color: rgb(200, 24, 29) !important; text-decoration: none !important;">I spoke with Mike Petriello of MLB.com</a>. Mike and I talked about the evolution of technology in MLB stadiums and specifically the data that is gradually becoming widely available, Pitch Fx, exit velocity, launch angles, spin rates, route efficiency and throw velocity among other things. We talked about how he analyzes the data, how major league teams and specific players are parsing and using the data and what is on the horizon in the months and years ahead.</div>
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On Wednesday and Thursday Joe Sheehan and Jonah Keri joined me. <a href="http://espnpgh.iheart.com/media/play/27223976/" mce_href="http://espnpgh.iheart.com/media/play/27223976/" style="color: rgb(200, 24, 29) !important; text-decoration: none !important;">Joe is a weekly guest (usually Tuesdays)</a> and this week we discussed ARod and the impact of PEDs. Joe (and Keith Law) is generally of the believe that there is no evidence that PEDs make baseball players better and, if I may paraphrase as best I can, believes the Steroid Era of the late '90s, early '00s is mislabeled. We followed that with a wide-ranging talk about the races going on right now. <a href="http://espnpgh.iheart.com/media/play/27225258/" mce_href="http://espnpgh.iheart.com/media/play/27225258/" style="color: rgb(200, 24, 29) !important; text-decoration: none !important;">Jonah joined me Thursday.</a> We hit on some of the same topics. Jonah and I share the view that PEDs did have an impact on the game and just because it isn't easily quantifiable, that doesn't mean it didn't exist. I also asked him whether he was outraged by the Pirates' moves at the deadline (Joe, like Charlie, generally thinks the Liriano trade was, for lack of a better term, a disgrace and something, with today's revenue sharing setup, that should never happen). We finished up with a look at the race in the NL West and for the NL wild card.</div>
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I also had my weekly Pirates discussion with Bob Smizik (<a href="http://espnpgh.iheart.com/media/play/27225079/" mce_href="http://espnpgh.iheart.com/media/play/27225079/" style="color: rgb(200, 24, 29) !important; text-decoration: none !important;">Part 1</a> and <a href="http://espnpgh.iheart.com/media/play/27225120/" mce_href="http://espnpgh.iheart.com/media/play/27225120/" style="color: rgb(200, 24, 29) !important; text-decoration: none !important;">Part 2</a>) on Thursday. Bob's one of my favorite guests and, if you have a listen to this, I think you'll be more than convinced that Bob is right on top of what is going on with the Bucs.</div>
David Toddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09380511200796084349noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2191763794537973946.post-44295221259528669232016-08-03T12:48:00.000-07:002016-08-03T12:48:33.286-07:00A Smorgasbord Heading into, um, Locke & Vogelsong<div style="font-family: Arial, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 16px; margin-bottom: 1em;">
Some quick-hitters this morning with the trade deadline behind us. Warning, some of these thoughts/points may actually take a positive tone (some, not all, I promise), so if you are an unswayable member of the attack mob, please don't be distracted from your original targets. In many cases I am just a messenger.</div>
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1.) Don't look now, but with last night's win over the Braves and losses by the Marlins and Cards, the Pirates are <a href="http://www.espn.com/mlb/standings/_/view/wild-card" mce_href="http://www.espn.com/mlb/standings/_/view/wild-card" style="color: rgb(200, 24, 29) !important; text-decoration: none !important;">one game back in the loss column</a> for the second wild card spot. But with so many off days of late, the Pirates have played two fewer games than the Mets and Cards and three fewer than the Marlins, so there is still plenty of work to be done.</div>
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Trade Deadline:</div>
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2.) After some very strong criticism of the Pirates-Toronto trade, <a href="http://www.bucsdugout.com/2016/8/2/12348320/on-the-pirates-disastrous-francisco-liriano-trade" mce_href="http://www.bucsdugout.com/2016/8/2/12348320/on-the-pirates-disastrous-francisco-liriano-trade" mce_style="background-color: #ffffff;" style="background-color: white; color: rgb(200, 24, 29) !important; text-decoration: none !important;">including Charlie's scathing rebuke</a>, some well-known analysts have come out with more positive views of the deal. Keith Law (<a href="http://insider.espn.com/blog/keith-law/insider/post?id=5479" mce_href="http://insider.espn.com/blog/keith-law/insider/post?id=5479" style="color: rgb(200, 24, 29) !important; text-decoration: none !important;">sub required</a>) felt that both sides got some value out of the deal and specifically addressed the comparisons made to the Arizona-Atlanta deal made last season:</div>
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Both players (Reese McGuire and Harold Ramirez) have some value, but this isn't like Arizona giving up Tuoki Toussant, and they had been passed by better players in a strong Pirates system.</div>
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<a href="http://insider.espn.com/blog/keith-law/insider/post?id=5479" mce_href="http://insider.espn.com/blog/keith-law/insider/post?id=5479" style="color: rgb(200, 24, 29) !important; text-decoration: none !important;"></a></div>
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He concludes that it is a reasonable deal for both teams suggesting that if the Pirates can help Drew Hutchison rediscover the hard slider that he flashed at the end of 2014 the Pirates will have a bargain on their hands. Certainly a big if.</div>
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3.) My biggest issue relating to the analysis of the deal is the constant reference to McGuire and Ramirez as top 10 prospects. They were both top 10 prospects coming into the season. They were also both top 100 prospects in the game at one point in time. But, the 2016 minor league season is almost over, so that is a massive amount of data that will be poured over to re-evaluate where players stand. McGuire and Ramirez have not done anything this year to improve their prospect status. As <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-thing-all-the-trades-had-in-common/" mce_href="http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-thing-all-the-trades-had-in-common/" style="color: rgb(200, 24, 29) !important; text-decoration: none !important;">Dave Cameron noted after the deadline over at Fangraphs</a>:</div>
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The Pirates agreed to give both up because they just weren't really hitting this season; both in Double-A, McGuire had a 94 wRC+ and Ramirez had a 112 wRC+ based on a .363 BABip, but neither was showing any semblance of power.</div>
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Recognizing that process is as much the issue as talent here, I recognize this doesn't have to be the defining aspect of the deal, but it's worth noting.</div>
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Obviously how the Pirates allocate the $20+ million saved at the deadline and with Liriano off the books next year will be a huge component of how this deal is viewed.</div>
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4.) I had Joe Sheehan on my show yesterday to talk extensively about the trade deadline. <a href="http://espnpgh.iheart.com/media/play/27200126/" mce_href="http://espnpgh.iheart.com/media/play/27200126/" style="color: rgb(200, 24, 29) !important; text-decoration: none !important;">In part 1 we reviewed the Pirates four deals</a> and his take was similar to Charlie's, though maybe not as strong, in regard to the Liriano trade. We did actually discuss the other three as well. <a href="http://espnpgh.iheart.com/media/play/27200131/" mce_href="http://espnpgh.iheart.com/media/play/27200131/" style="color: rgb(200, 24, 29) !important; text-decoration: none !important;">In part 2</a> we took a quick look at some of the other deals that went down. I really enjoyed this.</div>
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5.) Various analysts ranked all the prospects traded at the deadline. <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/ranking-the-prospects-traded-at-the-deadline/" mce_href="http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/ranking-the-prospects-traded-at-the-deadline/" style="color: rgb(200, 24, 29) !important; text-decoration: none !important;">Again over at Fangraphs</a>, Eric Longenhagen had Taylor Hearn, Harold Ramirez and Reese McGuire all ranked in the same tier with a FV grade of 40 which he projects to bench or middle reliever, which was players 18-25 of the 42 players moved. FWIW, he listed Hearn above Ramirez and Ramirez above McGuire.</div>
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6.) There is a clamorous debate about whether the Pirates improved themselves for 2016 at the deadline. I'll pass on that, but the Pirates have undoubtedly gone a long way to strengthening their bullpen for 2017. With Tony Watson under contract the Pirates have a formidable trio of lefties in Watson, Felipe Rivero and Antonio Bastardo if he returns to his odd-year form in 2017. Others under team control for next year include Juan Nicasio, Jared Hughes, A.J Schugel and Arquimedes Caminero. It would figure that Neftali Feliz who, coming off this strong bounce-back season might command something like $21M/3 years, will be out of the Pirates price range.</div>
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On the Field:</div>
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7.) The Pirates bullpen has been lights out since late June. Here are some numbers since June 25, yep an arbitrary endpoint: 29 Games, 119 IP (4.1/gm), 1.89 ERA, 1.092 WHIP, 8.9 K/9, 24.9 K%, 2.6 BB/9, 7.2 BB%, 0.68 HR/9. The Pirates are 18-12 during that stretch, .600 baseball. Play .600 the rest of the way and they will finish with 88 wins.</div>
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8.) I have no idea how to describe Gerrit Cole's season. He's made 16 starts, but only thrown 92.1 innings, less than 6IP/start. But his numbers are outstanding and his peripherals solid. Meaningful? Meaningless? The team in 8-8 in his starts. He hasn't had an 8 strikeout game this season and he's only had 4 double-digit K games in 89 career starts. (Liriano has had three this year.) His fastball often appears flat, as was the case last night, and when that's the case he has trouble putting guys away in 2-strike counts. He threw 34 pitches to 11 batters with 2-strike counts last night, a really high number. Here is how they went (not sequenced by pitch):</div>
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1 pitch, popout</div>
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1 pitch, K (Freeman)</div>
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2 pitches, ball, single</div>
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7 pitches, 5 fouls, ball, double</div>
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4 pitches, 2 fouls, ball, K</div>
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3 pitches, ball, foul, double</div>
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2 pitches, foul, K (Freeman)</div>
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6 pitches, 4 fouls, ball, double</div>
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3 pitches, ball, foul, single</div>
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4 pitches, 2 fouls, ball, ground out</div>
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1 pitch, K (Freeman)</div>
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34 pitches, only 6 balls and didn't walk a batter. But 5 of the 11 reached base via hit and he gave up 15 foul balls. That's how you throw 97 pitches in five innings walking only two. Thank goodness for Freddie Freeman.</div>
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9.) Francisco Liriano and Jon Niese lead the Pirates in innings pitched going into tonight's game in Atlanta. Jeff Locke, making the start tonight, is third.</div>
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10.) Schedule for the next 3 series:</div>
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Pirates (8): @ ATL (2), Cin (3), SD (3)</div>
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Marlins (7): ChiC (1), Col (3), @ SF (3)</div>
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Mets (8): Yanks (2), Det (3), @ AZ (3)</div>
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Cards (8): Cin (2), @ ATL (3), @ Cin (3)</div>
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LAD (8): Col (2), @ Bos (3), @ Phil (3)</div>
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This would be a great time to run off six in a row or seven of eight. Locke, Vogelsong, Taillon and Nova are making the next four starts.</div>
David Toddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09380511200796084349noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2191763794537973946.post-2950638925730770672016-07-31T07:34:00.005-07:002016-07-31T07:35:31.336-07:00Ranking the Pirates MVP Through the first 100 Games<div style="font-family: Arial, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 16px; margin-bottom: 1em;">
After seemingly not having an off day for months, the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/teams/pittsburgh-pirates" mce_href="http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/teams/pittsburgh-pirates" style="text-decoration: none !important;"><span style="color: black;">Pirates</span></a> have three in eight days going into Monday's trade deadline, so plenty of time to kill. Rather than propose 50 different unlikely-to-happen trade scenarios, I thought I take a stab at an MVP vote for the Pirates to this point in the season. I'm sure there will be plenty of different opinions on this, but one thing is for sure. Nobody's list is going to look remotely close to what they would have predicted at the beginning of the season.</div>
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From 10 to 1, here it is:</div>
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<b>10B.) <span style="color: black;">Jung Ho Kang</span>:</b></div>
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The <span style="color: black;"><a href="http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/breaking/ct-jung-ho-kang-accused-sexual-assault-in-chicago-20160705-story.html" target="_blank">sexual assault allegations</a> </span>that surfaced on July 5th undoubtedly are weighing on Kang. It's unclear exactly when he was made aware of them, but since the time they were made public he's slashed .184/.262/.289, for a .551 OPS. He's now splitting time with <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/players/32990/david-freese" mce_href="http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/players/32990/david-freese" style="text-decoration: none !important;"><span style="color: black;">David Freese</span></a> at third. Kang has made a nice recovery from his injury and is playing an excellent defensive third base. Maybe his three-run double on Wednesday will lead to better things down the stretch.</div>
