The decisions made the last days of spring training aren't as clearcut as usual this year. There are still 28, maybe even 29 guys who could potentially make the Opening Day 25-man roster. And, according to GM Neal Huntington, the last few decisions may not actually be made until the morning of the first game--a clear attempt to try and increase the chances that those who have to clear waivers actually do. (While I don't actually believe this makes a difference, the general thought is that with so many players being waived, teams are more likely to stay with their own guys unless there is a clear and obvious upgrade. Toss your guys in with the masses and they are going to be less scrutinized. Like I said, I don't buy it. With the sophistication in today's front offices, nothing slides by, but there is no reason not to do it this way.) Earlier this week I wrote about the position players. Today, the starters.
Note: This is how I expect the Pirates to construct their rotation on OD.
Starting Pitchers (5): Gerrit Cole, Jameson Taillon, Ivan Nova, Chad Kuhl, Steven Brault, Drew Hutchison, Tyler Glasnow
I'm sure eyes immediately darted to the fifth starter spot. And while it is the least significant, most fungible of the five and is certain to be occupied by various players over the course of the season, it is the lightning rod topic for many fans.
But let's start at the top. The Pirates 2016 OD rotation consisted of Gerrit Cole, Francisco Liriano, Jon Niese, Jeff Locke and Juan Nicasio (who beat out Ryan Vogelsong in spring training). You get what you pay for. Out of 15 NL teams, the Bucs starters were 13th in innings pitched, 11th in ERA, 13th in WHIP, 13th in strikeouts and 9th in HRs allowed. Not good.
Every team in baseball had at least one starter give them 174.0 IP in 2016 except the Padres and the Pirates. Christian Friedrich gave the Padres a team-high 128.1 innings. Jeff Locke led the Pirates with 127.1 IP, but only 106.0 as a starter. Gerrit Cole led the team with 116.0 innings as a starter. By comparison the Cubs had five starters throw at least 165 innings and the Cardinals had four. If your starters throw as few innings as the Pirates starters, your season is, well, a non-starter.
Gerrit Cole and Jameson Taillon are the key to the Pirates relevance. The Pirates need to get 350+ top-level starter innings from the two to be a contending team. Key in on the K-rate for both. Cole struck out a career-low 19.4% of batters last year, a big drop from the 24% of each of the previous two seasons. He also posted career-high numbers in BB%, XBH% and LD% while only going more than six innings in six of 21 starts. Cole needs to stay healthy and find his 2015 form that saw him place fourth in NL Cy Young voting.
Taillon was all the Pirates hoped for coming off two missed seasons. He showed excellent control, walking only 4.1% of batters faced and showed maturity, poise and pitching-sense that you don't often see in rookie pitchers. He threw 165 innings between AAA and the majors and if he can bump that up to 180-190 and continue to improve, the Pirates will be set at the front of the rotation.
In an ideal world Ivan Nova and Chad Kuhl would be your fourth and fifth starters. Nova basically replicated J.A. Happ's sensational 2015 performance when he came over from the Yankees at the trade deadline last year. For Nova, a RHP, going from Yankee Stadium to PNC Park in the last months before free agency was a winning lottery ticket. (Although I think everyone was surprised at the relatively cheap terms he agreed to with the Pirates.) His HR/FB ratio went from 15.1% with the Bombers to 4.5% with the Bucs. His walk rate went from a good 5.9% to an absurd 1.1% walking just three batters in 64.2 IP, and he went deep in games tossing three of the Pirates five complete games in just 11 starts. If he takes just a small step back from the 3.06 ERA (2.52 FIP) he posted with the team last year and does it over 30 starts, he will be the biggest bargain in this year's free agent class.
Lump Kuhl in with uber-prospect Glasnow, Brault, Hutchison**, Trevor Williams and eventually Nick Kingham as the Pirates young hopefuls. The team came to spring training looking to fill two rotation spots from this group, with the assumption Kuhl would get one. He did. The battle for the other has been the talk of spring training. Coming in I ranked them Hutchison/Brault, Glasnow, Williams. Halfway through camp I gave Hutchison the edge. In his first three appearances he went 9 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 3 BB, 9 K. The job was his if he didn't implode. Even after two terrible outings, if he had pitched well on Tuesday against Boston I still think he would have been the guy. Instead he gave up 10 hits and nine runs in 3.2 IP. In his last three outings he posted this: 11.2 IP, 27 H, 21 R, 6 BB, 9 K. That's incomprehensibly bad. He left the Pirates no choice, getting optioned to AAA Wednesday morning.
