Saturday, August 13, 2016

Pirates Struggling with Kang in LIneup & Some Weekend Listening

A nice win Friday night in Los Angeles as the Pirates started a six-game west coast road trip against the two NL West leaders. Two hits and a great defensive play by Andrew McCutchen once again raise hopes that he has figured out how to actually be, you know, Andrew McCutchen. Obviously that would go a long way to ensuring the Bucs make the playoffs for a fourth consecutive season.
Jung Ho Kang sat last night and has now started only 13 of the 24 games since the All-Star break and only two since August 4. We can all speculate as to the impact of the events of June 17 and the ensuing sexual assault allegations on Kang's performance, but it appears Kang has lost his job as the Pirates starting third baseman. Coincidence, correlation or causation, who knows exactly, but the Pirates are 10-1 in games NOT started by Jung Ho since the ASB and 2-11 in games he has started. Do with that what you will. If I'm Clint Hurdle, Kang goes the way of Gregory Polanco down the stretch in 2014 and only gets 1-2 starts a week.
I had some great guests on the show this week that I thought I'd link to if anyone would like to listen to the podcasts. On Monday I spoke with Pirates beat writer Travis Sawchik about his interview with GM Neal Huntington, thoughts on the deadline and the mood in the Pirates clubhouse. On Tuesday I spoke with Mike Petriello of MLB.com. Mike and I talked about the evolution of technology in MLB stadiums and specifically the data that is gradually becoming widely available, Pitch Fx, exit velocity, launch angles, spin rates, route efficiency and throw velocity among other things. We talked about how he analyzes the data, how major league teams and specific players are parsing and using the data and what is on the horizon in the months and years ahead.
On Wednesday and Thursday Joe Sheehan and Jonah Keri joined me. Joe is a weekly guest (usually Tuesdays) and this week we discussed ARod and the impact of PEDs. Joe (and Keith Law) is generally of the believe that there is no evidence that PEDs make baseball players better and, if I may paraphrase as best I can, believes the Steroid Era of the late '90s, early '00s is mislabeled. We followed that with a wide-ranging talk about the races going on right now. Jonah joined me Thursday. We hit on some of the same topics. Jonah and I share the view that PEDs did have an impact on the game and just because it isn't easily quantifiable, that doesn't mean it didn't exist. I also asked him whether he was outraged by the Pirates' moves at the deadline (Joe, like Charlie, generally thinks the Liriano trade was, for lack of a better term, a disgrace and something, with today's revenue sharing setup, that should never happen). We finished up with a look at the race in the NL West and for the NL wild card.
I also had my weekly Pirates discussion with Bob Smizik (Part 1 and Part 2) on Thursday. Bob's one of my favorite guests and, if you have a listen to this, I think you'll be more than convinced that Bob is right on top of what is going on with the Bucs.

