Thursday, April 6, 2017

Tweets from Last Night: 12 Takeaways from the Pirates Extra Inning Loss

The Bucs lost 3-0 in 12 innings to the Red Sox Wednesday night. Here is what you need to know:

1.) Jameson Taillon was outstanding. He opened the game by going up the ladder to strike out Dustin Pedroia and generally showed a fastball that sat mid-90s.  But the key for Taillon was his ability to consistently get his curveball over for strikes.
In the fifth Taillon flashed his repertoire. With runners on first and third, no outs he struck out Pablo Sandoval with a 96 mph fastball. He K'd Sandy Leon with an 82 mph curve and he got Pedroia to bounce harmlessly back to the mound. He finished the night 7IP, 5H, 0R, 3BB, 6K, 95-59.

2.) Chris Sale was even better than Taillon and will challenge for the American League Cy Young Award.

He finished the night 7IP, 3H, 0R, 1BB, 7K, 104-69 and induced 14 swinging strikes. Sale showed four different pitches, consistently mixed speeds and had Pirates hitters off balance all night. The Pirates didn't have a base runner reach second base. Enough said.

3.) The Pirates flashed some leather. Andrew McCutchen, who looked out-of-sorts in the opener on Monday, made two good defensive plays. The big one was gunning down Leon at home after a sharp Pedroia single to right with two outs in the third. Leon ran through a stop sign and Cutch fired an 89-mph strike to Francisco Cervelli for the out. Cutch's throw will get most of the attention but it was Cervelli's short-hop scoop and tag that really deserves the gold star.
In the fourth inning Cutch also made a good catch at the wall on Mitch Moreland on a ball that might have gone out while earlier in the inning David Freese made an excellent barehand pickup and throw on a slow roller to nail Xander Bogaerts. The play ended up being reviewed and was too close to overturn. The replay took a relatively painless 1 minute and 15 seconds.
4.) I'm going to continue my years-long battle with ROOT Sports.
ROOT refuses to leave the K-box up on the side of the screen. I don't know if this is because they have a sponsor that they like to feature when they show replays or something else, but with today's technology, I basically find this inexcusable.

5.) Not much offense on display by either team the first two games of the season. The Bucs and Red Sox have played 41 frames and put up runs in 3 of them.
The were some swings, almost exclusively by the Sox, where off the bat they seemed to be trouble--Moreland's was a prime example--but the ball didn't carry.

6.) The Pirates finally got a leadoff batter on in the ninth for the first time all night when Jordy Mercer reached on a Pablo Sandoval error. Starling Marte, arguably the team's best hitter, strode to the plate. Only one thing went through my mind:
Hurdle bunted with Marte. He popped it up to Sandoval for an easy out. (EDIT: From the postgame comments it sounds like Marte bunted on his own. Hurdled said there was no bunt sign on, but didn't want to criticize his player "...when he says he's trying to help you win a game." This type of thing happened multiple times last season. If Marte did bunt on his own that's on the staff too. They have to better educate the players to game situations. Either way, not good.)
Cutch and Polanco followed with groundouts to second. The Pirates best chance was by the boards. The 27 outs are your most precious assets. Don't give them away!

7.) I really like the Pirates bullpen. I wrote about it on Opening Day. I'd love to see Hurdle utilize Rivero and Nicasio as Andrew Miller, multi-inning guys. Rivero's stuff is filthy and I think he may end up being one of the dominant relievers in the game sooner rather than later.
Typically we kill managers for leaving their best relievers in the bullpen on the road in the ninth inning as they wait for the save situation. (See playoffs 2016 Buck Showalter, Zach Britton.) The Pirates may find themselves in a similar situation to the Indians last year. Cody Allen was set as the closer while Andrew Miller, an equally good if not better reliever, could be used in all sorts of ways. The Pirates are set with two solid relievers in Hudson and Watson as their backend guys. Be creative with Rivero and Nicasio. Hurdle didn't use Watson in the ninth, choosing to go with Rivero instead. Was it because he was following Showalter's manager's handbook or was he using his best reliever? Either way, I was indifferent. That is a good problem to have.

8.) There have been very few offensive positives from the Pirates performance in Fenway thus far, but Francisco Cervelli, yep Cervelli, has been a bright spot. Cervelli sported about as empty a .377 OBP as you could possibly have last year. He slugged .322 and had an ISO of .058. Of players with 300 plate appearances, he was dead last in ISO. Hard to know how much of that was a result of injury, but so far this year, so good.
9.) There was lots of commentary about the Pirates defensive shifting after their Opening Day loss. Travis Sawchik had an excellent piece at Fangraphs called The Embattled Shift discussing the issue. Take note last night. The Pirates shifted against Chris Young, a righthanded batter, moving Jordy Mercer over into the hole to open the 10th inning. When Young pulled a Tony Watson fastball into the hole, off-the-bat I assumed it was a hit because I had yet to see the defensive alignment. When the camera changed, there was Jordy deep in the hole making a relatively routine play for the first out. Nobody, and I mean nobody, mentioned this. Well, that's not completely true:
Jackie Bradley, Jr followed with a single and after a Sandoval strikeout, Leon singled. Do with that what you will.