(**Hutchison, through no fault of his own, wears the stigma of being the return in the Francisco Liriano deal. It was assumed by many in the fanbase and media that Huntington would give him the job to try to "save face" and justify the transaction even though he repeatedly said that would not be the case. Even if he had pitched well the shouts would have been that putting Hutchison in the rotation was a trade-justifying move. But instead Hutchison pitching terribly, screwing himself over. But, in some perverse way, he enhanced the view of Huntington with many fans/media. Huntington, rather than being criticized for acquiring a pitcher who doesn't appear to be of value, is now being praised for "trying to win" because he sent him to AAA. As ridiculous as it sounds, it's 100% true.)
The bigger surprise, with Hutchison performing so badly, was that Brault was optioned to AAA earlier this week. Brault has pitched reasonably well this spring and last year made seven starts with the Pirates while the other three rotation-contenders combined for six. He would provide the Pirates with a lefthanded starter in an otherwise all-righthanded rotation, a nice option at PNC park. It's still not clear to me why he is out of the running. But he is.
That leaves Glasnow and Williams. Obviously Glasnow is the prospect with the top of the rotation/ace ceiling while Williams' ceiling is more 4th/5th starter, situational bullpen/swing guy. Based on potential, the choice is obvous. But I'm convinced the Pirates would prefer Glasnow make 6-10 starts in AAA in order to continue working on his change up, continue getting comfortable with the 2-seamer, which he added back to his repertoire this spring, and work on controlling the running game. On top of that Williams has actually pitched better than Glasnow this spring and may give Bucs a better chance to win the first 6-10 times through the rotation.
So which way does it go? To me it's a toss up. I'd probably go with Williams and let Glasnow dominate in AAA until May 15-June 1 and then bring him up assuming all goes as planned. I've said many times that Glasnow is the most significant piece/wild card to the Pirates playoff hopes the next couple of years. If he develops into a frontline starter, the Pirates rotation is set for the next 3-5 years and a good bet to repeat their 2013-15 playoff seasons. If not, there is a gaping hole.
If Glasnow can replicate what Taillon did last year, over 20-25 starts, I think the Pirates can be an 85-88 win team. If not, the Bucs are likely to be closer to the 2016 version. I'd still let him marinate in AAA for a 6-8 weeks, but I'm guessing the Pirates make him the 5th starter and the Glasnow Era begins Saturday, April 8 against the Braves at PNC Park.
The decisions left to be made with less than a week of Spring Training remaining aren't as clearcut as usual. There are still 28, maybe even 29 guys who could potentially make the Opening Day 25-man roster. And, according to GM Neal Huntington, the last few decisions may not actually be made until the morning of the first game--a clear attempt to try and increase the chances that those who have to clear waivers actually do. (While I don't actually believe this makes a difference, the general thought is that with so many players being waived, teams are more likely to stay with their own guys unless there is a clear and obvious upgrade. Toss your guys in with the masses and they are going to be less scrutinized. Like I said, I don't buy it. With the sophistication in today's front offices, nothing slides by, but there is no reason not to do it this way.)
Note: This is how I expect the Pirates to construct their roster on OD.
Position Players (13):
Catchers (2): Francisco Cervelli, Chris Stewart
Straightforward. Cervelli is the starter, Stewart the backup. Both have a history of injury so Elias Diaz and Jacob Stallings are virtually certain to see major league action again this year. Diaz may even start the season with the team with Stewart currently nursing a groin injury.
Infielders (8): Josh Bell, Josh Harrison, Jordy Mercer, David Freese, Adam Frazier, John Jaso, Phil Gosselin, Alen Hanson.
I expect the infield to be influx the entire season. Similar to last year, the Bucs will open the season without Jung Ho Kang. Unlike last year, their is no timetable for his return. Josh Bell will be the first baseman, Jordy Mercer the shortstop. The rest is now up in the air.