Wednesday, August 3, 2016

A Smorgasbord Heading into, um, Locke & Vogelsong

Some quick-hitters this morning with the trade deadline behind us. Warning, some of these thoughts/points may actually take a positive tone (some, not all, I promise), so if you are an unswayable member of the attack mob, please don't be distracted from your original targets. In many cases I am just a messenger.
1.) Don't look now, but with last night's win over the Braves and losses by the Marlins and Cards, the Pirates are one game back in the loss column for the second wild card spot. But with so many off days of late, the Pirates have played two fewer games than the Mets and Cards and three fewer than the Marlins, so there is still plenty of work to be done.
Trade Deadline:
2.) After some very strong criticism of the Pirates-Toronto trade, including Charlie's scathing rebuke, some well-known analysts have come out with more positive views of the deal. Keith Law (sub required) felt that both sides got some value out of the deal and specifically addressed the comparisons made to the Arizona-Atlanta deal made last season:
Both players (Reese McGuire and Harold Ramirez) have some value, but this isn't like Arizona giving up Tuoki Toussant, and they had been passed by better players in a strong Pirates system.
He concludes that it is a reasonable deal for both teams suggesting that if the Pirates can help Drew Hutchison rediscover the hard slider that he flashed at the end of 2014 the Pirates will have a bargain on their hands. Certainly a big if.
3.) My biggest issue relating to the analysis of the deal is the constant reference to McGuire and Ramirez as top 10 prospects. They were both top 10 prospects coming into the season. They were also both top 100 prospects in the game at one point in time. But, the 2016 minor league season is almost over, so that is a massive amount of data that will be poured over to re-evaluate where players stand. McGuire and Ramirez have not done anything this year to improve their prospect status. As Dave Cameron noted after the deadline over at Fangraphs:
The Pirates agreed to give both up because they just weren't really hitting this season; both in Double-A, McGuire had a 94 wRC+ and Ramirez had a 112 wRC+ based on a .363 BABip, but neither was showing any semblance of power.
Recognizing that process is as much the issue as talent here, I recognize this doesn't have to be the defining aspect of the deal, but it's worth noting.
Obviously how the Pirates allocate the $20+ million saved at the deadline and with Liriano off the books next year will be a huge component of how this deal is viewed.
4.) I had Joe Sheehan on my show yesterday to talk extensively about the trade deadline. In part 1 we reviewed the Pirates four deals and his take was similar to Charlie's, though maybe not as strong, in regard to the Liriano trade. We did actually discuss the other three as well. In part 2 we took a quick look at some of the other deals that went down. I really enjoyed this.
5.) Various analysts ranked all the prospects traded at the deadline. Again over at Fangraphs, Eric Longenhagen had Taylor Hearn, Harold Ramirez and Reese McGuire all ranked in the same tier with a FV grade of 40 which he projects to bench or middle reliever, which was players 18-25 of the 42 players moved. FWIW, he listed Hearn above Ramirez and Ramirez above McGuire.
6.) There is a clamorous debate about whether the Pirates improved themselves for 2016 at the deadline. I'll pass on that, but the Pirates have undoubtedly gone a long way to strengthening their bullpen for 2017. With Tony Watson under contract the Pirates have a formidable trio of lefties in Watson, Felipe Rivero and Antonio Bastardo if he returns to his odd-year form in 2017. Others under team control for next year include Juan Nicasio, Jared Hughes, A.J Schugel and Arquimedes Caminero. It would figure that Neftali Feliz who, coming off this strong bounce-back season might command something like $21M/3 years, will be out of the Pirates price range.
On the Field:
7.) The Pirates bullpen has been lights out since late June. Here are some numbers since June 25, yep an arbitrary endpoint: 29 Games, 119 IP (4.1/gm), 1.89 ERA, 1.092 WHIP, 8.9 K/9, 24.9 K%, 2.6 BB/9, 7.2 BB%, 0.68 HR/9. The Pirates are 18-12 during that stretch, .600 baseball. Play .600 the rest of the way and they will finish with 88 wins.
8.) I have no idea how to describe Gerrit Cole's season. He's made 16 starts, but only thrown 92.1 innings, less than 6IP/start. But his numbers are outstanding and his peripherals solid. Meaningful? Meaningless? The team in 8-8 in his starts. He hasn't had an 8 strikeout game this season and he's only had 4 double-digit K games in 89 career starts. (Liriano has had three this year.) His fastball often appears flat, as was the case last night, and when that's the case he has trouble putting guys away in 2-strike counts. He threw 34 pitches to 11 batters with 2-strike counts last night, a really high number. Here is how they went (not sequenced by pitch):
1 pitch, popout
1 pitch, K (Freeman)
2 pitches, ball, single
7 pitches, 5 fouls, ball, double
4 pitches, 2 fouls, ball, K
3 pitches, ball, foul, double
2 pitches, foul, K (Freeman)
6 pitches, 4 fouls, ball, double
3 pitches, ball, foul, single
4 pitches, 2 fouls, ball, ground out
1 pitch, K (Freeman)
34 pitches, only 6 balls and didn't walk a batter. But 5 of the 11 reached base via hit and he gave up 15 foul balls. That's how you throw 97 pitches in five innings walking only two. Thank goodness for Freddie Freeman.
9.) Francisco Liriano and Jon Niese lead the Pirates in innings pitched going into tonight's game in Atlanta. Jeff Locke, making the start tonight, is third.
10.) Schedule for the next 3 series:
Pirates (8): @ ATL (2), Cin (3), SD (3)
Marlins (7): ChiC (1), Col (3), @ SF (3)
Mets (8): Yanks (2), Det (3), @ AZ (3)
Cards (8): Cin (2),  @ ATL (3), @ Cin (3)
LAD (8): Col (2), @ Bos (3), @ Phil (3)
This would be a great time to run off six in a row or seven of eight. Locke, Vogelsong, Taillon and Nova are making the next four starts.