10.) Tony Watson's tenth inning may not look pretty in the boxscore, but it was better than advertised.
He gave up a bloop single and then got badly squeezed by the umpire and ended up walking Pedroia. With the bases loaded and game on the line he got Andrew Benintendi on a broken bat, soft grounder to second.

11.) Starling Marte got a 2-out single in the 11th.
12.) The Pirates lost the game in the 12th on another 3-run homer, this time by Sandy Leon off of Antonio Bastardo. First I have no idea why Hurdle didn't use Juan Nicasio for more than one inning. Earlier I talked about the versatility and flexibility afforded by having Rivero and Nicasio in the pen. In the 11th Nicasio threw 13 pitches and struck out two of the three batters he faced.
I don't know if the Pirates were ever going to score, but trotting Nicasio out there for the 12th seemed like a no-brainer. Didn't happen. Bastardo got the first out, but then walked Chris Young. With a 2-2 pitch coming Bastardo caught Young running on his pickoff move to first. Phil Gosselin had replaced Josh Bell at first.
Gosselin's inexperience at the position showed. Rather than step forward and toward second to catch the throw earlier and give himself a better angle, as a righty, to throw to second, he waited at the bag. When he got the ball he made a terrible throw to second and Bradley was safe. Sandoval walked three pitches later and Leon took Bastardo's second pitch deep into the Boston night, over the Green Monster, to end it.


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Monday, April 3, 2017

Pirates Opening Day Roster: The Relievers

Neal Huntington took away any potential Opening Day roster drama surrounding the Pirates pitching staff Friday night by announcing that Tyler Glasnow would start the season in the rotation and Trevor Williams had won the seventh spot in the bullpen. Last week I previewed the position players and the starters. Now let's take a look at the relievers.

The Bullpen (7): Tony Watson (L), Daniel Hudson (R), Felipe Rivero (L), Juan Nicasio (R), Antonio Bastardo (L), Wade LeBlanc (L) and Trevor Williams (R)

 Ever since Joel Hanrahan took over as closer in 2011 the Pirates have gotten somewhere between good to dominant work out of the back end of their bullpen. During that time the mantle of closer has been passed fairly consistently. Once the setup guy appears capable of handling the job, invariably at a cheaper cost, the Pirates have moved on from the proven closer™. Out of nowhere Jason Grilli emerged as a dominant reliever in 2012 so at season's end the Pirates traded Hanrahan to Boston for a package that included Mark Melancon. Grilli held the closer role for a year as Tony Watson and Melancon developed into a shutdown 7th-8th inning tandem. When Grilli struggled at the start of the 2014 season he was shipped out and Melancon stepped up, with Watson bumped to the 8th. For three seasons the pair was as good a backend bullpen duo as existed in the majors. Last season, with Melancon's impending free agency, the Pirates moved him at the deadline for a package highlighted by Felipe Rivero.

This year Watson inherits the closer role. It's one he took over for two months after the Melancon deal and it's one he'll likely only hold for a year before he becomes a free agent. After three outstanding seasons, Watson took a slight step back last year almost completely due to the long ball. In the previous three seasons the lefthanded Iowan gave up 13 home runs in 235.1 innings. In 2016 he gave up 10 in 67.2 with six coming in just 23.1 innings as closer. Since 2013 Watson has pitched more innings than any reliever in baseball racking up 292.0 frames (Melancon is second), but he only registered 20 saves. Do you believe there are unique attributes to being a closer? If so, Watson's performance at the end of last season probably raised at least a cautionary flag.

Daniel Hudson was one of the Pirates' two notable free agent signings. Hudson's an easy guy to root for gaining notoriety as one of the feature subjects in Jeff Passan's excellent book The Arm. Hudson has undergone two Tommy John surgeries and has transitioned from starter to reliever. His 2016 ERA was an unsightly 5.22 due to a 15 games stretch where he gave up 31 runs in 9.2 innings--downright Hutchisonian. The Pirates have enough confidence in Hudson that they have slotted him as the setup man with the task of getting the ball to Watson.

The most interesting guy in the Pirates bullpen, by far, is Felipe Rivero. If you want over-the-top crazy, wild optimism about what Rivero is going to be, I'm your guy. Rivero is a legit three-pitch pitcher who would be perfect in an Andrew Miller-type role if Hurdle chooses to use him that way. He can work multiple innings and has shown no platoon split. Rivero struck out 28.1% of the batters he faced last season. The concern is free passes. Rivero had an outstanding spring with 13 strikeouts while giving up only one walk and two hits in 10.0 innings. It would not surprise me to see Rivero strike out 35-40% of the batters he faces and approach 100 Ks in 70+ innings. It will be interesting to compare his performance with that of Melancon the next few years.