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<b>10A.) <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/players/31374/sean-rodriguez" mce_href="http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/players/31374/sean-rodriguez" style="text-decoration: none !important;"><span style="color: black;">Sean Rodriguez</span></a>:</b></div>
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The change in Sean Rodriguez in his age-31 season is pretty remarkable. SRod came into the season with a career slash line of .228/.295/.371, a .666 OPS and an 85 OPS+. Last season with the Pirates he drew five walks in 240 PA. This year in 207 PA, he's hitting .247/.330/.495, .825 with a 117 OPS+ and 19 walks. He's played excellent defense at five different positions and his ability to adequately handle shortstop means the Pirates don't have to carry an extra glove, as they have in years past, to give <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/players/70525/jordy-mercer" mce_href="http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/players/70525/jordy-mercer" style="text-decoration: none !important;"><span style="color: black;">Jordy Mercer</span></a> the occasional day off. If he's higher on your list I won't argue.</div>
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<b>9.) <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/players/31848/matt-joyce" mce_href="http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/players/31848/matt-joyce" style="text-decoration: none !important;"><span style="color: black;">Matt Joyce</span></a>:</b></div>
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I didn't think <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/players/276540/matt-joyce" mce_href="http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/players/276540/matt-joyce" style="text-decoration: none !important;"><span style="color: black;">Joyce</span></a> should make the club out of spring training. I was more interested in seeing <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/players/189881/jason-rogers" mce_href="http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/players/189881/jason-rogers" style="text-decoration: none !important;"><span style="color: black;">Jason Rogers</span></a> off the bench even though that would have meant the Pirates lacked a left-handed bat for that role. Wow was I wrong. Who saw this coming? .283/.412/.559, .971 OPS. The only thing keeping Joyce from being in the top half of this list is he only has 177 PA. What a bounce back season at age 32. Along with SRod, <span style="color: black;"><a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/players/276518/david-freese" mce_href="http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/players/276518/david-freese" style="text-decoration: none !important;"><span style="color: black;">David Freese</span></a> and <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/players/244835/adam-frazier" mce_href="http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/players/244835/adam-frazier" style="text-decoration: none !important;"><span style="color: black;">Adam Frazier</span></a></span>, the Pirates the best bench in baseball.</div>
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<b>8-7.) <span style="color: black;"><a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/players/69218/neftali-feliz" mce_href="http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/players/69218/neftali-feliz" style="text-decoration: none !important;"><span style="color: black;">Neftali Feliz</span></a> and <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/players/126706/tony-watson" mce_href="http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/players/126706/tony-watson" style="text-decoration: none !important;"><span style="color: black;">Tony Watson</span></a></span>:</b></div>
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Placing relievers on a list like this is always the most difficult decision for me. Both of these guys have been outstanding but I'll give Watson the slight nod because he has pitched 44.0 innings vs 39.1 for Feliz. After back-to-back rough outings on June 4th & 5th Watson has made 20 appearances and given up one run in 20 innings. Opponents are hitting .186/.240/.229 during this stretch.</div>
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It's hard to chose between Joyce, Freese and Feliz as Neal Huntington's best free agent offseason acquisition. At $3.9 million Feliz seemed to be a bit of an overpay. He's been worth all of that and more. From day one Hurdle slotted him into the seventh inning role and he's delivered with 45 Ks in 39.1 innings and a WHIP under 1.000.</div>
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<b>6.) David Freese:</b></div>
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Another great offseason pickup by Neal Huntington. I'm not sure who the Pirates starting third baseman is right now. Freese is putting up his best numbers since this All-Star 2012 season and has been a capable corner infielder. The fact that he's had about 100 more PAs than Kang, SRod and Joyce moves him above them.</div>
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<b>5.) Jordy Mercer:</b></div>
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This for sure will be the most-controversial ranking on the list and if you wanted to move Mercer back, I'd understand. While the defensive metrics aren't as kind to Jordy this year as they have been in the past, he continues to be a very consistent, reliable glove at the most important defensive position. Jordy's also having the best offensive season of his career. After posting a 69 OPS+ last year, he's at 103 this year and continues to rake against lefties with a .889 OPS. I think he's the most underrated player on the team.</div>
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<b>4.) <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/players/151538/gerrit-cole" mce_href="http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/players/151538/gerrit-cole" style="text-decoration: none !important;"><span style="color: black;">Gerrit Cole</span></a>:</b></div>
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Cole was equally difficult to place on this list and before Wednesday's superb first career complete game I might have put him behind Watson/Feliz. My knock on Cole this year is that he hasn't given the Pirates the innings you would expect from a front-of-the-rotation starter. In 15 starts he's only thrown 87.1 innings, an average of less than six an outing. But he's put up good numbers and the Pirates are going to need him to be dominant down the stretch and in the wild card game if they make the playoffs.</div>
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<b>3.) <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/players/31796/mark-melancon" mce_href="http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/players/31796/mark-melancon" style="text-decoration: none !important;"><span style="color: black;">Mark Melancon</span></a>:</b></div>
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Apparently the Pirates are at least <span style="color: black; text-decoration: none;"><a href="http://www.bucsdugout.com/2016/7/29/12325000/nationals-other-teams-pursuing-trade-for-pirates-mark-melancon" mce_href="http://www.bucsdugout.com/2016/7/29/12325000/nationals-other-teams-pursuing-trade-for-pirates-mark-melancon" style="text-decoration: none !important;">exploring the idea of dealing Melancon</a> (which they now have done)</span>. While I understand the logic, anyone is available for the right price, it still would surprise me if it actually happens. Melancon's peripherals don't stack up with some of the other names on the market, but his results stack up with anyone's. It's hard to put a guy who has only pitched 41.2 innings this high on any list, but Melancon continues to be outstanding. The strikeout numbers aren't impressive, but he doesn't walk anyone, generates a ton of soft contact and has a WHIP under 1.000. There is zero chance the Pirates offer Melancon a qualifying offer at the end of the season, in my opinion, but think it will be fascinating to see what kind of offers he gets. Regardless of whether he's traded or leaves in free agency, he is in the books as having maybe the best four-year run by a reliever in Pirates history.</div>
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<b>2.) <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/players/151888/gregory-polanco" mce_href="http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/players/151888/gregory-polanco" style="text-decoration: none !important;"><span style="color: black;">Gregory Polanco</span></a>:</b></div>
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A breakout season for Polanco at age 24. It was pretty much a coin flip between he and Marte for the top spot. From day one of this year Polanco has show great plate discipline and a much-improved ability to handle lefthanders. He looks to be a perennial All-Star and top 10 MVP candidate for years to come.</div>
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<b>1.) <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/players/107987/starling-marte" mce_href="http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/players/107987/starling-marte" style="text-decoration: none !important;"><span style="color: black;">Starling Marte</span></a>:</b></div>
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Marte is slightly improved plate discipline away from being one of the ten best players in the NL. Although his home run numbers are down this year he is a legit five-tool star. He got the nod over Polanco due to defense and base running. His 36 stolen bases lead the majors and are just five off his career high. I still don't think Marte has tapped his full potential, but he's close. He and Polanco will form the core of this team for years to come.</div>
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At the beginning of the year every list ranking the Pirates best players would likely have included <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/players/32599/andrew-mccutchen" mce_href="http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/players/32599/andrew-mccutchen" style="text-decoration: none !important;"><span style="color: black;">Andrew McCutchen</span></a>, <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/players/31106/francisco-cervelli" mce_href="http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/players/31106/francisco-cervelli" style="text-decoration: none !important;"><span style="color: black;">Francisco Cervell</span></a><a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/players/31106/francisco-cervelli" mce_href="http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/players/31106/francisco-cervelli" style="text-decoration: none !important;"><span style="color: black;">i</span></a>, <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/players/1197/francisco-liriano" mce_href="http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/players/1197/francisco-liriano" style="text-decoration: none !important;"><span style="color: black;">Francisco Liriano</span></a> and <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/players/70701/josh-harrison" mce_href="http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/players/70701/josh-harrison" style="text-decoration: none !important;"><span style="color: black;">Josh Harrison</span></a>. The fact that none of those guys made the list and the team is still four games over .500 bodes well if at least a few of them revert to form.</div>
David Toddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09380511200796084349noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2191763794537973946.post-66839990242787163372016-07-28T11:13:00.002-07:002016-07-28T11:13:10.308-07:00Podcasts with Joe Sheehan and Tim WilliamsJoe and Tim are weekly guests on my show. Joe, author of <a href="http://joesheehan.com/" target="_blank">the Joe Sheehan Newsletter</a> and contributor to Sports Illustrated and others, at 5:00 on Tuesdays and Tim, editor of Pirates Prospects, at 5:00 on Wednesdays. (Of course they both joined me at 4:30 this week, so that is not etched in stone.)<br />
<br />
On <a href="http://espnpgh.iheart.com/media/play/27182483/" target="_blank">Tuesday Joe and I discussed</a> the Chapman trade, playoff probabilities and how teams should view the buy/sell decision and what the Pirates should do going into the trade deadline on Monday.<br />
<br />
On Wednesday Tim became the first guest ever not only to stay through one break, but two. Pirates Prospects released their updated Top 50 list and we took an in-depth look at the list and also debated our differing views as to whether the Bucs should look to move so-to-be free agent Mark Melancon even thought they are only a couple games out of a wild card spot. (<a href="http://espnpgh.iheart.com/media/play/27185679/" target="_blank">Part 1</a>, <a href="http://espnpgh.iheart.com/media/play/27185689/" target="_blank">part 2</a>, <a href="http://espnpgh.iheart.com/media/play/27185751/" target="_blank">part 3</a>)<br />
<br />
I hope you enjoy the conversations as much as I did.David Toddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09380511200796084349noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2191763794537973946.post-54019213174577248162016-07-24T09:17:00.001-07:002016-07-24T09:19:02.829-07:00A Quick Look at the Dominating Run by the Pirates' BullpenThe Pirates bullpen provided another solid outing yesterday, 6 IP, 8 H, 2 R, 0 BB, 8 K. Not quite as good as the dominating stretch we saw right before the All-Star break, but still very good. Over the last 30 days, from June 24, <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2016&month=3&season1=2016&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=18,d" target="_blank">the Pirates bullpen has been the best in baseball.</a> With the Pirates starters continually failing to go deep in games, the Bucs pen has pitched 104.1 innings in the 24 games played over that stretch, an astounding average of 4.1 innings/game, the most of any team.<br />
<br />