Sunday, July 31, 2016

Ranking the Pirates MVP Through the first 100 Games

After seemingly not having an off day for months, the Pirates have three in eight days going into Monday's trade deadline, so plenty of time to kill. Rather than propose 50 different unlikely-to-happen trade scenarios, I thought I take a stab at an MVP vote for the Pirates to this point in the season. I'm sure there will be plenty of different opinions on this, but one thing is for sure. Nobody's list is going to look remotely close to what they would have predicted at the beginning of the season.
From 10 to 1, here it is:
10B.) Jung Ho Kang:
The sexual assault allegations that surfaced on July 5th undoubtedly are weighing on Kang. It's unclear exactly when he was made aware of them, but since the time they were made public he's slashed .184/.262/.289, for a .551 OPS. He's now splitting time with David Freese at third. Kang has made a nice recovery from his injury and is playing an excellent defensive third base. Maybe his three-run double on Wednesday will lead to better things down the stretch.
The change in Sean Rodriguez in his age-31 season is pretty remarkable. SRod came into the season with a career slash line of .228/.295/.371, a .666 OPS and an 85 OPS+. Last season with the Pirates he drew five walks in 240 PA. This year in 207 PA, he's hitting .247/.330/.495, .825 with a 117 OPS+ and 19 walks. He's played excellent defense at five different positions and his ability to adequately handle shortstop means the Pirates don't have to carry an extra glove, as they have in years past, to give Jordy Mercer the occasional day off. If he's higher on your list I won't argue.
9.) Matt Joyce:
I didn't think Joyce should make the club out of spring training. I was more interested in seeing Jason Rogers off the bench even though that would have meant the Pirates lacked a left-handed bat for that role. Wow was I wrong. Who saw this coming? .283/.412/.559, .971 OPS. The only thing keeping Joyce from being in the top half of this list is he only has 177 PA. What a bounce back season at age 32. Along with SRod, David Freese and Adam Frazier, the Pirates the best bench in baseball.
8-7.) Neftali Feliz and Tony Watson:
Placing relievers on a list like this is always the most difficult decision for me. Both of these guys have been outstanding but I'll give Watson the slight nod because he has pitched 44.0 innings vs 39.1 for Feliz. After back-to-back rough outings on June 4th & 5th Watson has made 20 appearances and given up one run in 20 innings. Opponents are hitting .186/.240/.229 during this stretch.
It's hard to chose between Joyce, Freese and Feliz as Neal Huntington's best free agent offseason acquisition. At $3.9 million Feliz seemed to be a bit of an overpay. He's been worth all of that and more. From day one Hurdle slotted him into the seventh inning role and he's delivered with 45 Ks in 39.1 innings and a WHIP under 1.000.
6.) David Freese:
Another great offseason pickup by Neal Huntington. I'm not sure who the Pirates starting third baseman is right now. Freese is putting up his best numbers since this All-Star 2012 season and has been a capable corner infielder. The fact that he's had about 100 more PAs than Kang, SRod and Joyce moves him above them.
5.) Jordy Mercer:
This for sure will be the most-controversial ranking on the list and if you wanted to move Mercer back, I'd understand. While the defensive metrics aren't as kind to Jordy this year as they have been in the past, he continues to be a very consistent, reliable glove at the most important defensive position. Jordy's also having the best offensive season of his career. After posting a 69 OPS+ last year, he's at 103 this year and continues to rake against lefties with a .889 OPS. I think he's the most underrated player on the team.
Cole was equally difficult to place on this list and before Wednesday's superb first career complete game I might have put him behind Watson/Feliz. My knock on Cole this year is that he hasn't given the Pirates the innings you would expect from a front-of-the-rotation starter. In 15 starts he's only thrown 87.1 innings, an average of less than six an outing. But he's put up good numbers and the Pirates are going to need him to be dominant down the stretch and in the wild card game if they make the playoffs.
Apparently the Pirates are at least exploring the idea of dealing Melancon (which they now have done). While I understand the logic, anyone is available for the right price, it still would surprise me if it actually happens. Melancon's peripherals don't stack up with some of the other names on the market, but his results stack up with anyone's. It's hard to put a guy who has only pitched 41.2 innings this high on any list, but Melancon continues to be outstanding. The strikeout numbers aren't impressive, but he doesn't walk anyone, generates a ton of soft contact and has a WHIP under 1.000. There is zero chance the Pirates offer Melancon a qualifying offer at the end of the season, in my opinion, but think it will be fascinating to see what kind of offers he gets. Regardless of whether he's traded or leaves in free agency, he is in the books as having maybe the best four-year run by a reliever in Pirates history.
A breakout season for Polanco at age 24. It was pretty much a coin flip between he and Marte for the top spot. From day one of this year Polanco has show great plate discipline and a much-improved ability to handle lefthanders. He looks to be a perennial All-Star and top 10 MVP candidate for years to come.
Marte is slightly improved plate discipline away from being one of the ten best players in the NL. Although his home run numbers are down this year he is a legit five-tool star. He got the nod over Polanco due to defense and base running. His 36 stolen bases lead the majors and are just five off his career high. I still don't think Marte has tapped his full potential, but he's close. He and Polanco will form the core of this team for years to come.
At the beginning of the year every list ranking the Pirates best players would likely have included Andrew McCutchenFrancisco CervelliFrancisco Liriano and Josh Harrison. The fact that none of those guys made the list and the team is still four games over .500 bodes well if at least a few of them revert to form.