Juan Nicasio has dynamite stuff. The problem is he is a two-pitch guy who struggled against lefties last season giving up a .934 OPS vs. .638 for righties. It is worth nothing that Nicasio's OPS out of the pen was a solid .715 after posting .827 as a starter. Nicasio was outstanding again this spirng with a 15:0 K:BB ration in only nine innings. The difference is this season the Pirates weren't tempted to move him to the rotation. Last season he struck out 31% of batters faced out of the pen and in 13 of his first 23 relief appearances he went more than an inning before being used more conservatively after rosters expanded in September.

Antonio Bastardo was re-acquired by the Bucs at the trade deadline after signing a 2-yr, $12 million deal with the Mets after a productive 2015 with the Pirates. Bastardo's walk rate of 4.3BB/9 is his achilles heel. But he has an odd career pattern of being much better in odd-year seasons posting an ERA under 3.00 in '11, '13 and '15 while never being below 3.94 in '10, '12, '14 or '16. The Pirates are hoping the pattern continues. In just about 400 career innings the slow-working lefty has shown very little platoon split which should give Hurlde great flexibility.

Wade LeBlanc and Trevor Williams round out the bullpen. LeBlanc gives Hurdle a fourth lefty. Williams, who turns 25 this month, is a converted starter on his first OD roster. He will be the Pirates long-man and mop-up guy. The most interesting thing to watch with Williams is whether the Pirates will try to use him to piggyback Tyler Glasnow's starts. Watch that early on as Glasnow as been inefficient with his pitch counts throughout the spring.

Rule 5 pick Tyler Webb was returned to the Yankees. A.J. Schugel, Pat Light, Dovydas Neverauskas and Edgar Santana are all likely to work out of the pen at some point this season.

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Thursday, March 30, 2017

Pirates Opening Day Roster: The Starting Pitchers

The decisions made the last days of spring training aren't as clearcut as usual this year. There are still 28, maybe even 29 guys who could potentially make the Opening Day 25-man roster. And, according to GM Neal Huntington, the last few decisions may not actually be made until the morning of the first game--a clear attempt to try and increase the chances that those who have to clear waivers actually do. (While I don't actually believe this makes a difference, the general thought is that with so many players being waived, teams are more likely to stay with their own guys unless there is a clear and obvious upgrade. Toss your guys in with the masses and they are going to be less scrutinized. Like I said, I don't buy it. With the sophistication in today's front offices, nothing slides by, but there is no reason not to do it this way.) Earlier this week I wrote about the position players. Today, the starters.

Note: This is how I expect the Pirates to construct their rotation on OD.

Starting Pitchers (5): Gerrit Cole, Jameson Taillon, Ivan Nova, Chad Kuhl, Steven Brault, Drew Hutchison, Tyler Glasnow

 I'm sure eyes immediately darted to the fifth starter spot. And while it is the least significant, most fungible of the five and is certain to be occupied by various players over the course of the season, it is the lightning rod topic for many fans. 

 But let's start at the top. The Pirates 2016 OD rotation consisted of Gerrit Cole, Francisco Liriano, Jon Niese, Jeff Locke and Juan Nicasio (who beat out Ryan Vogelsong in spring training). You get what you pay for. Out of 15 NL teams, the Bucs starters were 13th in innings pitched, 11th in ERA, 13th in WHIP, 13th in strikeouts and 9th in HRs allowed. Not good.

 Every team in baseball had at least one starter give them 174.0 IP in 2016 except the Padres and the Pirates. Christian Friedrich gave the Padres a team-high 128.1 innings. Jeff Locke led the Pirates with 127.1 IP, but only 106.0 as a starter. Gerrit Cole led the team with 116.0 innings as a starter. By comparison the Cubs had five starters throw at least 165 innings and the Cardinals had four. If your starters throw as few innings as the Pirates starters, your season is, well, a non-starter. 

 Gerrit Cole and Jameson Taillon are the key to the Pirates relevance. The Pirates need to get 350+ top-level starter innings from the two to be a contending team. Key in on the K-rate for both. Cole struck out a career-low 19.4% of batters last year, a big drop from the 24% of each of the previous two seasons. He also posted career-high numbers in BB%, XBH% and LD% while only going more than six innings in six of 21 starts. Cole needs to stay healthy and find his 2015 form that saw him place fourth in NL Cy Young voting. 

 Taillon was all the Pirates hoped for coming off two missed seasons. He showed excellent control, walking only 4.1% of batters faced and showed maturity, poise and pitching-sense that you don't often see in rookie pitchers. He threw 165 innings between AAA and the majors and if he can bump that up to 180-190 and continue to improve, the Pirates will be set at the front of the rotation.