During this run they have posted a 1.98 ERA (2nd), a 3.15 FIP (3rd) and a 3.55 xFIP (5th). The reason the Bucs are a little lower on the list in xFIP is that they have done an excellent job of keeping the ball in the park, allowing only 8 HRs, 0.69 HR/9 (3rd) during the current stretch with a GB% of 48.7% (5th). They've also done a great job of preventing batters who reach base from scoring with a league-best <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/library/pitching/lob/" target="_blank">LOB%</a> of 88.6%. (<a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2011&month=0&season1=1901&ind=0&team=0,ss&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=12,d" target="_blank">League average tends to come in around 70-72% depending on the season</a>.) They have accumulated 1.6 WAR (1st) and are 9-1 (if you care about assigning wins & losses) with 11 saves (1st). Their 23.9% K-rate ranks 8th and their 6.6% BB-rate is 5th. Looking at some of the more advanced metrics, <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2011&month=0&season1=1901&ind=0&team=0,ss&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=12,d" target="_blank">the Pirates also lead in WPA and RE24</a>.<br />
<br />
Here is a look at <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2016&month=3&season1=2016&ind=0&team=27&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=7,d" target="_blank">the individiual performances of the ten relievers</a> who have seen action during this span. What stands out is how good a job Clint Hurdle has done of spreading out the workload among the group:<br />
<br />
Games/Innings/Runs<br />
<br />
Juan Nicasio 11 18.1 5<br />
Jared Hughes 11 13.2 3<br />
Tony Watson 13 13.0 1<br />
Arquimedes Canminero 11 12.2 2<br />
A.J. Schugel 11 12.2 5<br />
Mark Melancon 13 12.1 2<br />
Neftali Feliz 13 12.0 3<br />
Jon Niese 3 7.1 2<br />
Jeff Locke 1 2.1 0<br />
Kyle Lobstein 1 0.0 0<br />
<br />
Currently the Pirates are 50-47, 8.5 back of the Cubs in the NL Central and 3.0 games back of the second wild card spot with 65 game to play. With the trade deadline 8 days away it is going to be interesting to see if Neal Huntington seeks to add to the bullpen. The Pirates should have plenty of options once rosters expand September 1, but will Huntington look to supplement this group before then? One thing seems certain, the continuing struggles of the Pirates starters mean the bullpen may well decide the team's playoff fate.David Toddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09380511200796084349noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2191763794537973946.post-17139130208369978842016-07-21T23:50:00.000-07:002016-07-24T04:37:08.482-07:00A Decent (Contract) Proposal: The Pirates and Gerrit Cole<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjVBYpkficGD5AWKjmVX3RIWaPVrk_2adJoxL9UiQfocYNNLbgUYIJkmsvjR0rQ4paYNGe-ZacGTybeFS1hlHmGbFpGcPepQHpQc5-8tz5W6wPQI4lKUMLMsAylawqaIAaS1F-kpS3gHsrF/s1600/G.+Cole.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjVBYpkficGD5AWKjmVX3RIWaPVrk_2adJoxL9UiQfocYNNLbgUYIJkmsvjR0rQ4paYNGe-ZacGTybeFS1hlHmGbFpGcPepQHpQc5-8tz5W6wPQI4lKUMLMsAylawqaIAaS1F-kpS3gHsrF/s400/G.+Cole.jpeg" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
The May 10th announcement that Stephen Strasburg had signed a seven-year, $175 million deal with the Washington Nationals was about as surprising as news gets in the world of major league baseball. The 27-year old righty, the number one overall pick in the 2009 amateur draft, was due to be a free agent at the end of the season. Strasburg was going to be the jewel in <a href="http://www.si.com/mlb/2016/05/10/stephen-strasburg-contract-extension-free-agency" target="_blank">an otherwise dreadful crop of scheduled-to-be free agent pitchers.</a> Zack Greinke's six-year, $206 million deal and David Price's seven-year, $217 million deal, both signed this past offseason, were expected to be baselines for his agent Scott Boras, the agent known as being the most aggressive in having his clients pursue free agency, in any negotiation. Instead, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/nationals-journal/wp/2016/05/10/a-laughing-stephen-strasburg-im-really-really-happy-with-contract-extension/" target="_blank">when Nationals owner Ted Lerner reached out to Boras about a long-term deal and Strasburg expressed interest</a>, a deal got done.<br />
<br />
Strasburg's career has had its ups and downs. He debuted June 8, 2010 against the Pirates striking out 14 and walking none in a 5-2 Nationals win. But he only made 12 starts that year, tearing his UCL and undergoing Tommy John surgery in September. A year later he made five September starts and then was famously shutdown the following September during a dominating 2012 season (197K, 48BB, 15 HR, 2.83 FIP in 159.1IP) when he reached the Nationals self-imposed innings limit, not pitching in the postseason as the Nats were eliminated by the St. Louis Cardinals. Strasburg pitched a career-high 215 innings in 2014, but various ailments limited him to 127.1 innings last year. This season Strasburg has been fantastic and is on pace to put up the best numbers of his career.<br />
<br />
Like Strasburg, Gerrit Cole was a number one overall pick, selected by the Pirates in 2011. Like Strasburg, Cole is represented by Boras. Like Strasburg, Cole has experienced big success, he finished fourth in NL Cy Young voting last year, but has also had difficulty staying healthy. So does the Strasburg signing now make the unthinkable idea of a Cole extension possible?<br />
<br />
I think it does.<br />
<br />
We can go through a list of players who might be viewed as comparable to Cole and try to triangulate a first-year arbitration award in 2017. If you look at the numbers of Alex Cobb, Jose Fernandez, Garrett Richards and Jake Arrieta among others I think $5 million seems a reasonable guess today for Cole's projected arbitration salary this coming offseason. (The idea here is to present a general framework rather than get bogged down on the specific numbers for each season.)<br />
<br />
Using that as a starting point and assuming Cole is able to sustain front-of-the-rotation type performance (and why would the Pirates do the deal if they didn't believe that), $9-11 million and $14-16 million would seem to be reasonable projections for 2018-19. The estimates may slightly skew to the high-side for Cole even though we are continuing to see a rapidly-increasing pay scale for starting pitching, but they seem reasonable.<br />
<br />
Simply using $5M, $10M, $15M for the next three seasons means Gerrit Cole would make $30M from 2017-2019 if he is able to maintain his level of performance.<br />
<br />
From this point it's more art than science. The Strasburg deal has certain levels of complexity that the Pirates are not likely to propose. Under the terms of his deal with the Nats Strasburg gets paid $18.333M in each of the next two seasons, what would have been his first two years of free agency, and then $38.333M in 2019, after which there is a player opt-out. The deal is uniquely structured over the final four years as well if Strasburg elects to stay in DC giving him the opportunity to realize the full $175 million.<br />
<br />
I am proposing a far-simpler deal for Cole and the Pirates. A five-year, $70 million deal. It would pay Cole $20 million for each of his two free agency seasons, 2020 and 2021, in addition to the $30 million outlined above.<br />
<br />
<b>Why the Pirates Do the Deal</b><br />
<ul>
<li>Cost certainty. Much like the deals they have done with McCutchen, Marte, Harrison and Polanco this gives the Pirates cost certainty through Cole's arbitration years while buying out his first two years of free agency.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Below-market free agency seasons. $20M is well below-market for today's front-line starters and will be even more so four years from now. If Cole pitches like he did in 2015, in 2019 and 2020, $20M will be a steal. </li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Revenues are continuing to skyrocket. The vast majority of MLB's new national television dollars will be paid out over the next five years and the Pirates local television deal will come up for renewal. They can afford this deal.</li>
</ul>
<b>Why Cole Does the Deal</b><br />
<ul>
<li>$70 million is a lot of money. Guaranteed. Cole was given an $8M signing bonus when he signed a minor league deal with the team five years ago after being drafted number one overall. (Boras and Cole turned down an $8.5M major league deal running through 2016 at the time because they projected the deal they signed to be worth an additional $1.4M. Turns out it will be closer to an additional $2M.) But $70M is generational-changing wealth.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Pitchers get hurt. The old line about there being two kinds of pitchers, those that have been injured and those who will be injured seems more true today than ever before. Coming back from Tommy John seems almost routine today, but even that isn't guaranteed. Cole hasn't suffered a serious injury, but he has been on the disabled list in two of his three full major league seasons.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>He would still hit free agency at the relatively young age of 31. Greinke just got $206M guaranteed in free agency coming into his age-32 season. Cole will still get a monster contract if he performs.</li>
</ul>
<b>Why the Pirates Don't Do the Deal</b><br />
<ul>
<li>The team operates on a very tight, self-imposed budget. Cole would stand to make well over 10% of total payroll in 2019 when he's making a mere $15M. The Bucs have already committed $11.5M to Francisco Cervelli, $10.3M to Starling Marte and $6.1M to Gregory Polanco in '19 so that means they would have over $40M tied up in four players.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Pitchers get hurt (see above). A career-ending injury to a player on this type of deal could derail the Pirates' financial plans for years.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>They have a full pipeline of good young pitchers. Jameson Taillon, Tyler Glasnow, Chad Kuhl and Steven Brault all made their debuts in the last two months. They are affordable and controllable and there appear to be more talented young starters behind them.</li>
</ul>
<b>Why Cole Doesn't Do the Deal</b><br />
<ul>
<li>While $70M is a helluva lot of money Cole will be seriously underpaid in 2020 and '21 if he is a front-of-the-rotation starter.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>While pitchers do get hurt, Strasburg is just the latest example of a pitcher to hit the mother lode after Tommy John surgery.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><a href="http://www.sportingnews.com/mlb/news/pirates-neal-huntington-regret-contract-offer-mistake-to-gerrit-cole-mlb/3rknxiyfzca91r6sz8dhbbu1o" target="_blank">This</a> will have no bearing on a deal getting done one way or the other.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
</ul>
<b>Conclusion:</b><br />
<ul>
<li>I've presented this deal to a bunch of people in the industry. The response has been mixed, which is exactly what I expected. There isn't a consensus that the deal is overly favorable for either side. Those generally are the type of deals that have a chance to get done. With Cole coming back from injury and still three-plus years away from free agency, now might be the perfect time for both sides.</li>
</ul>
David Toddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09380511200796084349noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2191763794537973946.post-59343310952463791282016-07-15T06:39:00.000-07:002016-07-15T06:46:29.498-07:00The Pirates Upcoming Roster Crunch<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhP32NDUOSGbqRKwUlj5qKxLH-gU-POV2v-hFK5_fW0dr8ezE8ESqlUsAnS6Ie4Nwzv-TWSOJXcNJ3tx9Xbe9778dg1Mt3PgAn0YTR34K9hyphenhyphen2EqIqByX3OCVC00-XwtdSYXAHw_AmdG-Tcq/s1600/Gerrit+Cole.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="424" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhP32NDUOSGbqRKwUlj5qKxLH-gU-POV2v-hFK5_fW0dr8ezE8ESqlUsAnS6Ie4Nwzv-TWSOJXcNJ3tx9Xbe9778dg1Mt3PgAn0YTR34K9hyphenhyphen2EqIqByX3OCVC00-XwtdSYXAHw_AmdG-Tcq/s640/Gerrit+Cole.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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The Pirates return to action Friday against the Washington Nationals. After having virtually no days off in the two month run-up to the All-Star game, the Pirates will have three days off leading up to the August 1st non-waiver trade deadline and they will be off that day as well. The schedule and the impending roster crunch provide Neal Huntington opportunities and challenges in dealing with the 25- and 40-man rosters. </div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<br />
Let's take a look at the current roster and speculate on how things may play out over the next 16 days. Here is the Pirates current active roster, players on the disabled list and some others who have been active this year as of Thursday:<br />
<br />
<b><u>Catchers (2)</u>: </b>Eric Fryer, Erik Kratz<br />
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<b><u>Infielders (7): </u></b>John Jaso, Josh Harrison, Jordy Mercer, Jung Ho Kang, David Freese, Sean Rodriguez, Josh Bell<br />
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<b><u>Outfielders (5): </u></b>Gregory Polanco, Andrew McCutchen, Starling Marte, Matt Joyce, Adam Frazier<br />
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<b><u>Starting Pitchers (4): </u></b>Francisco Liriano, Jeff Locke, Jon Niese, Chad Kuhl<br />
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<b><u>Relief Pitchers (7): </u></b>Mark Melancon, Tony Watson, Neftali Feliz, Juan Nicasio, Arquimedes Caminero, A.J. Schugel, Jared Hughes<br />
<br />
<b><u>Disabled List (6):</u></b><br />
<b><u>Catchers:</u></b><br />
Francisco Cervelli (15-day DL, currently eligible to be activated), Chris Stewart (15-day DL, eligible to come off July 18), Elias Diaz (60-day DL, currently eligible to be activated)<br />
<b><u><br /></u></b>
<b><u>Pitchers: </u></b>Gerrit Cole (15-day DL, currently eligible to be activated), Jameson Taillon (15-day DL, eligible to come off July 16), Ryan Vogelsong (60-day DL, eligible to come off July 23)<br />
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<b><u>In Indy, Been Up This Year and on 40-man (5): </u></b>Alen Hanson, Jason Rogers, Steven Brault, Wilfredo Boscan, Kyle Lobstein<br />
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That's 36 players in total and means there are hundreds of different scenarios as to how things can play out going into the trade deadline. Let's take a shot. This is not necessarily exactly how I would do things, this is what I expect Neal Huntington and the Pirates to do.<br />
<br />
Thursday the Pirates announced their starting rotation for the weekend series. Francisco Liriano will start Friday, Gerrit Cole will be activated from the disabled list and start Saturday and, in a bit of a surprise, Chad Kuhl will start on Sunday. Kuhl is a complete head-scratcher. He has not been impressive in his first three career starts. The only rationale behind the Pirates decision that I can come up with is they want to start a RHP versus <a href="http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/stats/splits/_/name/wsh/washington-nationals" target="_blank">the Nationals who have a team OPS of .835 vs. lefties and .732 vs. righties</a>. Okay, so that rules out Locke/Niese, but why choose Kuhl over Taillon who is eligible to come off the disabled list Friday? I'm guessing the Pirates don't want Cole and Taillon pitching back-to-back in the rotation. I'll come back to that in a second.<br />