Thursday, July 28, 2016

Podcasts with Joe Sheehan and Tim Williams

Joe and Tim are weekly guests on my show. Joe, author of the Joe Sheehan Newsletter and contributor to Sports Illustrated and others, at 5:00 on Tuesdays and Tim, editor of Pirates Prospects, at 5:00 on Wednesdays. (Of course they both joined me at 4:30 this week, so that is not etched in stone.)

On Tuesday Joe and I discussed the Chapman trade, playoff probabilities and how teams should view the buy/sell decision and what the Pirates should do going into the trade deadline on Monday.

On Wednesday Tim became the first guest ever not only to stay through one break, but two. Pirates Prospects released their updated Top 50 list and we took an in-depth look at the list and also debated our differing views as to whether the Bucs should look to move so-to-be free agent Mark Melancon even thought they are only a couple games out of a wild card spot. (Part 1, part 2, part 3)

I hope you enjoy the conversations as much as I did.

Sunday, July 24, 2016

A Quick Look at the Dominating Run by the Pirates' Bullpen

The Pirates bullpen provided another solid outing yesterday, 6 IP, 8 H, 2 R, 0 BB, 8 K. Not quite as good as the dominating stretch we saw right before the All-Star break, but still very good. Over the last 30 days, from June 24, the Pirates bullpen has been the best in baseball. With the Pirates starters continually failing to go deep in games, the Bucs pen has pitched 104.1 innings in the 24 games played over that stretch, an astounding average of 4.1 innings/game, the most of any team.

During this run they have posted a 1.98 ERA (2nd), a 3.15 FIP (3rd) and a 3.55 xFIP (5th). The reason the Bucs are a little lower on the list in xFIP is that they have done an excellent job of keeping the ball in the park, allowing only 8 HRs, 0.69 HR/9 (3rd) during the current stretch with a GB% of 48.7% (5th). They've also done a great job of preventing batters who reach base from scoring with a league-best LOB% of 88.6%. (League average tends to come in around 70-72% depending on the season.) They have accumulated 1.6 WAR (1st) and are 9-1 (if you care about assigning wins & losses) with 11 saves (1st). Their 23.9% K-rate ranks 8th and their 6.6% BB-rate is 5th. Looking at some of the more advanced metrics, the Pirates also lead in WPA and RE24.