 In an ideal world Ivan Nova and Chad Kuhl would be your fourth and fifth starters. Nova basically replicated J.A. Happ's sensational 2015 performance when he came over from the Yankees at the trade deadline last year. For Nova, a RHP, going from Yankee Stadium to PNC Park in the last months before free agency was a winning lottery ticket. (Although I think everyone was surprised at the relatively cheap terms he agreed to with the Pirates.) His HR/FB ratio went from 15.1% with the Bombers to 4.5% with the Bucs. His walk rate went from a good 5.9% to an absurd 1.1% walking just three batters in 64.2 IP, and he went deep in games tossing three of the Pirates five complete games in just 11 starts. If he takes just a small step back from the 3.06 ERA (2.52 FIP) he posted with the team last year and does it over 30 starts, he will be the biggest bargain in this year's free agent class.

 Lump Kuhl in with uber-prospect Glasnow, Brault, Hutchison**, Trevor Williams and eventually Nick Kingham as the Pirates young hopefuls. The team came to spring training looking to fill two rotation spots from this group, with the assumption Kuhl would get one. He did. The battle for the other has been the talk of spring training. Coming in I ranked them Hutchison/Brault, Glasnow, Williams. Halfway through camp I gave Hutchison the edge. In his first three appearances he went 9 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 3 BB, 9 K. The job was his if he didn't implode. Even after two terrible outings, if he had pitched well on Tuesday against Boston I still think he would have been the guy. Instead he gave up 10 hits and nine runs in 3.2 IP. In his last three outings he posted this: 11.2 IP, 27 H, 21 R, 6 BB, 9 K. That's incomprehensibly bad. He left the Pirates no choice, getting optioned to AAA Wednesday morning. 

 (**Hutchison, through no fault of his own, wears the stigma of being the return in the Francisco Liriano deal. It was assumed by many in the fanbase and media that Huntington would give him the job to try to "save face" and justify the transaction even though he repeatedly said that would not be the case. Even if he had pitched well the shouts would have been that putting Hutchison in the rotation was a trade-justifying move. But instead Hutchison pitching terribly, screwing himself over. But, in some perverse way, he enhanced the view of Huntington with many fans/media. Huntington, rather than being criticized for acquiring a pitcher who doesn't appear to be of value, is now being praised for "trying to win" because he sent him to AAA. As ridiculous as it sounds, it's 100% true.)

 The bigger surprise, with Hutchison performing so badly, was that Brault was optioned to AAA earlier this week. Brault has pitched reasonably well this spring and last year made seven starts with the Pirates while the other three rotation-contenders combined for six. He would provide the Pirates with a lefthanded starter in an otherwise all-righthanded rotation, a nice option at PNC park. It's still not clear to me why he is out of the running. But he is.

 That leaves Glasnow and Williams. Obviously Glasnow is the prospect with the top of the rotation/ace ceiling while Williams' ceiling is more 4th/5th starter, situational bullpen/swing guy. Based on potential, the choice is obvous. But I'm convinced the Pirates would prefer Glasnow make 6-10 starts in AAA in order to continue working on his change up, continue getting comfortable with the 2-seamer, which he added back to his repertoire this spring, and work on controlling the running game. On top of that Williams has actually pitched better than Glasnow this spring and may give Bucs a better chance to win the first 6-10 times through the rotation. 

 So which way does it go? To me it's a toss up. I'd probably go with Williams and let Glasnow dominate in AAA until May 15-June 1 and then bring him up assuming all goes as planned. I've said many times that Glasnow is the most significant piece/wild card to the Pirates playoff hopes the next couple of years. If he develops into a frontline starter, the Pirates rotation is set for the next 3-5 years and a good bet to repeat their 2013-15 playoff seasons. If not, there is a gaping hole.

 If Glasnow can replicate what Taillon did last year, over 20-25 starts, I think the Pirates can be an 85-88 win team. If not, the Bucs are likely to be closer to the 2016 version. I'd still let him marinate in AAA for a 6-8 weeks, but I'm guessing the Pirates make him the 5th starter and the Glasnow Era begins Saturday, April 8 against the Braves at PNC Park.

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Tuesday, March 28, 2017

Pirates Opening Day Roster: The Position Players

The decisions left to be made with less than a week of Spring Training remaining aren't as clearcut as usual. There are still 28, maybe even 29 guys who could potentially make the Opening Day 25-man roster. And, according to GM Neal Huntington, the last few decisions may not actually be made until the morning of the first game--a clear attempt to try and increase the chances that those who have to clear waivers actually do. (While I don't actually believe this makes a difference, the general thought is that with so many players being waived, teams are more likely to stay with their own guys unless there is a clear and obvious upgrade. Toss your guys in with the masses and they are going to be less scrutinized. Like I said, I don't buy it. With the sophistication in today's front offices, nothing slides by, but there is no reason not to do it this way.)

 Note: This is how I expect the Pirates to construct their roster on OD.