<br />
The Pirates will have one important decision to make before playing any games against the Nats. They'll have to determine if Gregory Polanco is able to play or if he needs to go on the 15-day DL retroactive to Saturday, July 9. I'll guess Polanco is refreshed by the week off and remains active and starts in right field over the weekend.<br />
<br />
When the Pirates activate Cole Saturday it will get them back to their preferred 12-man pitching staff, meaning a position player will be sent down (If Polanco goes on the DL, Cole will take his spot and the following discussion is moot). There are only two choices here, Bell or Adam Frazier. Bell's weekend debut was the stuff of lore, but my guess is he is sent out Saturday. Frazier has been solid in his time up with the club. Remember it was his 8-pitch walk off of Jake Arrieta that preceded Bell's first career hit that ignited the Pirates winning rally last Friday against the Cubs. Frazier provides more versatility than Bell (although he is an outfielder in name only, probably no better than Bell, but for obvious reasons the Pirates aren't going to use Bell in the outfield after two years away from the position) and can be used as a pinch-runner. I know this will disappoint Pirates fans, but I think that's the likely move.<br />
<br />
The next move comes after the Pirates day off on Monday. As mentioned Jameson Taillon is eligible to come off the disabled list Friday, July 15. Taillon, along with Liriano and Cole are the only three starters guaranteed to be in the Pirates rotation on August 2. I expect the Pirates to activate Taillon Tuesday for the start of the series against Milwaukee. This will then situate Liriano between Taillon and Cole in the rotation, which is the desired alignment, the lefty between two hard-throwing righties. With Taillon active another pitcher has to go and Chad Kuhl is the obvious answer. Reports suggest the Pirates are actively trying to move both Jeff Locke and Jon Niese, but I don't expect other teams to bite this early for such marginal guys, so Kuhl's gone. Taillon-Liriano-Cole start versus the Brewers.<br />
<br />
Now let's look at the position players. Next week is going to be the week of the catcher, with there likely to be a complete shuffling of the depth chart at the top of the organization. Francisco Cervelli started a rehab stint at Triple-A Indianapolis Thursday night going 2-for-4 with a walk and catching seven innings. I would imagine Cervelli will get today off and then catch seven-nine innings on Saturday and then see if he can come back and catch again Sunday. If things go smoothly, expect Cervelli to be activated on or around Tuesday for the Brewers series.<br />
<br />
That leads to the easiest of the various roster moves, DFA'ing Erik Kratz. Kratz has had a few good moments during his second stint with the Bucs, but his -27 OPS+ in 50 plate appearances (and at bats, since he has no walks) means he's gone, which also opens up a spot on the 40-man roster. With the open spot, the Pirates can activate Elias Diaz, rehabbing with Class-A Bradenton, from the 60-day DL and send him to Indianapolis.<br />
<br />
Catcher Chris Stewart will also be eligible to come of the DL by the time the Brewers come to town. Stewart's season goes one of two ways: his knee is good enough that he can play through the pain the rest of the season or he has season-ending knee surgery. Let's assume Stewart is good-to-go. That leads to a tough decision. My best guess is the Pirates will send Stewart to Indy for his own rehab stint when Cervelli is activated. If Cervelli proves he is healthy and can be the everyday catcher, then the Pirates activate Stewart sometime between now and the trade deadline. This will lead to the swapping out of the other catcher recently acquired, Eric Fryer. While I'm sure the Pirates would love to somehow keep Fryer in the organization until the rosters expand on September 1, I don't think they will be able to do it. And with Diaz now back, Fryer becomes expendable. I also don't think the Bucs will entertain the idea of carrying three catchers when Stewart comes back. So Fryer is the next to go, creating another 40-man roster spot, and the Pirates have their top three catcher back and active for the first time since early April.<br />
<br />
Back to the pitchers. Now the most difficult decision. Tyler Glasnow is scheduled to start in Indianapolis on Monday. I expect him to make that start. At the major league level the Pirates need a starter not named Taillon, Liriano or Cole for the first two games against the Phillies next Friday and Saturday. If he's on the roster I think Jeff Locke gets the ball Friday night. Saturday is the big decision. If no trades or other roster moves have been made to that point the Pirates will have the option of starting Jon Niese or recalling Tyler Glasnow and making a corresponding roster move. The complicating factor here is the Pirates will only play six games in the following nine days, with days off Monday, Thursday and the following Monday. After the Saturday start they could comfortably operate with a 4-man rotation until Saturday, August 6th against the Reds, but they may prefer to give the starters as much rest as possible.<br />
<br />
So that becomes the big question. Do the Pirates bring up Tyler Glasnow, essentially for good, a week before the deadline and make a corresponding roster move, (DFA'ing Jon Niese would appear to be the most obvious although they could option Jared Hughes to the minors and put Niese in the pen), or do they give Jon Niese the ball one more time and hope for the best? I'd prefer Glasnow, but I'm guessing it will be Niese as Huntington tries to manage his assets as aggressively as possible until the deadline without having to give anything away.<br />
<br />
If the Pirates were to DFA Niese and he did clear waivers they could outright him to Indianapolis and look to recall him September 1 when rosters expand, or earlier if needed. As a six-year veteran Niese would have the right to refuse the assignment and become a free agent and the Pirates would still be obligated for the remainder of his salary.<br />
<br />
After that decision it would appear to be relatively smooth-sailing until the deadline. Ryan Vogelsong will be eligible to come off the 60-day DL on July 23. If Fryer is DFA'd there will be an open 40-man spot for him, but there wouldn't appear to be a spot on the 25-man unless someone goes down with an injury or a trade opens things up. Vogelsong pitched for Altoona on July 10. so the Pirates have 30 days from that date to activate him. I'd expect Neal to use almost all of that time to make a decision.<br />
<br />
The last question is what to do with Josh Bell. If he is sent down on Saturday, he'll be eligible to come back up July 27th. I'll leave that one to you.<br />
<br />David Toddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09380511200796084349noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2191763794537973946.post-454482958252022852016-07-13T10:51:00.002-07:002016-07-15T06:39:46.947-07:00A recap of the Pirates first half <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjtPf18yGg2JaW0jpcOgIkMU37iUuqA35GxTp3g9ZG5YWu9p9jdFd5f7mAwi8zeL0aXE_DNPsWTm6ib4gqdk_MTVFU-Fi4fiB_24ZOHC7amEXTwJXonRq8exQOJFza-WbfiDw3DiWO8-mAo/s1600/Bell+Grand+Slam.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="448" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjtPf18yGg2JaW0jpcOgIkMU37iUuqA35GxTp3g9ZG5YWu9p9jdFd5f7mAwi8zeL0aXE_DNPsWTm6ib4gqdk_MTVFU-Fi4fiB_24ZOHC7amEXTwJXonRq8exQOJFza-WbfiDw3DiWO8-mAo/s640/Bell+Grand+Slam.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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For the six months immediately following the 2015 season I talked continually about how assembling a team for 2016 would be the biggest challenge Neal Huntington faced to-date as the Pirates general manager. Coming off three straight wild card berths the Pirates were a team in transition. I'm sure to his regret, <a href="http://m.mlb.com/news/article/160075644/pittsburgh-pirates-look-for-deeper-run-in-2016/" target="_blank">Huntington used the term "bridge year"</a> in the offseason to describe the upcoming '16 season. While Huntington made it clear that "bridge" did not mean taking a step back, he had to deal with the continuing reality of a draconian, self-imposed budget by owner Bob Nutting and an organizational depth chart loaded with young talent, but talent not ready to immediately contribute. If things were to play out as Huntington envisioned, he'd have to continue his Rumpelstiltskin-esque run to get the Bucs to the All-Star break as a contender.<br />
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The Pirates entered the offseason with a roster that was mostly set with its starting eight, needed to add depth to the bench and bullpen and, most importantly, had serious questions about its starting rotation. The complicating matter was that the Pirates had two minor league starting pitchers viewed as two of the brightest prospects in the game in Jameson Taillon and Tyler Glasnow. In addition, prospects Josh Bell, Elias Diaz and Alen Hanson were all expected to be ready at some point in 2016. The problem was, and it was clear in December, none of those prospects would be ready to head north with the Pirates out of spring training. They all needed at least a couple more months of development in AAA and, of course, the Pirates were going to manage the service-time of Taillon, Glasnow and Bell. That made an early June call-up the earliest any of those three would contribute.<br />
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The young starters created the biggest challenge for Huntington. It was easy back in March to look forward to the '17 season and ink Gerrit Cole, Francisco Liriano, Taillon and Glasnow into the rotation. The problem was getting from here to there. How was Huntington going to cobble together a back-end rotation for 2016 and make sure not to block his star prospects and the other talented starters moving up through the system?<br />
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One obvious answer was to re-sign J.A. Happ. The 32-year old Happ was acquired from the Seattle Mariners at the 2015 trade deadline. <a href="http://banginonthebucs.blogspot.com/2015/08/after-just-one-start-is-it-already-time.html" target="_blank">After a rough first start with the Bucs</a>, Happ was Kershaw-lite the rest of the way going 7-1 with a 1.37 ERA and 63 strikeouts against 11 walks in 59 innings with a .525 OPS-against. No one expected a repeat performance, but the rejuvenated Happ pitching in PNC Park seemed to be a perfect fit for the starter-starved Bucs. Happ instead signed a 3 year/$36 million deal with Toronto and <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/happja01.shtml" target="_blank">is having an excellent season</a>.<br />
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After Happ signed Huntington talked about the price for mid-rotation starting pitchers "blowing up." He was likely being a good employee. I'd be shocked if Huntington was taken aback by MLB's contract escalation. More likely Huntington didn't have the financial resources to shop at the mall, let alone the high-end boutiques. He was forced to go to again to the thrift stores. But even mid-level talent, understandably, wasn't going to sign with the Pirates on the one or two-year deals the Bucs were seeking in order to not block their young pitchers, so they likely never had a chance with Happ.<br />
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The Pirates ended the offseason with a smorgasbord of Jon Niese, Ryan Vogelsong, Juan Nicasio, Kyle Lobestein and Wilfredo Boscan to go with their established starters. After trading Charlie Morton and his $8 million salary in a straight salary dump the opening day starters were penciled in as Cole, Liriano, Niese, Nicasio and Jeff Locke. The results have been even worse than expected. The Bucs starters finished the first half 14th out of 15 in NL fWAR, 14th in HR/9, 13th in BB/9 and 12th in ERA, IP and K/9. Cole has been injured and Liriano has massively underperformed. Niese was acquired in a trade for Neil Walker in a virtual match of salaries. The logic behind the deal for the Bucs was they had a surplus of middle infielders and could replace Walker with Josh Harrison and hope that Niese would be the latest Liriano-to-Volquez-to-Happ baton-carrier in the rotation. Hasn't happened. Niese has been terrible with a 7.92 ERA and eight of his 20 home runs allowed in his last six starts. The Pirates are floating his name in the trade market, but he's more likely to be DFA'd then bring any return at this point. Of the rest, Vogelsong has been injured, Nicasio was miscast as a starter, but now should supplement the bullpen, and Lobstein is in AAA where he belongs. The Pirates have turned to their rookies over the last month, but the results have been lackluster so far:<br />
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<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Pirates?src=hash">#Pirates</a> rookie starters haven’t really given team a big boost (neither have the vets). 10 starts, 50.2IP 4.62 ERA 1.362 WHIP 6.9K/9 2.5BB/9</div>
— David Todd (@DTonPirates) <a href="https://twitter.com/DTonPirates/status/752571759447019521">July 11, 2016</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script>Since Gerrit Cole went down on June 10 the Pirates have played 29 games. Their starters have gotten past the sixth inning only three times while failing to get to through five an astounding 12 times.<br />
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But as bad as the starters have been, the bullpen has stabilized and is coming off a dominant three week stretch. Aside from All-Star closer Mark Melancon everyone in the Pirates bullpen has had their ups-and-downs. After separating the wheat from the chaff (relievers who appeared for the Pirates this season and are not currently on the 25-man roster pitched 80.2 innings and gave up 52 runs), the roles appear set and the pen was the team's catalyst behind their strong first half close. Starting with an 8-6 win over the Dodgers on June 24 the bullpen went 35.2 scoreless innings and only gave up one run in 46.0 innings through a 7-5 July 6 win over the Cardinals. The Pirates went 10-2 and during that stretch the Pirates starters only got past the sixth inning one time. A.J. Schugel, Arquimedes Caminero and Juan Nicasio have stabilized the middle relief and the closing trio of Neftali Feliz-Tony Watson-Mark Melancon have locked down late Pirate leads.<br />