Here is a look at the individiual performances of the ten relievers who have seen action during this span. What stands out is how good a job Clint Hurdle has done of spreading out the workload among the group:

                                              Games/Innings/Runs

Juan Nicasio                             11      18.1        5
Jared Hughes                            11     13.2        3
Tony Watson                             13      13.0        1
Arquimedes Canminero            11      12.2        2
A.J. Schugel                              11      12.2        5
Mark Melancon                         13       12.1       2
Neftali Feliz                               13       12.0       3
Jon Niese                                    3        7.1        2
Jeff Locke                                    1        2.1       0
Kyle Lobstein                               1        0.0       0

Currently the Pirates are 50-47, 8.5 back of the Cubs in the NL Central and 3.0 games back of the second wild card spot with 65 game to play. With the trade deadline 8 days away it is going to be interesting to see if Neal Huntington seeks to add to the bullpen. The Pirates should have plenty of options once rosters expand September 1, but will Huntington look to supplement this group before then? One thing seems certain, the continuing struggles of the Pirates starters mean the bullpen may well decide the team's playoff fate.

Thursday, July 21, 2016

A Decent (Contract) Proposal: The Pirates and Gerrit Cole


The May 10th announcement that Stephen Strasburg had signed a seven-year, $175 million deal with the Washington Nationals was about as surprising as news gets in the world of major league baseball. The 27-year old righty, the number one overall pick in the 2009 amateur draft, was due to be a free agent at the end of the season. Strasburg was going to be the jewel in an otherwise dreadful crop of scheduled-to-be free agent pitchers. Zack Greinke's six-year, $206 million deal and David Price's seven-year, $217 million deal, both signed this past offseason, were expected to be baselines for his agent Scott Boras, the agent known as being the most aggressive in having his clients pursue free agency, in any negotiation. Instead, when Nationals owner Ted Lerner reached out to Boras about a long-term deal and Strasburg expressed interest, a deal got done.

Strasburg's career has had its ups and downs. He debuted June 8, 2010 against the Pirates striking out 14 and walking none in a 5-2 Nationals win. But he only made 12 starts that year, tearing his UCL and undergoing Tommy John surgery in September. A year later he made five September starts and then was famously shutdown the following September during a dominating 2012 season (197K, 48BB, 15 HR, 2.83 FIP in 159.1IP) when he reached the Nationals self-imposed innings limit, not pitching in the postseason as the Nats were eliminated by the St. Louis Cardinals. Strasburg pitched a career-high 215 innings in 2014, but various ailments limited him to 127.1 innings last year. This season Strasburg has been fantastic and is on pace to put up the best numbers of his career.

Like Strasburg, Gerrit Cole was a number one overall pick, selected by the Pirates in 2011. Like Strasburg, Cole is represented by Boras. Like Strasburg, Cole has experienced big success, he finished fourth in NL Cy Young voting last year, but has also had difficulty staying healthy. So does the Strasburg signing now make the unthinkable idea of a Cole extension possible?

I think it does.

We can go through a list of players who might be viewed as comparable to Cole and try to triangulate a first-year arbitration award in 2017. If you look at the numbers of Alex Cobb, Jose Fernandez, Garrett Richards and Jake Arrieta among others I think $5 million seems a reasonable guess today for Cole's projected arbitration salary this coming offseason. (The idea here is to present a general framework rather than get bogged down on the specific numbers for each season.)

Using that as a starting point and assuming Cole is able to sustain front-of-the-rotation type performance (and why would the Pirates do the deal if they didn't believe that), $9-11 million and $14-16 million would seem to be reasonable projections for 2018-19. The estimates may slightly skew to the high-side for Cole even though we are continuing to see a rapidly-increasing pay scale for starting pitching, but they seem reasonable.