 Position Players (13): 

 Catchers (2): Francisco Cervelli, Chris Stewart

 Straightforward. Cervelli is the starter, Stewart the backup. Both have a history of injury so Elias Diaz and Jacob Stallings are virtually certain to see major league action again this year. Diaz may even start the season with the team with Stewart currently nursing a groin injury.

 Infielders (8): Josh Bell, Josh Harrison, Jordy Mercer, David Freese, Adam Frazier, John Jaso, Phil Gosselin, Alen Hanson.

 I expect the infield to be influx the entire season. Similar to last year, the Bucs will open the season without Jung Ho Kang. Unlike last year, their is no timetable for his return. Josh Bell will be the first baseman, Jordy Mercer the shortstop. The rest is now up in the air. 

 Adam Frazier's solid 2016 and torrid spring may cause the team to act more quickly than I ever expected. Flashback to 2014 when Josh Harrison forced his way into the lineup, slashing .315/.347/.490 and finishing with a wRC+ of 137 that was third best on the team and top 20 in the NL. Hurdle had to find a spot in the lineup for Harrison and ended up settling on a rotation of 4 starters for 3 positions. Gregory Polanco was struggling in right field and Harrison ended up playing almost every day bouncing between second, third, and right. Like Harrison, I expect Frazier to force the Pirates hand. In fact, regardless of the Kang situation, I expect Frazier to be an everyday starter by the All-Star break, if not May 1. His defense is still below average, but he is already a better hitter than either Freese or Harrison and he is clearly the team's best option to bat leadoff. Harrison and Freese will end up alternating at third with Freese and Jaso backing up Bell at first.

 I expect Phil Gosselin to make the team and play a role like Sean Rodriguez last year. Unfortunately I expect Gosselin to be much more 2014 SRod rather than 2016 SRod. He is probably the backup shortstop when Mercer needs a game off every three weeks, but like SRod, he isn't well-suited to the position. If Mercer were to go down for an extended stretch, Huntington might be actually be forced to turn to Gift Ngoepe or look for help outside the organization. Kang was originally slated to get 20-25 starts at shortstop this year, but that obviously isn't happening.

 That leaves the 13th spot to Alen Hanson. If we have learned nothing else during Neal Huntington's tenure as GM, it's that he is very reluctant to willingly give up assets. Hanson is out of options. After a breakout minor league season in 2012, Hanson shot up the prospect rankings. But he has yet to break through. His inconsistent glove forced him off shortstop and now his best opportunity is likely to come with another organization. That this is only his age 24 season still works in his favor, but time is running short. Last week it was reported the Pirates were shopping Hanson, but no team is going to trade anything of value knowing the Pirates predicament. At some point this year, the Pirates are going to DFA Hanson and he probably gets claimed. I just don't think it will happen in the next week. He'll be on his first Opening Day roster on Monday. And I'm guessing it will be his only one with the Pirates. I don't see him getting any meaningful playing time barring multiple injuries.

 Jose Osuna is the odd man out here. A bat-first, corner guy (all corner guys are bat-first, right?) Osuna has torn it up for the second straight spring. The schedule makers could have done him a favor by giving the Pirates two days off the opening week. Then the team could have skipped its fifth starter and taken Osuna north to Boston where they will open the season using a DH. Alas it is not to be as the Bucs will need their fifth starter in week one. Two months younger than Hanson and never considered a big-time prospect, Osuna has opened eyes with his bat over the past year. He'll make his major league debut this season, it just won't be on Opening Day.

 Outfielders (3): Gregory Polanco, Starling Marte, Andrew McCutchen

 It's a helluva trio and if all had performed to their ceilings it could have been one of the best outfields the game had ever seen. Alas, that appears wishful thinking as this is almost certainly their last season together. This year the defense has been realigned. I don't see how that can be anything but positive. But it is the trio's offense that will likely determine the Bucs' playoff chances. Polanco was en fuego during the World Baseball Classic and arguably the Dominican's best player, but is currently nursing a shoulder injury. He struggled big-time in the second half last year and has yet to put together a full season. Marte is one of the most athletically-gifted players in the game, but can he take that next step and be the top-5 MVP candidate I've been predicting the past two years? McCutchen's story has been the most-documented in the game the past nine months. His dropoff last year was unprecedented as Dave Schoenfield noted. But Dave's article coincided almost exactly with Cutch's return from a three-day unplugging (benching) Clint Hurdle gave him in Atlanta. From that point on he hit .284/.381/.471, virtually identical to his career numbers. The performance bell curve for this group is flatter than you might think.

 My thoughts on Neal Huntington are well-documented. I think he's done an outstanding job overall, particularly with the limited resources he's been allocated. But, this is a spot where I'm sure he'd like to undo a trade he made after the 2015 season. Huntington traded outfielder Keon Broxton and reliever Trey Supak to the Brewers for Jason Rogers. I'm sure the Pirates viewed Rogers as a mix of Jose Osuna and Phil Gosselin. A bat-first player with some major league pedigree who could give them some right-handed power off the bench. It didn't work out. Rogers never did anything with the team last year, was DFA'd and signed with the team on a minor league deal. He's been injured most of the spring. Broxton had a great second half for the Brewers posting a .937 OPS with eight homers and 16 stolen bases in 169 plate appearances before fracturing his right wrist mid-September. He would be the ideal fourth outfielder for this team. Last year Matt Joyce fell into their lap and gave them outstanding, cheap produciton. Now they are going to be throwing utility infielders out there when the Big 3 need a day off. Not ideal.