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The Bucs offense has intermittently been very good despite a tremendously disappointing first half from Andrew McCutchen. Young stars Starling Marte and Gregory Polanco, a solid second season from Jung Ho Kang and the best bench in baseball have fueled the run production. Marte earned his first All-Star berth this week and is putting up career-highs in all three triple slash lines and is second in the majors with 30 stolen bases. Polanco, a deserving All-Star, is having a massive breakout season. The contract he signed in April sets him up for life but may prove to be the biggest feather in Huntington's cap, exceeding the massively team-friendly deals signed by Andrew McCutchen and Marte. Kang has mostly continued to impress, although he slumped into the break and <a href="http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/breaking/ct-jung-ho-kang-accused-sexual-assault-in-chicago-20160705-story.html" target="_blank">has serious allegations hanging over his head.</a><br />
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The most surprising offensive contributions have come from the bench. While Huntington's offseason foray into the starting pitching market was a disaster, his position-player signings were just the opposite. Holdover Sean Rodriguez, re-signed to a 1-year/$2.5M deal, has picked up where he left off the last two months of last season with a completely different approach at the plate. After earning five walks in 240 PAs last season, SRod already has 18 in 188 PAs this year. The 31-year old super-sub is blowing away his career numbers and is second on the team in OPS at .870 and playing excellent defense at five different positions. Matt Joyce, signed to a minor league deal in February and making $1M this season, leads the team in OBP and SLG slashing .295/.420/.558 and <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=nl&qual=150&type=8&season=2016&month=0&season1=2016&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=17,d" target="_blank">is tied for the NL lead (min 150 PA) in wRC+</a> with Anthony Rizzo. David Freese, signed midway through spring training to a 1-year/$3M deal, is replicating his 2012 All-Star season,<br />
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David Freese’s all-star 2012 yr:<br />
501 AB, .293/.372/.467 .839 OPS 20 HRs, 79 RBI<br />
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Freese 2016:<br />
254 AB, .291/.373/.472 .845 OPS 10 HRs, 38 RBI</div>
— David Todd (@DTonPirates) <a href="https://twitter.com/DTonPirates/status/752912589047201792">July 12, 2016</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script>At this point it probably isn't fair to call any of the of three bench guys as they are all deservedly (and often necessarily) starting 2-3 games/week. In fact, it might be time to ask whether Rodriguez should supplant Josh Harrison, who is proving to be more the 2011-2013 Harrison than the 2014 JHay All-Star, as the starting second baseman. Like Harrison, Francisco Cervelli was also having a very disappointing season offensively before going down with a broken hamate bone. Cervelli's OBP is actually slightly better than last's year .370, but he has been devoid of any power, slugging a hollow .293 with no homers in 201 PAs. Cervelli's various replacements have been adequate defensively but brought even less to the offense, although recent acquisition Eric Fryer has been a bright spot in limited duty. Shortstop Jordy Mercer and newly-signed first baseman John Jaso have provided league average offense at their positions while being sound defensively.<br />
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That leaves Andrew McCutchen.<br />
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Cutch has been, arguably, the most disappointing player in baseball this season. The fact that there are still questions as to why his performance has tailed off so dramatically reinforces the view that nobody actually has a good answer. Disappointment with his contract, his spot in the batting order, <a href="http://triblive.com/sports/pirates/10675063-74/mccutchen-heel-thumb" target="_blank">a lingering thumb injury that effected his swing plane</a> are three of the many ideas that have been suggested with the last being the only one that would seem to have merit. Players of McCutchen's pedigree and skill-set rarely fall off the performance-precipice the way he has. After four straight seasons finishing in the top five of the NL MVP voting, Cutch wouldn't be in the top five on his own team to this point. The Pirates can only hope he has a <a href="http://www.seattletimes.com/sports/mariners/mariners-2016-spring-training-position-preview-robinson-cano-looks-to-avoid-slow-starts-baserunning-mistakes-and-injuries/" target="_blank">Robinson Cano-like turnaround in the second half.</a><br />
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While it wasn't ideal, the Pirates managed to <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/NL/2016-standings.shtml" target="_blank">get to the ASB with a 46-43 record and currently sit just 1.5 behind in the wild card race</a>. This, without significant contributions from Cole, Liriano, McCutchen and Cervelli four of their six or seven best players entering the season. Now the outlook for this team is completely different. Jameson Taillon is up to stay. Josh Bell and Tyler Glasnow figure to have significant impacts. Gerrit Cole and Francisco Cervelli, along with Taillon, will return from the disabled list shortly after the ASB and the Pirates will play 39 of their remaining 73 games against the Brewers (15), Reds (11), Phillies (7), Braves (3) and Padres (3) who have an aggregate winning percentage of .408. I think 89 wins will get them to the playoffs. That means 43 more wins, .589 baseball. It all starts Friday.<br />
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I'll be back at the end of the week with a look at the important personnel decisions and roster management issues confronting Neal Huntington with just over two weeks to go until the trade deadline.<br />
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*Photo courtesy of Getty Images. Josh Bell celebrating his first career home run, a grand slam in a win over the Chicago Cubs, July 9th. Certainly the highlight moment of the Pirates first half.<br />
<br />David Toddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09380511200796084349noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2191763794537973946.post-88441842065464375942016-07-03T12:30:00.000-07:002016-07-15T06:40:02.074-07:00Free Passes: Starling Marte and Gregory Polanco<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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There is an <a href="http://www.barrypopik.com/index.php/new_york_city/entry/you_cant_walk_your_way_off_the_island_dominican_baseball_adage" target="_blank">old Dominican baseball adage</a> that says "You can't walk off the island." Dominican baseball players are known as free swingers who rarely walk. The Pirates Starling Marte is the personification of the adage.<br />
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Last night in Oakland Starling Marte walked twice, once intentionally. It was the first time Marte has walked twice in one game since August 9th of last year against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Marte was also hit by a pitch in the game against LA. The Pirates other corner outfielder Gregory Polanco, like Marte, is also from the DR. In fact, both were born in Santo Domingo, Distrito Nacional, Marte three years the senior. Polanco also walked twice in that August 9th game against LA. But, unlike Marte, Polanco wasn't hit by a pitch. Apparently nobody was telling Polanco old Dominican adages while he was growing up.<br />
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Let's take a look at what's happened since then:<br />
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<table border="2" bordercolor="#0033FF" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="3" style="background-color: color: white; padding-bottom: 4px; padding-top: 5px;"><tbody>
<tr><th><br /></th><th> PA </th><th>AB</th><th>UIBB</th><th>IBB</th><th>HBP</th></tr>
<tr><td>Starling Marte</td><td> 509</td><td> 473</td><td> 13</td><td> 4</td><td> 16</td></tr>
<tr><td>Gregory Polanco</td><td> 542</td><td> 486</td><td> 43</td><td> 6</td><td> 0</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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The career numbers are even more striking:<br />
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<table border="2" bordercolor="#0033FF" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="3" style="background-color: color: white; padding-bottom: 4px; padding-top: 5px;"><tbody>
<tr><th><br /></th><th> PA </th><th>AB</th><th>UIBB</th><th>IBB</th><th>HBP</th></tr>
<tr><td>Starling Marte</td><td> 2231</td><td> 2035</td><td> 96</td><td> 8 </td><td> 73 </td></tr>
<tr><td>Gregory Polanco</td><td> 1284</td><td> 1147</td><td> 110 </td><td> 12 </td><td> 1 </td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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In about a thousand fewer plate appearances Polanco has now passed Marte in walks. But, in terms of free passes, Marte still has the lead because he's a human cowhide magnet. This ratio will never not amuse me:<br />
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BB:HBP Marte 1.3:1. Polanco 110:1.<br />
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Both are having outstanding seasons. Polanco leads the Pirates (min 200 PA) with an OPS of .872. Marte is second at .860. Marte has the slightly better OBP, .374/.370, while Polanco has the slightly higher SLG, .502/.486. Both are striking out at just over a 20% clip. But at 24, it's Polanco's plate discipline and increased walk rate that has contributed to his breakout 2016 season. His walk rate has increased from 8.8% to 11.5%.<br />
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In contrast Marte is swinging more than ever, sporting a career low walk rate of 3.6%. While Marte has shown that he has developed an HBP "skill," averaging 20/yr over the last three seasons and right on that pace with 10 at the midpoint of this season, one can only imagine the player he could be if he, at the mature age of 27, was as disciplined as his fellow Dominican.<br />
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With Andrew McCutchen struggling it's these two who have been focal point of the Pirates offense. It doesn't feel like either has reached his ceiling. It will be entertaining to watch how they progress in the second half.<br />
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*Image Courtesy of Charles LeClaire, USA Today</div>
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David Toddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09380511200796084349noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2191763794537973946.post-88416653004201771912016-07-01T11:59:00.002-07:002016-07-18T23:22:25.790-07:00The Pirates Flip the Calendar. What it Will Take in the Second Half<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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June was not pretty for the Pirates. An 8-1 win in Seattle Wednesday closed out the Pirates worst month since the start of the 2013 season. The Bucs finished 9-19, for a .321 winning percentage. It was only the team's second losing month since the start of 2013 and their worst month since the dramatic collapses of 2011 when they went 8-22, .267 in August and 2012 when they went 7-21, .250 in September.<br />
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Vegas certainly hasn't liked what they've seen from the Pirates of late. Bovada had the Pirates as 20:1 shots to win the World Series on May 3. By June 1 those odds had risen to 28:1. The disaster that was June has reset the number at 66:1. (Hey wasn't that Mario's number?) But all is not lost. Coming into today's action the Pirates still only find themselves 3.5 games out of a wild card spot with 83 games to play.<br />
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Looking back at history, only three World Series Champions in the last 16 years have gone the entire season without a losing month, so stretches of subpar play are not uncommon. However only three of those teams endured months below .400, the 2015 Royals (11-17, .393 in September), the 2014 Giants (10-16, .385 in June), and the 2006 Cardinals (9-16, .360 in June) and obviously none did as poorly as the Pirates did in June.<br />
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The Pirates have a big 10-game stretch starting tonight heading into the All-Star break. They open with three in Oakland against the A's, go to St. Louis for four with the Cards and close with three at home against the Cubs. Any result .500 or above would be a good start heading into the four-day break.<br />
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After the break the schedule turns a bit more favorable for the Bucs. My on-going mantra on the show is "Beat the bad teams, play .500 against the good teams and it will all work out." Of their remaining 73 games the Pirates will play 16 vs Milwaukee (.449), 11 vs Cincinnati (.363), 7 vs Philadelphia (.438), 3 vs Atlanta (.342) and 3 vs San Diego (.418). That's 40 games against teams with an average winning percentage of .412. If the Bucs are able to win two-thirds of those games that would be 26 wins. If they win half, 17 of the remaining 33, that would be 43 wins after the break. If they win six of their remaining ten before the break, that's 49 wins which would leave them with a record of 87-75.<br />
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My guess is that might leave them a game or two short of the wild card. I think 89 wins will get them into the wild card game for the fourth consecutive year. The rest of the season starts tonight. Enjoy the ride.David Toddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09380511200796084349noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2191763794537973946.post-59288362402010468042016-06-29T19:00:00.002-07:002016-07-15T06:40:33.574-07:00UPDATED POSTGAME--A Scouting Report on Jameson Taillon Going into his 5th Career StartJameson Taillon had a strong outing and notched his second major league victory in the Pirates 8-1 win over the Mariners Wednesday night. After admittedly having trouble commanding his curveball last time out, Taillon's curve was excellent this time around. Taillon struggled a bit in the first, but then settled in, retiring ten in a row before giving up a leadoff double to start the fifth. He used all four pitches effectively and finished with a line of 6IP, 6H, 1R, 0BB, 6K, 95-68.<br />
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Adding last night's outing to the chart provided below, here are his first five career starts (innings pitched/pitches/swings-and-misses/strikeouts):<br />
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6/8 6.0-91-5-3<br />
6/14 8.0-91-6-5<br />
6/19 4.0-85-5-5<br />
6/24 4.0-70-4-2 (pitched to 3 batters in the 5th)<br />
6/29 6.0-95-8-6<br />
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Last night he posted career-highs in pitches, swings-and-misses and strikeouts. Taillon was efficient through five throwing between 11 and 16 pitches in each inning, but a 28-pitch sixth, highlighted by a fantastic 13-pitch at bat by Seth Smith, meant the end of the night.<br />