Simply using $5M, $10M, $15M for the next three seasons means Gerrit Cole would make $30M from 2017-2019 if he is able to maintain his level of performance.

From this point it's more art than science. The Strasburg deal has certain levels of complexity that the Pirates are not likely to propose. Under the terms of his deal with the Nats Strasburg gets paid $18.333M in each of the next two seasons, what would have been his first two years of free agency, and then $38.333M in 2019, after which there is a player opt-out. The deal is uniquely structured over the final four years as well if Strasburg elects to stay in DC giving him the opportunity to realize the full $175 million.

I am proposing a far-simpler deal for Cole and the Pirates. A five-year, $70 million deal. It would pay Cole $20 million for each of his two free agency seasons, 2020 and 2021, in addition to the $30 million outlined above.

Why the Pirates Do the Deal
  • Cost certainty. Much like the deals they have done with McCutchen, Marte, Harrison and Polanco this gives the Pirates cost certainty through Cole's arbitration years while buying out his first two years of free agency.
  • Below-market free agency seasons. $20M is well below-market for today's front-line starters and will be even more so four years from now. If Cole pitches like he did in 2015, in 2019 and 2020, $20M will be a steal. 
  • Revenues are continuing to skyrocket. The vast majority of MLB's new national television dollars will be paid out over the next five years and the Pirates local television deal will come up for renewal. They can afford this deal.
Why Cole Does the Deal
  • $70 million is a lot of money. Guaranteed. Cole was given an $8M signing bonus when he signed a minor league deal with the team five years ago after being drafted number one overall. (Boras and Cole turned down an $8.5M major league deal running through 2016 at the time because they projected the deal they signed to be worth an additional $1.4M. Turns out it will be closer to an additional $2M.) But $70M is generational-changing wealth.
  • Pitchers get hurt. The old line about there being two kinds of pitchers, those that have been injured and those who will be injured seems more true today than ever before. Coming back from Tommy John seems almost routine today, but even that isn't guaranteed. Cole hasn't suffered a serious injury, but he has been on the disabled list in two of his three full major league seasons.
  • He would still hit free agency at the relatively young age of 31. Greinke just got $206M guaranteed in free agency coming into his age-32 season. Cole will still get a monster contract if he performs.
Why the Pirates Don't Do the Deal
  • The team operates on a very tight, self-imposed budget. Cole would stand to make well over 10% of total payroll in 2019 when he's making a mere $15M. The Bucs have already committed $11.5M to Francisco Cervelli, $10.3M to Starling Marte and $6.1M to Gregory Polanco in '19 so that means they would have over $40M tied up in four players.
  • Pitchers get hurt (see above). A career-ending injury to a player on this type of deal could derail the Pirates' financial plans for years.
  • They have a full pipeline of good young pitchers. Jameson Taillon, Tyler Glasnow, Chad Kuhl and Steven Brault all made their debuts in the last two months. They are affordable and controllable and there appear to be more talented young starters behind them.
Why Cole Doesn't Do the Deal
  • While $70M is a helluva lot of money Cole will be seriously underpaid in 2020 and '21 if he is a front-of-the-rotation starter.
  • While pitchers do get hurt, Strasburg is just the latest example of a pitcher to hit the mother lode after Tommy John surgery.
  • This will have no bearing on a deal getting done one way or the other.
Conclusion:
  • I've presented this deal to a bunch of people in the industry. The response has been mixed, which is exactly what I expected. There isn't a consensus that the deal is overly favorable for either side. Those generally are the type of deals that have a chance to get done. With Cole coming back from injury and still three-plus years away from free agency, now might be the perfect time for both sides.

Friday, July 15, 2016

The Pirates Upcoming Roster Crunch



The Pirates return to action Friday against the Washington Nationals. After having virtually no days off in the two month run-up to the All-Star game, the Pirates will have three days off leading up to the August 1st non-waiver trade deadline and they will be off that day as well. The schedule and the impending roster crunch provide Neal Huntington opportunities and challenges in dealing with the 25- and 40-man rosters. 