 Next Up: The Pitching Staff

 Twitter: @DTonPirates
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Saturday, August 13, 2016

Pirates Struggling with Kang in Lineup & Some Weekend Listening

A nice win Friday night in Los Angeles as the Pirates started a six-game west coast road trip against the two NL West leaders. Two hits and a great defensive play by Andrew McCutchen once again raise hopes that he has figured out how to actually be, you know, Andrew McCutchen. Obviously that would go a long way to ensuring the Bucs make the playoffs for a fourth consecutive season.
Jung Ho Kang sat last night and has now started only 13 of the 24 games since the All-Star break and only two since August 4. We can all speculate as to the impact of the events of June 17 and the ensuing sexual assault allegations on Kang's performance, but it appears Kang has lost his job as the Pirates starting third baseman. Coincidence, correlation or causation, who knows exactly, but the Pirates are 10-1 in games NOT started by Jung Ho since the ASB and 2-11 in games he has started. Do with that what you will. If I'm Clint Hurdle, Kang goes the way of Gregory Polanco down the stretch in 2014 and only gets 1-2 starts a week.
I had some great guests on the show this week that I thought I'd link to if anyone would like to listen to the podcasts. On Monday I spoke with Pirates beat writer Travis Sawchik about his interview with GM Neal Huntington, thoughts on the deadline and the mood in the Pirates clubhouse. On Tuesday I spoke with Mike Petriello of MLB.com. Mike and I talked about the evolution of technology in MLB stadiums and specifically the data that is gradually becoming widely available, Pitch Fx, exit velocity, launch angles, spin rates, route efficiency and throw velocity among other things. We talked about how he analyzes the data, how major league teams and specific players are parsing and using the data and what is on the horizon in the months and years ahead.
On Wednesday and Thursday Joe Sheehan and Jonah Keri joined me. Joe is a weekly guest (usually Tuesdays) and this week we discussed ARod and the impact of PEDs. Joe (and Keith Law) is generally of the believe that there is no evidence that PEDs make baseball players better and, if I may paraphrase as best I can, believes the Steroid Era of the late '90s, early '00s is mislabeled. We followed that with a wide-ranging talk about the races going on right now. Jonah joined me Thursday. We hit on some of the same topics. Jonah and I share the view that PEDs did have an impact on the game and just because it isn't easily quantifiable, that doesn't mean it didn't exist. I also asked him whether he was outraged by the Pirates' moves at the deadline (Joe, like Charlie, generally thinks the Liriano trade was, for lack of a better term, a disgrace and something, with today's revenue sharing setup, that should never happen). We finished up with a look at the race in the NL West and for the NL wild card.
I also had my weekly Pirates discussion with Bob Smizik (Part 1 and Part 2) on Thursday. Bob's one of my favorite guests and, if you have a listen to this, I think you'll be more than convinced that Bob is right on top of what is going on with the Bucs.
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Wednesday, August 3, 2016