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Taillon did get four of his eight swinging strikes in the sixth and showcased his best two-seam fastball, back-to-back, to K Nelson Cruz. After falling behind 3-1, Taillon got a swinging strike on a perfectly located 95-mph sinker that moved down and in, and then came right back with another 95-mph two seamer on the outside corner that Cruz waved at for strike three.<br />
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Here is how Taillon finished off his six punchouts on the night:<br />
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<span class="s1">2nd: Seager, 80-mph curve, swinging </span></div>
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<span class="s1">3rd: Martin, 88-mph change, looking</span></div>
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<span class="s1">4th: Smith, 81-mph curve, looking</span></div>
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<span class="s1">4th: Cano, 80-mph curve, swinging</span></div>
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<span class="s1">6th: Martin 78-mph curve, swinging</span></div>
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<span class="s1">6th: Cruz, Down 3-1 two great 95 mph 2-seamers, both swinging</span></div>
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Here's some highlights of Taillon's night courtesy of MLB.com<br />
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<iframe frameborder="0" height="224" src="https://m.mlb.com/shared/video/embed/embed.html?content_id=875115583&topic_id=26271672&width=400&height=224&property=mlb" width="400">Your browser does not support iframes.</iframe>
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If the video fails to load, <a href="http://m.mlb.com/video/topic/26271672/v875115583/?query=jameson%2Btaillon" target="_blank">here is a link</a>.<br />
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Jameson Taillon is about to make his fifth career start tonight against Wade Miley and the Seattle Mariners. Taillon was solid his debut and excellent in his second start both against the offensively-challenged New York Mets. That was followed by the Cubs welcoming the big righthander to Wrigley in his national television debut with three home runs in four innings and his first career loss. Last Friday the Pirates stalked Taillon to a four-run second inning lead, but he was unable to record an out in the fifth and left the game with his second consecutive 4IP, 8H, 4R stat line.<br />
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In watching Taillon's first starts I've been paying attention to his efficiency and his swings-and-misses. Taillon is known for his excellent command and he's carried that to the majors. After walking two of the first 13 batters he faced in his career, he's only walked three of the next 78, 3.8% vs a MLB average of 7.8%.<br />
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What he hasn't generated is a lot of swings-and-misses or strikeouts. Here are the numbers in his first 4 starts (innings pitched/pitches/swings-and-misses/strikeouts):<br />
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6/8 6.0-91-5-3<br />
6/14 8.0-91-6-5<br />
6/19 4.0-85-5-5<br />
6/24 4.0-70-4-2 (pitched to 3 batters in the 5th)<br />
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In his second start, Taillon showed really good sinking arm-side run on his two-seamer and excellent command of his curveball. In going eight innings he never threw more than 15 pitches in an inning. It didn't carry over to his start in Wrigley. He threw 33 pitches in the first, 18 in the second and 23 in the third. After not reaching 100 pitches in any of his minor league starts this year, he was not brought out for the fifth even after an efficient 1-2-3, 2 strikeout, 11-pitch fourth.<br />
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His last effort was Taillon's worst. His fastball was flat and often up in the zone and he didn't command his curveball. The Dodgers had no trouble barreling him up, particularly early in counts, as four of their eight hits were on the first pitch and two more came on 1-0 counts.<br />
<br />
I went back and took a quick look at Gerrit Cole's first four starts in 2013 for a comparison (innings/pitches/swing-and-misses/strikeouts):<br />
<br />
6/11 6.1-81-8-2<br />
6/16 5.2-80-4-1<br />
6/21 6.1-88-10-5<br />
6/28 6.0-94-6-3<br />
<br />
Not all that dissimilar. The Pirates could really use a win tonight. We'll see what Jameson Taillon brings to the table.<br />
<br />
<br />David Toddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09380511200796084349noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2191763794537973946.post-48021745059687816612016-03-31T06:48:00.002-07:002016-07-15T06:40:58.190-07:00Starling Marte, Defense and the Limitations of WAR<div class="p1">
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh7LNg9Fai_JbSnh0ZjaRYn3pCUgB4hbjk8hShUFGmYILZ9PfJb8eiNGPwm0a_i3pCrByl2YaaykkMmyV8V-pfN_1BcqEXVcHUShGX_sXrj5s9CK3nBHvRWmZJPj1ek4fgDDpS82Sz2OVic/s1600/Marte+Catch.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="406" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh7LNg9Fai_JbSnh0ZjaRYn3pCUgB4hbjk8hShUFGmYILZ9PfJb8eiNGPwm0a_i3pCrByl2YaaykkMmyV8V-pfN_1BcqEXVcHUShGX_sXrj5s9CK3nBHvRWmZJPj1ek4fgDDpS82Sz2OVic/s640/Marte+Catch.jpeg" width="640" /></a></div>
<span class="s1"><br /></span>
<span class="s1">As we get ready for the opening of the 2016 baseball season, I thought I'd share some thoughts on advance metrics and what the sabermetric community knows and what it is still trying to figure out through the lens of Starling Marte’s statistics. This isn’t exactly breaking new ground, but I still think Marte’s numbers specifically are worth looking at.</span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1">For years the Holy Grail of sabermetrics has been to find a singular number that could neatly summarize a player’s season and provide context for that season versus other seasons from the same player, different players and different eras. The number is designed to take into account every aspect of a player's performance--offense, defense/fielding and base running. The term commonly used for this is WAR or Wins Above Replacement.</span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1">As <span class="s2"><a href="http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2014/1/10/5291950/basic-sabermetrics-wins-above-replacement-war-fwar-bwar-warp" target="_blank">this excellent primer on WAR states</a></span>, </span></div>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span class="s1">Talking effectively about WAR requires considerable time and effort, given how much work goes into computing this number, how many factors / metrics it takes into account, and the fact that there are several permutations of it available to the public. </span></blockquote>
<div class="p1">
Please keep that in mind as we gloss over many of the details. Currently there are three main forms of WAR, all of which calculate the metric differently. The thing is, when we talk about the value of position players, we probably know 95% of what we will ever be able to ascertain from a batter’s contribution in the batter’s box. There are various offensive numbers such as Weighted Runs Created (wRC), On-base Plus Slugging Plus (OPS+) and True Average (TAv) which all do a good job of telling us a player’s offensive contribution in a single statistic by analyzing the counting and rate stats and using a formula to distill them down to a single number.</div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1">The problem is when it comes to defense (and a lesser degree base running), it’s hard to tell exactly what we know and how accurate the data is. We can see this clearly when taking a look at Marte’s numbers during his three full season in the majors. The table below compares fWAR, the version supplied by Fangraphs, bWAR, the version found on Baseball-Reference and WARP, the version provided by Baseball Prospectus.</span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"><br /></span></div>
<table border="2" bordercolor="#0033FF" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="3" style="background-color: color: white; padding-bottom: 4px; padding-top: 5px;">
<tbody>
<tr>
<th>Starling Marte</th>
<th> fWAR </th>
<th>bWAR</th>
<th>WARP</th>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2013</td>
<td> 4.8</td>
<td> 5.4</td>
<td> 2.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2014</td>
<td> 4.4</td>
<td> 5.1</td>
<td> 3.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2015</td>
<td> 3.6</td>
<td> 5.4</td>
<td> 2.5</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="p1">
<br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1">Almost the entire difference in these three numbers each year comes from the different defensive components used by the three methods. bWAR, which clearly views Marte most-favorably in all three seasons, shows <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2015-specialpos_lf-fielding.shtml"><span class="s2">Marte leading all left fielders by a large margin in defensive runs saved in 2015</span></a>, leading a to strong positive defensive contribution to his overall bWAR figure. <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=lf&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=500&type=1&season=2015&month=0&season1=2015&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0"><span class="s2">fWAR looks at Marte’s 2015 defensive season favorably</span></a>, but has a handful of players ranked ahead of him. WARP calculates Marte as having <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=56034"><span class="s2">a negative Fielding Runs Above Average (FRAA) in 2015 (and in his other two seasons as well.)</span></a>. The reason for these discrepancies is they each use different methods to come up with their defensive valuations. They are all evaluating the same player, looking at the same plays, but coming up with surprisingly disparate results.</span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1">There are complex calculations that go into these numbers and this is probably an oversimplification even as clear as the differences are, but it illustrates how the different methods of evaluating defense can come up with dramatically different views on a player. And although it doesn't impact the analysis of Marte, there is a valid argument that the massive increase in the use of defensive shifting has actually made defensive metrics less reliable over the last five years. Hopefully the new data being recorded by Statcast and Trackman, which tracks exact player positioning and movement, will allow us to better analyze a player’s defensive capabilities going forward.</span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1">And there there is the question of the “eye test” and whether that is a reliable way to evaluate a player. The anecdote of watching a player play an entire season and knowing that if a .270 hitter gets one more hit every to weeks he becomes a .300 hitter is instructive. Could you tell the difference? Of course the answer for virtually all of us, unless you are recording the information, is no.</span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1">Having said that I believe evaluating a player’s defensive skill set is a bit different. I think that if you watch a player play 150 games in a season you will have a very good understanding of his defensive strengths and weakness. But translating that understanding into useful data and comparing it to players playing different positions is a whole different problem. Having watched Starling Marte throughout his career I can give you the scouting report: He has great range in left field. He tracks balls well but doesn’t catch everything he gets to. He occasionally misses the routine play (St. Louis Sept 2014 anyone?), but he has good instincts and a very strong accurate arm. #DontRunOnMarte. But can I give you a solid comparison between Marte and Alex Gordon or Christian Yelich? No. I do see Marte 150 times a year, but I only see the others maybe 10-15 times. That might be enough to provide a basic scouting report, but it isn’t enough of a sample size to have a deep understanding of the others’ strengths and weaknesses and thus I can’t come up with a valid quantitative comparison between the players. </span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1">Back to WAR. In today’s world 1 WAR is valued at between $7-9 million. How do we put any kind of accurate value on Starling Marte’s worth when one method calculates his 2015 season at 2.5 WAR, one has him at 3.6 and the third has him at 5.4? Using $8M/WAR the range of value is $20-$43 million. Not very precise.</span></div>
<div class="p2">
<br />
<span class="s1"></span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1">So remember as we go through the season analyzing players and situations, the data and on-going study of that data has revealed so much that has changed how we think about the game. Just looking at the numbers may tell us virtually everything about a player’s offensive performance. But we’ve got a ways to go to figure out the rest. And be careful when someone brings up WAR. It's a useful tool, but it's still pretty blunt.</span><br />
<span class="s1"><br /></span>
<span class="s1"><br /></span></div>
David Toddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09380511200796084349noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2191763794537973946.post-12608476349168934292016-03-22T11:16:00.000-07:002016-07-15T06:41:14.014-07:00Clint Hurdle, Sabermetrician<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiW9yn_QTClOIn-NKzDx7tKVNOMSGoGXeGreIZm1IWijyeatuSTmoxp6mcMg62pE3EQD67-dhysJWjDyGGJqG03Jm5FAOF7m7OiKMVM1GTyd4jtiVAqDn8p8USFFOPXu5H14m31Me8mIDIr/s1600/hurdle1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="426" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiW9yn_QTClOIn-NKzDx7tKVNOMSGoGXeGreIZm1IWijyeatuSTmoxp6mcMg62pE3EQD67-dhysJWjDyGGJqG03Jm5FAOF7m7OiKMVM1GTyd4jtiVAqDn8p8USFFOPXu5H14m31Me8mIDIr/s640/hurdle1.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
Back in December, on the day the Pirates announced the signing of John Jaso, I tweeted out a Pirates batting order that I thought would be optimal vs. right handed pitchers.<br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en">
<div dir="ltr" lang="en">
My <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Pirates?src=hash">#Pirates</a> (needs more thought) lineup vs RHP<br />
1) Jaso<br />
2) Cutch<br />
3) Marte<br />
4) Kang<br />
5) Polanco<br />
6) Cervelli<br />
7) Harrison<br />
8) Mercer<br />
I like it.</div>
— David Todd (@DTonPirates) <a href="https://twitter.com/DTonPirates/status/679796325962137600">December 23, 2015</a></blockquote>