Let's take a look at the current roster and speculate on how things may play out over the next 16 days. Here is the Pirates current active roster, players on the disabled list and some others who have been active this year as of Thursday:

Catchers (2)Eric Fryer, Erik Kratz

Infielders (7): John Jaso, Josh Harrison, Jordy Mercer, Jung Ho Kang, David Freese, Sean Rodriguez, Josh Bell

Outfielders (5): Gregory Polanco, Andrew McCutchen, Starling Marte, Matt Joyce, Adam Frazier

Starting Pitchers (4): Francisco Liriano, Jeff Locke, Jon Niese, Chad Kuhl

Relief Pitchers (7): Mark Melancon, Tony Watson, Neftali Feliz, Juan Nicasio, Arquimedes Caminero, A.J. Schugel, Jared Hughes

Disabled List (6):
Catchers:
Francisco Cervelli (15-day DL, currently eligible to be activated), Chris Stewart (15-day DL, eligible to come off July 18), Elias Diaz (60-day DL, currently eligible to be activated)

Pitchers: Gerrit Cole (15-day DL, currently eligible to be activated), Jameson Taillon (15-day DL, eligible to come off July 16), Ryan Vogelsong (60-day DL, eligible to come off July 23)

In Indy, Been Up This Year and on 40-man (5): Alen Hanson, Jason Rogers, Steven Brault, Wilfredo Boscan, Kyle Lobstein

That's 36 players in total and means there are hundreds of different scenarios as to how things can play out going into the trade deadline. Let's take a shot. This is not necessarily exactly how I would do things, this is what I expect Neal Huntington and the Pirates to do.

Thursday the Pirates announced their starting rotation for the weekend series. Francisco Liriano will start Friday, Gerrit Cole will be activated from the disabled list and start Saturday and, in a bit of a surprise, Chad Kuhl will start on Sunday. Kuhl is a complete head-scratcher. He has not been impressive in his first three career starts. The only rationale behind the Pirates decision that I can come up with is they want to start a RHP versus the Nationals who have a team OPS of .835 vs. lefties and .732 vs. righties. Okay, so that rules out Locke/Niese, but why choose Kuhl over Taillon who is eligible to come off the disabled list Friday? I'm guessing the Pirates don't want Cole and Taillon pitching back-to-back in the rotation. I'll come back to that in a second.

The Pirates will have one important decision to make before playing any games against the Nats. They'll have to determine if Gregory Polanco is able to play or if he needs to go on the 15-day DL retroactive to Saturday, July 9. I'll guess Polanco is refreshed by the week off and remains active and starts in right field over the weekend.

When the Pirates activate Cole Saturday it will get them back to their preferred 12-man pitching staff, meaning a position player will be sent down (If Polanco goes on the DL, Cole will take his spot and the following discussion is moot). There are only two choices here, Bell or Adam Frazier. Bell's weekend debut was the stuff of lore, but my guess is he is sent out Saturday. Frazier has been solid in his time up with the club. Remember it was his 8-pitch walk off of Jake Arrieta that preceded Bell's first career hit that ignited the Pirates winning rally last Friday against the Cubs. Frazier provides more versatility than Bell (although he is an outfielder in name only, probably no better than Bell, but for obvious reasons the Pirates aren't going to use Bell in the outfield after two years away from the position) and can be used as a pinch-runner. I know this will disappoint Pirates fans, but I think that's the likely move.

The next move comes after the Pirates day off on Monday. As mentioned Jameson Taillon is eligible to come off the disabled list Friday, July 15. Taillon, along with Liriano and Cole are the only three starters guaranteed to be in the Pirates rotation on August 2. I expect the Pirates to activate Taillon Tuesday for the start of the series against Milwaukee. This will then situate Liriano between Taillon and Cole in the rotation, which is the desired alignment, the lefty between two hard-throwing righties. With Taillon active another pitcher has to go and Chad Kuhl is the obvious answer. Reports suggest the Pirates are actively trying to move both Jeff Locke and Jon Niese, but I don't expect other teams to bite this early for such marginal guys, so Kuhl's gone. Taillon-Liriano-Cole start versus the Brewers.