Adam Frazier's solid 2016 and torrid spring may cause the team to act more quickly than I ever expected. Flashback to 2014 when Josh Harrison forced his way into the lineup, slashing .315/.347/.490 and finishing with a wRC+ of 137 that was third best on the team and top 20 in the NL. Hurdle had to find a spot in the lineup for Harrison and ended up settling on a rotation of 4 starters for 3 positions. Gregory Polanco was struggling in right field and Harrison ended up playing almost every day bouncing between second, third, and right. Like Harrison, I expect Frazier to force the Pirates hand. In fact, regardless of the Kang situation, I expect Frazier to be an everyday starter by the All-Star break, if not May 1. His defense is still below average, but he is already a better hitter than either Freese or Harrison and he is clearly the team's best option to bat leadoff. Harrison and Freese will end up alternating at third with Freese and Jaso backing up Bell at first.
I expect Phil Gosselin to make the team and play a role like Sean Rodriguez last year. Unfortunately I expect Gosselin to be much more 2014 SRod rather than 2016 SRod. He is probably the backup shortstop when Mercer needs a game off every three weeks, but like SRod, he isn't well-suited to the position. If Mercer were to go down for an extended stretch, Huntington might be actually be forced to turn to Gift Ngoepe or look for help outside the organization. Kang was originally slated to get 20-25 starts at shortstop this year, but that obviously isn't happening.
That leaves the 13th spot to Alen Hanson. If we have learned nothing else during Neal Huntington's tenure as GM, it's that he is very reluctant to willingly give up assets. Hanson is out of options. After a breakout minor league season in 2012, Hanson shot up the prospect rankings. But he has yet to break through. His inconsistent glove forced him off shortstop and now his best opportunity is likely to come with another organization. That this is only his age 24 season still works in his favor, but time is running short. Last week it was reported the Pirates were shopping Hanson, but no team is going to trade anything of value knowing the Pirates predicament. At some point this year, the Pirates are going to DFA Hanson and he probably gets claimed. I just don't think it will happen in the next week. He'll be on his first Opening Day roster on Monday. And I'm guessing it will be his only one with the Pirates. I don't see him getting any meaningful playing time barring multiple injuries.
Jose Osuna is the odd man out here. A bat-first, corner guy (all corner guys are bat-first, right?) Osuna has torn it up for the second straight spring. The schedule makers could have done him a favor by giving the Pirates two days off the opening week. Then the team could have skipped its fifth starter and taken Osuna north to Boston where they will open the season using a DH. Alas it is not to be as the Bucs will need their fifth starter in week one. Two months younger than Hanson and never considered a big-time prospect, Osuna has opened eyes with his bat over the past year. He'll make his major league debut this season, it just won't be on Opening Day.
Outfielders (3): Gregory Polanco, Starling Marte, Andrew McCutchen
It's a helluva trio and if all had performed to their ceilings it could have been one of the best outfields the game had ever seen. Alas, that appears wishful thinking as this is almost certainly their last season together. This year the defense has been realigned. I don't see how that can be anything but positive. But it is the trio's offense that will likely determine the Bucs' playoff chances. Polanco was en fuego during the World Baseball Classic and arguably the Dominican's best player, but is currently nursing a shoulder injury. He struggled big-time in the second half last year and has yet to put together a full season. Marte is one of the most athletically-gifted players in the game, but can he take that next step and be the top-5 MVP candidate I've been predicting the past two years? McCutchen's story has been the most-documented in the game the past nine months. His dropoff last year was unprecedented as Dave Schoenfield noted. But Dave's article coincided almost exactly with Cutch's return from a three-day unplugging (benching) Clint Hurdle gave him in Atlanta. From that point on he hit .284/.381/.471, virtually identical to his career numbers. The performance bell curve for this group is flatter than you might think.
My thoughts on Neal Huntington are well-documented. I think he's done an outstanding job overall, particularly with the limited resources he's been allocated. But, this is a spot where I'm sure he'd like to undo a trade he made after the 2015 season. Huntington traded outfielder Keon Broxton and reliever Trey Supak to the Brewers for Jason Rogers. I'm sure the Pirates viewed Rogers as a mix of Jose Osuna and Phil Gosselin. A bat-first player with some major league pedigree who could give them some right-handed power off the bench. It didn't work out. Rogers never did anything with the team last year, was DFA'd and signed with the team on a minor league deal. He's been injured most of the spring. Broxton had a great second half for the Brewers posting a .937 OPS with eight homers and 16 stolen bases in 169 plate appearances before fracturing his right wrist mid-September. He would be the ideal fourth outfielder for this team. Last year Matt Joyce fell into their lap and gave them outstanding, cheap produciton. Now they are going to be throwing utility infielders out there when the Big 3 need a day off. Not ideal.
Next Up: The Pitching Staff
Twitter: @DTonPirates