Now I figured this was something even the analytically-driven Pirates would never adopt. Jaso is not the prototypical speedy leadoff hitter, but his .361 career OBP and his excellent baserunning skills make him an ideal candidate to hit at the top of the order. It is also the lineup spot he has been penciled into most frequently when playing for analytically-astute teams like the Rays and the A's. But the Pirates had Josh Harrison and Gregory Polanco both hit at the top of the order last year and both were back this year. Habit is a strong force to overcome. Plugging McCutchen in the 2-hole was something that seemed even less likely than batting Jaso leadoff. McCutchen hadn't hit anywhere but third or fourth since 2011, but all of a sudden <a href="http://m.mlb.com/news/article/167898892/mccutchen-moves-to-second-in-pirates-order" target="_blank">Cutch batting second has been the feature story out of Bradenton</a> with Opening Day <a href="http://triblive.com/sports/pirates/10172287-74/mccutchen-lineup-hurdle" target="_blank">less than two weeks away</a>.<br />
<br />
It's been argued for years now that teams should bat their best hitter in the 2-hole, but very few teams have actually done it. <a href="http://www.cincinnati.com/story/redsblog/2015/04/03/brandon-phillips-hitting-7th-joey-votto-2nd-for-reds/25263979/" target="_blank">The Reds did it last year with Joey Votto.</a> We've seen the Angels do it with Mike Trout. Clint summed up why he had never done it when he presented the idea to McCutchen, "I told Andrew the challenge for me is for 47 years, the baddest dude hits third. If got to rearrange my thinking on it and what's best for our team. How do we maximize our run production?" Now it looks like the Pirates will follow the Reds lead. We can debate <a href="http://tangotiger.com/index.php/site/category/batting-order" target="_blank">the impact of lineup optimization</a> and whether it's worth all the time we spend discussing it, but for a team like the Pirates that has appeared in three straight wild card games, The Clint Hurdle Invitational as Joe Sheehan likes to call it, <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/how-significant-is-batting-order/" target="_blank">every extra run can make a difference</a>.<br />
<br />
All of which reminded me of a story, one of the very first times I interacted with Hurdle.<br />
<br />
Coming off a 105-loss season the Pirates introduced Clint as their new manager in November 2010. Clint was not a favorite of the sabermetric community and his hiring certainly raised some eyebrows and "same old Pirates" reactions. Of course none of this bothered Hurdle. Before the season he was very visible promoting the organization and talking frequently about "rebranding a city with its baseball team," laying out his plan to once again make the Pirates a respected, winning franchise. "I'm proud to be a Pirate," he had boomed at his introductory presser, a phrase not often uttered during the team's 18-consecutive losing seasons.<br />
<br />
That season, my second back in Pittsburgh, I was hired to be the Pirates pre- and post-game host, so I had some interaction with Clint early on. Listening to him talk about baseball in those first weeks, he would often answer a question about why he pursued this or that particular in-game strategy ending it with something like, "there is no Book. If there was a Book, we would all just go to the appropriate page and have all the answers." Clint said this frequently enough that I realized he didn't know there actually was "a Book," and ironically, it was called <a href="http://www.amazon.com/The-Book-Playing-Percentages-Baseball/dp/1494260174" target="_blank">The Book: Playing the Percentages in Baseball</a>, written by three well-respected baseball statisticians in 2007. It covered topics such as batter-pitcher matchups, platooning, sacrifice bunts, intentional walks, lineup optimization and a plethora of other situations and strategies that are regularly encountered in the game. The authors approached all these topics by analyzing reams of historical data and then presenting the optimal decisions for each situation based on that analysis. The underlying premise being that by optimizing process and decision making a manager/team will give itself a better chance of "winning" each decision and therefore winning more games.<br />
<br />
One Sunday morning in May of that first season I brought my copy of The Book to the media's pregame meeting with Clint in his office. After the briefing, when everyone had cleared out, I approached Clint who was sitting behind his desk. For those who don't know him, here is what Pirates GM Neal Huntington said when he introduced Clint as manager, "He does have a great personality, he's got a big presence and he's very charismatic, which allows him to be a tremendous leader." If anything Neal undersold that aspect of him.<br />
<br />
That Sunday morning Clint probably knew my name, but not much more. I walked over and re-introduced myself. He stood up and extended his hand. Clint is a big man. If his goal was ever to intimidate, just standing up would be a good start. So there I was about to hand a book about baseball to a man who had spent his entire life in the sport. More than that, I had printed out a couple of pages from The Book which discussed run expectancy and why sacrifice bunts were generally a bad idea and, by inference, why Clint using the sac bunt so much was a bad idea. I mean I'd been involved in the game as a broadcaster for a couple weeks now. Why shouldn't I tell the manager what I thought?<br />
<br />
Clint had every right to tell me exactly where to stick my book and kick me out of his office. He did the opposite. He couldn't have been more gracious. He admitted he was unaware The Book existed. (How many would do even that?) And after I briefly described its contents he engaged me for five minutes, even discussing the run expectancy printouts and the theory behind it. Having overstayed my time, with him having a game to prepare for, I turned to walk out. Clint thanked me and said he looked forward to reading and discussing The Book.<br />
<br />
Fast-forward to spring training 2016. Under the stewardship of Neal and Clint the Pirates are one of baseball's model-franchises. They are viewed as being on the cutting-edge of data analysis and are at the forefront of implementing change in the game, which is wonderfully-profiled by Travis Sawchick <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Big-Data-Baseball-Miracles-20-Year/dp/1250063507" target="_blank">in his fantastic book Big Data Baseball</a>. Each season the Pirates have tried to find advantages from pitching inside, to defensive shifting to player health management where they can find an edge on the competition.<br />
<br />
This spring the Pirates have experimented with a more aggressive running game. Is that something that can be exploited now that the running game has been de-emphasized in today's lower run environment? The data have shown they need to have their outfielders playing shallower because fly balls from their primarily ground ball pitching staff have a shallower launch angle and too many balls were falling in for hits. And now they are looking to optimize their batting order.<br />
<br />
The guy in charge of implementing these and all the other changes is a very different manager than the one the Pirates hired back in 2010. One that has committed himself to learning and adapting to changes in the game and then communicating that information to his coaches and players to get an organizational buy-in. The results have been staggering to many who think small-market teams can no longer compete. The Pirates have won 94, 88 and 98 games the past three seasons, one of only three teams to make the playoffs all three years. The guy in charge is still Clint Hurdle. But now it's Clint Hurdle, sabermetrician.<br />
<br />David Toddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09380511200796084349noreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2191763794537973946.post-78313161245146653752016-03-02T04:34:00.000-08:002016-03-02T05:21:08.179-08:00Gerrit Cole and a Brutal, Misfocused 72-Hour News Cycle for the PiratesI think now everybody has taken their shot at the Pirates.<br />
<br />
I'm sure <a href="http://triblive.com/sports/pirates/10049975-74/cole-salary-league" target="_blank">you've seen the story</a>. Late Saturday night it was reported the team had offered Gerrit Cole a paycut after a 2015 season where he finished fourth in the National League Cy Young Award voting. Less than 16 hours later the beat writer who broke the original story wrote another about how <a href="http://triblive.com/sports/pirates/10043775-74/cole-huntington-pirates" target="_blank">Pirates General Manager Neal Huntington admitted the Pirates made a mistake</a>:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: "open_sansregular"; font-size: 15px; line-height: 21.4286px;">“We made a mistake in the process,” Huntington said. “We've owned that. We'll evolve. Our hope is that Gerrit is ready to move forward and put this behind him.”</span></blockquote>
Under baseball's rules, Gerrit Cole is an indentured servant, like every other player, until he accrues three years of service time. During those three years, as long as a MLB team offers a player at least the league minimum salary of $507,000, the player has no recourse. The Pirates made Cole and his agent Scott Boras a contract offer of $538,000. It turns out that number happened to be $3,000 less than the $541,000 Cole earned last year. Depending how you want to slice it Cole actually got a raise. His 2015 salary was $531,000 and he also received a $10,000 bonus for making the All-Star team. Assuming a similar bonus was in effect with the Pirates offer this season, there isn't much of story here. In any business, bonuses are different than base salaries. Raises come off the base salary. Cole got a raise, small as it is, from $531K to $538K. But he wasn't guaranteed to make more money than he did last year. And that set off the alarm bells for Scott Boras and got all of baseball focused on the Pirates in the lull before spring training games commenced.<br />
<br />
Boras saw blood in the water and wasn't going to pass up the opportunity to turn the story into a national feeding-frenzy with the Pirates as the chum. Not surprisingly, he spoke up,<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<div class="Tab-body-text TAB" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: open_sansregular; font-size: 15px; line-height: 21.4286px;">
“When you have a system that doesn't account for special performances by a player, it doesn't reward those achievements,” Boras said.</div>
</blockquote>
A bit more surprising was the fact that Gerrit Cole commented as well,<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: "open_sansregular"; font-size: 15px; line-height: 21.4286px;">“I understand the business of this game, but it is hard to accept that a year of performance success does not warrant an increase in pay,” Cole told the Tribune-Review.</span></blockquote>
I have no problem with Cole voicing his opinion. He is the new Pirates player rep having taken over for Neil Walker. Maybe both he and Boras thought this was a good way to make an impression on his teammates and the Players' Union about being a vocal contributor in his new role. Fine.<br />
<br />
The issue I do have a problem with is Cole's revelation the Pirates actually "threatened" to cut his pay back to the minimum of $507K if he didn't sign the deal that was offered. Players actually have no obligation to sign the actual contract and more than one player has played out the season without signing, viewing that as their only available form of protest. But I don't even know where to go with the thought the Pirates actually played the real paycut-card. It's hard to believe anyone with any authority in the organization would suggest that to either Boras or Cole. If there is a story, this is it and it should be addressed.<br />
<br />
But it's worth pointing out again, that the Pirates immediately admitted to making a mistake. The clerical process of submitting Cole's contract to his agent is about five pay-grades below Neal Huntington's duties. The team obviously wasn't factoring in bonuses to formulaic, rubber-stamped pay increases. Someone messed up and the Pirates are getting bombarded with bad PR. <a href="http://espn.go.com/blog/buster-olney/insider/post?id=12378" target="_blank">Buster Olney took his shot</a> at the Bucs and their "penny-foolish" ways. <a href="http://sportsworld.nbcsports.com/ian-desmond-ryan-howard-gerrit-cole-contract/" target="_blank">Joe Posnanski dropped Cole's tale of woe into a larger story</a> of today's player economics and <a href="http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/68551/royals-do-the-right-thing-sign-salvador-perez-to-extension" target="_blank">my friend Dave Schoenfield, who I think missed the mark</a>, compared the Cole situation to the Royals extension of catcher Salvador Perez.<br />
<br />
I am the last to defend the Pirates and Bob Nutting's frugal ways. I have spent the last four months on my show on ESPN Pittsburgh (and the three years prior) ripping the team for their limited, self-imposed budget and a starting rotation that is to include Jeff Locke and more-shockingly, free agent Ryan Vogelsong to open the season. Tyler Glasnow, Jameson Taillon, Josh Bell, Elias Diaz and Alen Hanson and their corresponding minimum salaries of $507K are all expected to matriculate to the majors over the next 12-18 months. In addition, more than $25+ million in salaries will be coming off the books next year with Mark Melancon ($9.65M), Michael Morse (~$5M), Neftali Feliz ($3.9M), Francisco Cervelli ($3.5M), Juan Nicasio ($3M) and Sean Rodriguez ($2.5M) all becoming free agents and likely to leave. This season seemed the perfect year to spend a bit more to supplement one of the best rosters in baseball with more starting pitching depth as payroll is likely to fall next year. The Pirates didn't do that. And if they miss the playoffs while waiting for Glasnow & Taillon to develop, and more-pointedly get past the Super-2 window, there should be hell to pay. But after winning 94, 88 and 98 games the last three years under Nutting's Draconian financial policies, Neal Huntington deserves the benefit of the doubt. We'll see.<br />
<br />
But that's the real story. That the Pirates didn't supplement a roster of 22-23 players that is as good as any in the game, not that the Pirates made a mistake over $3K with Cole. Yesterday the Cardinals renewed pitcher <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wachami01.shtml" target="_blank">Michael Wacha, a close comp to Cole</a> in both service-time and performance, at $539K. Not a word was heard. The Mets renewed Noah Syndergaard at $531,875. Not a mention. The Pirates made a small mistake and Scott Boras pounced, undoubtedly with larger motives at work. With rosters mostly finalized and spring training games not yet underway, everyone was looking for any story to fill the news cycle. They got one. One that focused on a frugal, cheap if you prefer, and foolish decision by the Pirates. Unfortunately the media focused on the wrong Pirates financial story.<br />