A Smorgasbord Heading into, um, Locke & Vogelsong

Some quick-hitters this morning with the trade deadline behind us. Warning, some of these thoughts/points may actually take a positive tone (some, not all, I promise), so if you are an unswayable member of the attack mob, please don't be distracted from your original targets. In many cases I am just a messenger.
1.) Don't look now, but with last night's win over the Braves and losses by the Marlins and Cards, the Pirates are one game back in the loss column for the second wild card spot. But with so many off days of late, the Pirates have played two fewer games than the Mets and Cards and three fewer than the Marlins, so there is still plenty of work to be done.
Trade Deadline:
2.) After some very strong criticism of the Pirates-Toronto trade, including Charlie's scathing rebuke, some well-known analysts have come out with more positive views of the deal. Keith Law (sub required) felt that both sides got some value out of the deal and specifically addressed the comparisons made to the Arizona-Atlanta deal made last season:
Both players (Reese McGuire and Harold Ramirez) have some value, but this isn't like Arizona giving up Tuoki Toussant, and they had been passed by better players in a strong Pirates system.
He concludes that it is a reasonable deal for both teams suggesting that if the Pirates can help Drew Hutchison rediscover the hard slider that he flashed at the end of 2014 the Pirates will have a bargain on their hands. Certainly a big if.
3.) My biggest issue relating to the analysis of the deal is the constant reference to McGuire and Ramirez as top 10 prospects. They were both top 10 prospects coming into the season. They were also both top 100 prospects in the game at one point in time. But, the 2016 minor league season is almost over, so that is a massive amount of data that will be poured over to re-evaluate where players stand. McGuire and Ramirez have not done anything this year to improve their prospect status. As Dave Cameron noted after the deadline over at Fangraphs:
The Pirates agreed to give both up because they just weren't really hitting this season; both in Double-A, McGuire had a 94 wRC+ and Ramirez had a 112 wRC+ based on a .363 BABip, but neither was showing any semblance of power.
Recognizing that process is as much the issue as talent here, I recognize this doesn't have to be the defining aspect of the deal, but it's worth noting.
Obviously how the Pirates allocate the $20+ million saved at the deadline and with Liriano off the books next year will be a huge component of how this deal is viewed.
4.) I had Joe Sheehan on my show yesterday to talk extensively about the trade deadline. In part 1 we reviewed the Pirates four deals and his take was similar to Charlie's, though maybe not as strong, in regard to the Liriano trade. We did actually discuss the other three as well. In part 2 we took a quick look at some of the other deals that went down. I really enjoyed this.
5.) Various analysts ranked all the prospects traded at the deadline. Again over at Fangraphs, Eric Longenhagen had Taylor Hearn, Harold Ramirez and Reese McGuire all ranked in the same tier with a FV grade of 40 which he projects to bench or middle reliever, which was players 18-25 of the 42 players moved. FWIW, he listed Hearn above Ramirez and Ramirez above McGuire.
6.) There is a clamorous debate about whether the Pirates improved themselves for 2016 at the deadline. I'll pass on that, but the Pirates have undoubtedly gone a long way to strengthening their bullpen for 2017. With Tony Watson under contract the Pirates have a formidable trio of lefties in Watson, Felipe Rivero and Antonio Bastardo if he returns to his odd-year form in 2017. Others under team control for next year include Juan Nicasio, Jared Hughes, A.J Schugel and Arquimedes Caminero. It would figure that Neftali Feliz who, coming off this strong bounce-back season might command something like $21M/3 years, will be out of the Pirates price range.
On the Field:
7.) The Pirates bullpen has been lights out since late June. Here are some numbers since June 25, yep an arbitrary endpoint: 29 Games, 119 IP (4.1/gm), 1.89 ERA, 1.092 WHIP, 8.9 K/9, 24.9 K%, 2.6 BB/9, 7.2 BB%, 0.68 HR/9. The Pirates are 18-12 during that stretch, .600 baseball. Play .600 the rest of the way and they will finish with 88 wins.
8.) I have no idea how to describe Gerrit Cole's season. He's made 16 starts, but only thrown 92.1 innings, less than 6IP/start. But his numbers are outstanding and his peripherals solid. Meaningful? Meaningless? The team in 8-8 in his starts. He hasn't had an 8 strikeout game this season and he's only had 4 double-digit K games in 89 career starts. (Liriano has had three this year.) His fastball often appears flat, as was the case last night, and when that's the case he has trouble putting guys away in 2-strike counts. He threw 34 pitches to 11 batters with 2-strike counts last night, a really high number. Here is how they went (not sequenced by pitch):
1 pitch, popout
1 pitch, K (Freeman)
2 pitches, ball, single
7 pitches, 5 fouls, ball, double
4 pitches, 2 fouls, ball, K
3 pitches, ball, foul, double
2 pitches, foul, K (Freeman)
6 pitches, 4 fouls, ball, double
3 pitches, ball, foul, single
4 pitches, 2 fouls, ball, ground out
1 pitch, K (Freeman)
34 pitches, only 6 balls and didn't walk a batter. But 5 of the 11 reached base via hit and he gave up 15 foul balls. That's how you throw 97 pitches in five innings walking only two. Thank goodness for Freddie Freeman.
9.) Francisco Liriano and Jon Niese lead the Pirates in innings pitched going into tonight's game in Atlanta. Jeff Locke, making the start tonight, is third.
10.) Schedule for the next 3 series:
Pirates (8): @ ATL (2), Cin (3), SD (3)
Marlins (7): ChiC (1), Col (3), @ SF (3)
Mets (8): Yanks (2), Det (3), @ AZ (3)
Cards (8): Cin (2),  @ ATL (3), @ Cin (3)
LAD (8): Col (2), @ Bos (3), @ Phil (3)
This would be a great time to run off six in a row or seven of eight. Locke, Vogelsong, Taillon and Nova are making the next four starts.
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Sunday, July 31, 2016