Now let's look at the position players. Next week is going to be the week of the catcher, with there likely to be a complete shuffling of the depth chart at the top of the organization. Francisco Cervelli started a rehab stint at Triple-A Indianapolis Thursday night going 2-for-4 with a walk and catching seven innings. I would imagine Cervelli will get today off and then catch seven-nine innings on Saturday and then see if he can come back and catch again Sunday. If things go smoothly, expect Cervelli to be activated on or around Tuesday for the Brewers series.

That leads to the easiest of the various roster moves, DFA'ing Erik Kratz. Kratz has had a few good moments during his second stint with the Bucs, but his -27 OPS+ in 50 plate appearances (and at bats, since he has no walks) means he's gone, which also opens up a spot on the 40-man roster. With the open spot, the Pirates can activate Elias Diaz, rehabbing with Class-A Bradenton, from the 60-day DL and send him to Indianapolis.

Catcher Chris Stewart will also be eligible to come of the DL by the time the Brewers come to town. Stewart's season goes one of two ways: his knee is good enough that he can play through the pain the rest of the season or he has season-ending knee surgery. Let's assume Stewart is good-to-go. That leads to a tough decision. My best guess is the Pirates will send Stewart to Indy for his own rehab stint when Cervelli is activated. If Cervelli proves he is healthy and can be the everyday catcher, then the Pirates activate Stewart sometime between now and the trade deadline. This will lead to the swapping out of the other catcher recently acquired, Eric Fryer. While I'm sure the Pirates would love to somehow keep Fryer in the organization until the rosters expand on September 1, I don't think they will be able to do it. And with Diaz now back, Fryer becomes expendable. I also don't think the Bucs will entertain the idea of carrying three catchers when Stewart comes back. So Fryer is the next to go, creating another 40-man roster spot, and the Pirates have their top three catcher back and active for the first time since early April.

Back to the pitchers. Now the most difficult decision. Tyler Glasnow is scheduled to start in Indianapolis on Monday. I expect him to make that start. At the major league level the Pirates need a starter not named Taillon, Liriano or Cole for the first two games against the Phillies next Friday and Saturday. If he's on the roster I think Jeff Locke gets the ball Friday night. Saturday is the big decision. If no trades or other roster moves have been made to that point the Pirates will have the option of starting Jon Niese or recalling Tyler Glasnow and making a corresponding roster move. The complicating factor here is the Pirates will only play six games in the following nine days, with days off Monday, Thursday and the following Monday. After the Saturday start they could comfortably operate with a 4-man rotation until Saturday, August 6th against the Reds, but they may prefer to give the starters as much rest as possible.

So that becomes the big question. Do the Pirates bring up Tyler Glasnow, essentially for good, a week before the deadline and make a corresponding roster move, (DFA'ing Jon Niese would appear to be the most obvious although they could option Jared Hughes to the minors and put Niese in the pen), or do they give Jon Niese the ball one more time and hope for the best? I'd prefer Glasnow, but I'm guessing it will be Niese as Huntington tries to manage his assets as aggressively as possible until the deadline without having to give anything away.

If the Pirates were to DFA Niese and he did clear waivers they could outright him to Indianapolis and look to recall him September 1 when rosters expand, or earlier if needed. As a six-year veteran Niese would have the right to refuse the assignment and become a free agent and the Pirates would still be obligated for the remainder of his salary.

After that decision it would appear to be relatively smooth-sailing until the deadline. Ryan Vogelsong will be eligible to come off the 60-day DL on July 23. If Fryer is DFA'd there will be an open 40-man spot for him, but there wouldn't appear to be a spot on the 25-man unless someone goes down with an injury or a trade opens things up. Vogelsong pitched for Altoona on July 10. so the Pirates have 30 days from that date to activate him. I'd expect Neal to use almost all of that time to make a decision.

The last question is what to do with Josh Bell. If he is sent down on Saturday, he'll be eligible to come back up July 27th. I'll leave that one to you.