<br />
Not that they did it on purpose, but I wonder if the Pirates actually prefer it that way?<br />
<br />
<br />David Toddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09380511200796084349noreply@blogger.com8tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2191763794537973946.post-2624908210055697992016-02-23T11:36:00.000-08:002016-02-23T11:37:05.491-08:00Part II of My Conversation with Pirates Pitching Coach Ray Searage<div>
Earlier this month I had an extended conversation with Pirates pitching coach Ray Searage and I was finally able to transcribe it over the weekend. Here is Part II. You can listen to the entire conversation <a href="http://www.espnpgh.com/media/play/26699559/" target="_blank">here</a>. (Edited for clarity.)</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
Q: What are the latest reports on Jameson Taillon?<br />
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<br /></div>
<div>
Ray: Everything is going as planned...There are no restrictions on him. We just have to let him go about his business, keep an eye on him and let him get his work in and let him go from there.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div>
Q: I know you don't want to put expectations in fans' minds or in the players' minds. They are going to have to go out at AAA and do the work and prove that they can perform at that level before coming to the major leagues. But, is there a timetable when we can realistically expect to see Jameson or Tyler Glasnow in Pittsburgh in May, June, July?</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Ray: I wish I had a crystal ball to answer that question for you. They are going to dictate when they are ready to come up to the major leagues. The ball is in their hands, so to speak, no pun intended. They are the ones that are going to tell us, "Hey this guy is ready for the major leagues," and we'll go from there. We've got to make sure there are some areas that are taken care of. I know they work hard, they are good kids, they are very disciplined in what they do. We'll let what they do during the season and in spring training dictate what might happen after that. </div>
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<div>
Q: Ray, what attracted the organization to Ryan Vogelsong and what are you expecting from him this year?</div>
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Ray: He's a guy with experience. He's a guy who's been to the World Series. He's had many good years up in the major leagues finding himself out. Last year was just an off year for him. He wants to come back to Pittsburgh and try to put out some fires that he left here. He's got some things to prove. He says Ray, "I've got some more in the tank." And I said, "You know what Ryan, I know you do." So we're looking forward [to it].<br />
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You know, I looked at video with all these guys we've gotten. It's not the same thing, it does have value, but it's not the same thing as putting an eyeball on them and watching them and watching the ball come out of their hand and seeing their delivery. It's something that's really exciting for me right now because we have some guys that are going to be really interesting to watch and see how they perform in spring training.<br />
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Q: Did you get to see Jon Niese throw when he came over to the minicamp in January?<br />
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Ray: At that point in time we were only doing long toss or their throwing program, but we had a nice conversation....He's raring to go....I'm really happy to see him get back into his old form because every time he pitched against us he was a tough son-of-a-gun out there and so we are looking for him to be that guy for us.<br />
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Q: Ray, I know you know these numbers, but over the last 4-5 seasons the average team has needed about 10 starters and needed roughly 30-35 starts typically from starters who aren't in the top 5. We know the Pirates looking to 2017, '18, '19 have a nice pipeline of young starting pitchers who, if they develop as hoped, can certainly fill those roles. But there is a level of concern right now to start the season that if someone were to get injured, the team doesn't have starting pitching depth. Is it Juan Nicasio, is it someone else, where would you look for your 6th, 7th, 8th guys to start the season?<br />
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Ray: Like you said, the 6th, 7th, 8th guys, you need guys with starting ability. We've got Nicasio, (Kyle) Lobstein, (Wilfredo) Boscon and possibly Glasnow or Taillon to fill a void in for a week or two. You're right every team needs 10-12 starters during the course of the year due to injuries or fatigue or other things. We've got to make sure we have depth and Neal has done a great job of giving us depth. With those guys who are like swingmen, they are going to foot the bill perfectly. And hopefully if that situation does occur at some point in time later on in the season, Glasnow and Taillon can foot that bill, too. You never have enough pitching, but I think we are in a good spot right now, but we're always looking to better ourselves.<br />
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Q: You ran into a bad string of injuries in terms of the number with Kingham, Cumpton and Taillon all missing at least a year after Tommy John surgery. I know you, as an organization, spend a lot of time looking at injuries. Is their anything that you have learned or is this still the big unsolved, Tommy John surgery?<br />
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Ray: Yes, that's a big X factor. There are so many different things involved in that. It stirs my mind, it's not in my pay grade. These things are going to happen over the course of the year and you try to help these guys prevent or minimize the injuries. Our strength and conditioning staff has done a tremendous job over the years and we will continue to do that. Injuries are a part of the game and they will happen and we just have to be prepared when they do happen. All the new information that we are getting will help us further minimize it, but not completely negate it.<br />
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Q: Neftali Feliz is a guy Clint had some experience with down in Texas. What was the attraction and what role do you see him playing with the Pirates?<br />
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Ray: Number one we want to make sure he's healthy and gets his work in. Then, he'll dictate what spot he's going to be used in. The whole situation with Feliz is, I think, being hurt and then coming back a little bit too soon and thinking that you still can do what you did before without being 100% healed. You end up forcing stuff and doing things you normally wouldn't do as opposed to letting your instincts and talent take care of it. He's learned from those experiences and he's healthy as far as I know right now. We'll see how it goes. It looks real good and it looks real positive (laughs) and I'm looking forward to seeing some gas come out of that hand.<br />
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Q: Speaking of gas, Ray I know your proud of all your guys and you love all your guys, but there must be a special spot for Arquimedes Caminero. You must be proud of the step forward he took last year.<br />
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Ray: Big time. He listened. He wasn't a robot, he listened. There were some times we had disagreements, him, myself, the catchers--what to throw and where to throw it. But that's normal, that's good, I want these guys to think. I don't want these guys to be, "Ok, follow Ray, here we go, yo, he, ho" (laughing). No, I don't want that. I want input from them so I can help them and be a better coach for them. With him, the way he performed last year, we got him back on track, and I'm talking about everybody involved, we got him back on track, and then he was even able to go outside that and improve on some things. There were some old teachings from previous organizations that we were able to get past and hopefully we're on the right track and able to keep going.</div>
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David Toddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09380511200796084349noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2191763794537973946.post-84117628546631711252016-02-22T09:09:00.000-08:002016-02-23T10:50:43.870-08:00Part I of My Conversation with Pirates Pitching Coach Ray Searage: His Future, Organizational Pitching Philosophy & Use of Advanced DataEarlier this month I had an extended conversation with Pirates pitching coach Ray Searage and I was finally able to transcribe it over the weekend. Here is Part I. You can listen to the entire conversation <a href="http://www.espnpgh.com/media/play/26699559/" target="_blank">here</a>. (Edited for clarity.)<br />
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Q: When a team is successful, other organizations often look to hire their personnel. Jim Benedict is just one who left this offseason.What does the future hold for Ray Searage, being in the last year of your contract?<br />
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Ray: I want to retire as a Pirate. In the past Mr. Nutting, Mr. Coonelly, Neal Huntington, they've always taken care of me. I'll let those things work themselves out. My job is to try to bring and to work at bringing a World Series team to the Pittsburgh people and fans and organization.<br />
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I just want people to know the pitchers, the players are not there for me, I'm there for them. My heart and my blood is with the Pirates and I would just like to finish my career with them.<br />
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Q: Is there an overarching organizational philosophy and approach toward pitching?<br />
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Ray: Definitely. We definitely try to make the pitcher, no matter what level he is at, be the best that he can be by staying within himself. Now yes there are some things that are outside the box that we might have to make adjustments with and you take that individually, but collectively and being cohesive throughout the organization there are certain things that we have parameters on, especially in the minor leagues, in order to develop to become a professional ballplayer at the major league level.<br />
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There are so many things that are involved and there are so many different niches that each player has, and that's what we have to find out as coaches. And our organizational [goal] is to try to make the pitcher the best he possibly can be by being and staying within himself and not losing himself. When I pitched, I had so many pitching coaches try to help me, but it really hurt me because I ended up losing my own identity. We don't want these kids to lose their identity. Obviously they've got good stuff or they wouldn't have been signed. Now we've got to refine that stuff from the minor leagues and even into the big leagues. You still have to continue to teach in the big leagues. If you assume that all these guys know everything, what they have to do and stuff...no, you have to be there and be like a checklist and that filters all the way down into the minor leagues. That's why are pitching coaches are so good at what they do. They stay within themselves, but help the pitchers stay within themselves also. And on the same page, they also help them develop to become a pro, be a man, be a Pittsburgh Pirate.<br />
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Q: Is first and foremost and always will be, fastball command? It's number one and you won't move until you have that sorted out?<br />
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Ray: Yes, you have to because everything is going to come off that fastball command. If you can't throw your fastball for strikes and you can throw your offspeed for strikes you aren't really a fastball pitcher. We want to make sure these guys have the fastball command and all the other pitches excel off of that. Sometimes it takes longer than others. Everybody has a different kind of learning skill. We've got to make sure we try to make them improve on that from year-to-year, from game-to-game, from pen-to-pen. It's a very long process and sometimes the guys that are really good and catch it real quick are the guys that just shoot right through the minor leagues and help us here at the big league level.<br />
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Q: How much time do you spend looking at analytical data these days?<br />
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Ray: In the beginning, I'll tell you Dave, I bucked it. I didn't really like it, because this was something different and I tended to back off and say no, no, no. As we continued to go on through the years here, now I embrace it. Now it is really good stuff, especially the consistency of where the pitches come out of the hand. You can tell the different spots, where the fastball is, where the curveball is, where the change-up is. One of the guys that was the most consistent was A.J. Burnett. He would have an area where he dropped his fastball, his curveball and his change-up all came out the same area. And you looked at another guy, I'm just going to call him Joe Smith right now, and there would be three different areas with the fastball, the change-up and the breaking pitch. We found out the more consistent you could get to that one realize point, with the Trackman, and find these things out, the less time the hitter has to figure out what pitch is coming. And then it all comes down to execution, and I don't want to make that sound trivial, but it comes down to execution of your pitch. If you have a consistent release point on those three pitches it gives you an added advantage.<br />
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Q: Do you look at and value things like spin rate, perceived velocity, soft contact, which everyone is trying to achieve, as well?<br />
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Ray: Yes, yes. There could be a grip or a minor little tweak in the delivery or the arm slot that could help improve those things. But, we don't try to go hunt that down, it just happens to come out and shock us and say, hey, this is what it is. What we'll try to do is make it a little bit better, but not lose the guy himself. There is a fine line you have to walk, where you work with the improvement, but you also have to know the individual to and whether they are able to do it. More times than not you are going to be successful with it, but your approach has to be the right way or it's not going to work out.David Toddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09380511200796084349noreply@blogger.com3