Ranking the Pirates MVP Through the first 100 Games

After seemingly not having an off day for months, the Pirates have three in eight days going into Monday's trade deadline, so plenty of time to kill. Rather than propose 50 different unlikely-to-happen trade scenarios, I thought I take a stab at an MVP vote for the Pirates to this point in the season. I'm sure there will be plenty of different opinions on this, but one thing is for sure. Nobody's list is going to look remotely close to what they would have predicted at the beginning of the season.
From 10 to 1, here it is:
10B.) Jung Ho Kang:
The sexual assault allegations that surfaced on July 5th undoubtedly are weighing on Kang. It's unclear exactly when he was made aware of them, but since the time they were made public he's slashed .184/.262/.289, for a .551 OPS. He's now splitting time with David Freese at third. Kang has made a nice recovery from his injury and is playing an excellent defensive third base. Maybe his three-run double on Wednesday will lead to better things down the stretch.
The change in Sean Rodriguez in his age-31 season is pretty remarkable. SRod came into the season with a career slash line of .228/.295/.371, a .666 OPS and an 85 OPS+. Last season with the Pirates he drew five walks in 240 PA. This year in 207 PA, he's hitting .247/.330/.495, .825 with a 117 OPS+ and 19 walks. He's played excellent defense at five different positions and his ability to adequately handle shortstop means the Pirates don't have to carry an extra glove, as they have in years past, to give Jordy Mercer the occasional day off. If he's higher on your list I won't argue.
9.) Matt Joyce:
I didn't think Joyce should make the club out of spring training. I was more interested in seeing Jason Rogers off the bench even though that would have meant the Pirates lacked a left-handed bat for that role. Wow was I wrong. Who saw this coming? .283/.412/.559, .971 OPS. The only thing keeping Joyce from being in the top half of this list is he only has 177 PA. What a bounce back season at age 32. Along with SRod, David Freese and Adam Frazier, the Pirates the best bench in baseball.
8-7.) Neftali Feliz and Tony Watson:
Placing relievers on a list like this is always the most difficult decision for me. Both of these guys have been outstanding but I'll give Watson the slight nod because he has pitched 44.0 innings vs 39.1 for Feliz. After back-to-back rough outings on June 4th & 5th Watson has made 20 appearances and given up one run in 20 innings. Opponents are hitting .186/.240/.229 during this stretch.
It's hard to chose between Joyce, Freese and Feliz as Neal Huntington's best free agent offseason acquisition. At $3.9 million Feliz seemed to be a bit of an overpay. He's been worth all of that and more. From day one Hurdle slotted him into the seventh inning role and he's delivered with 45 Ks in 39.1 innings and a WHIP under 1.000.
6.) David Freese:
Another great offseason pickup by Neal Huntington. I'm not sure who the Pirates starting third baseman is right now. Freese is putting up his best numbers since this All-Star 2012 season and has been a capable corner infielder. The fact that he's had about 100 more PAs than Kang, SRod and Joyce moves him above them.
5.) Jordy Mercer:
This for sure will be the most-controversial ranking on the list and if you wanted to move Mercer back, I'd understand. While the defensive metrics aren't as kind to Jordy this year as they have been in the past, he continues to be a very consistent, reliable glove at the most important defensive position. Jordy's also having the best offensive season of his career. After posting a 69 OPS+ last year, he's at 103 this year and continues to rake against lefties with a .889 OPS. I think he's the most underrated player on the team.
Cole was equally difficult to place on this list and before Wednesday's superb first career complete game I might have put him behind Watson/Feliz. My knock on Cole this year is that he hasn't given the Pirates the innings you would expect from a front-of-the-rotation starter. In 15 starts he's only thrown 87.1 innings, an average of less than six an outing. But he's put up good numbers and the Pirates are going to need him to be dominant down the stretch and in the wild card game if they make the playoffs.
Apparently the Pirates are at least exploring the idea of dealing Melancon (which they now have done). While I understand the logic, anyone is available for the right price, it still would surprise me if it actually happens. Melancon's peripherals don't stack up with some of the other names on the market, but his results stack up with anyone's. It's hard to put a guy who has only pitched 41.2 innings this high on any list, but Melancon continues to be outstanding. The strikeout numbers aren't impressive, but he doesn't walk anyone, generates a ton of soft contact and has a WHIP under 1.000. There is zero chance the Pirates offer Melancon a qualifying offer at the end of the season, in my opinion, but think it will be fascinating to see what kind of offers he gets. Regardless of whether he's traded or leaves in free agency, he is in the books as having maybe the best four-year run by a reliever in Pirates history.
A breakout season for Polanco at age 24. It was pretty much a coin flip between he and Marte for the top spot. From day one of this year Polanco has show great plate discipline and a much-improved ability to handle lefthanders. He looks to be a perennial All-Star and top 10 MVP candidate for years to come.
Marte is slightly improved plate discipline away from being one of the ten best players in the NL. Although his home run numbers are down this year he is a legit five-tool star. He got the nod over Polanco due to defense and base running. His 36 stolen bases lead the majors and are just five off his career high. I still don't think Marte has tapped his full potential, but he's close. He and Polanco will form the core of this team for years to come.
At the beginning of the year every list ranking the Pirates best players would likely have included Andrew McCutchen, Francisco Cervelli, Francisco Liriano and Josh Harrison. The fact that none of those guys made the list and the team is still four games over .500 bodes well if at least a few of them revert to form.
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