Clint Hurdle, Sabermetrician

Back in December, on the day the Pirates announced the signing of John Jaso, I tweeted out a Pirates batting order that I thought would be optimal vs. right handed pitchers.

My #Pirates (needs more thought) lineup vs RHP
1) Jaso
2) Cutch
3) Marte
4) Kang
5) Polanco
6) Cervelli
7) Harrison
8) Mercer
I like it.

— David Todd (@DTonPirates) December 23, 2015

Now I figured this was something even the analytically-driven Pirates would never adopt. Jaso is not the prototypical speedy leadoff hitter, but his .361 career OBP and his excellent baserunning skills make him an ideal candidate to hit at the top of the order. It is also the lineup spot he has been penciled into most frequently when playing for analytically-astute teams like the Rays and the A's. But the Pirates had Josh Harrison and Gregory Polanco both hit at the top of the order last year and both were back this year. Habit is a strong force to overcome. Plugging McCutchen in the 2-hole was something that seemed even less likely than batting Jaso leadoff. McCutchen hadn't hit anywhere but third or fourth since 2011, but all of a sudden Cutch batting second has been the feature story out of Bradenton with Opening Day less than two weeks away.

It's been argued for years now that teams should bat their best hitter in the 2-hole, but very few teams have actually done it. The Reds did it last year with Joey Votto. We've seen the Angels do it with Mike Trout. Clint summed up why he had never done it when he presented the idea to McCutchen, "I told Andrew the challenge for me is for 47 years, the baddest dude hits third. If got to rearrange my thinking on it and what's best for our team. How do we maximize our run production?" Now it looks like the Pirates will follow the Reds lead. We can debate the impact of lineup optimization and whether it's worth all the time we spend discussing it, but for a team like the Pirates that has appeared in three straight wild card games, The Clint Hurdle Invitational as Joe Sheehan likes to call it, every extra run can make a difference.

All of which reminded me of a story, one of the very first times I interacted with Hurdle.

Coming off a 105-loss season the Pirates introduced Clint as their new manager in November 2010. Clint was not a favorite of the sabermetric community and his hiring certainly raised some eyebrows and "same old Pirates" reactions. Of course none of this bothered Hurdle. Before the season he was very visible promoting the organization and talking frequently about "rebranding a city with its baseball team," laying out his plan to once again make the Pirates a respected, winning franchise. "I'm proud to be a Pirate," he had boomed at his introductory presser, a phrase not often uttered during the team's 18-consecutive losing seasons.

That season, my second back in Pittsburgh, I was hired to be the Pirates pre- and post-game host, so I had some interaction with Clint early on. Listening to him talk about baseball in those first weeks, he would often answer a question about why he pursued this or that particular in-game strategy ending it with something like, "there is no Book. If there was a Book, we would all just go to the appropriate page and have all the answers." Clint said this frequently enough that I realized he didn't know there actually was "a Book," and ironically, it was called The Book: Playing the Percentages in Baseball, written by three well-respected baseball statisticians in 2007. It covered topics such as batter-pitcher matchups, platooning, sacrifice bunts, intentional walks, lineup optimization and a plethora of other situations and strategies that are regularly encountered in the game. The authors approached all these topics by analyzing reams of historical data and then presenting the optimal decisions for each situation based on that analysis. The underlying premise being that by optimizing process and decision making a manager/team will give itself a better chance of "winning" each decision and therefore winning more games.

One Sunday morning in May of that first season I brought my copy of The Book to the media's pregame meeting with Clint in his office. After the briefing, when everyone had cleared out, I approached Clint who was sitting behind his desk. For those who don't know him, here is what Pirates GM Neal Huntington said when he introduced Clint as manager, "He does have a great personality, he's got a big presence and he's very charismatic, which allows him to be a tremendous leader." If anything Neal undersold that aspect of him.

That Sunday morning Clint probably knew my name, but not much more. I walked over and re-introduced myself. He stood up and extended his hand. Clint is a big man. If his goal was ever to intimidate, just standing up would be a good start. So there I was about to hand a book about baseball to a man who had spent his entire life in the sport. More than that, I had printed out a couple of pages from The Book which discussed run expectancy and why sacrifice bunts were generally a bad idea and, by inference, why Clint using the sac bunt so much was a bad idea. I mean I'd been involved in the game as a broadcaster for a couple weeks now. Why shouldn't I tell the manager what I thought?

Clint had every right to tell me exactly where to stick my book and kick me out of his office. He did the opposite. He couldn't have been more gracious. He admitted he was unaware The Book existed. (How many would do even that?) And after I briefly described its contents he engaged me for five minutes, even discussing the run expectancy printouts and the theory behind it. Having overstayed my time, with him having a game to prepare for, I turned to walk out. Clint thanked me and said he looked forward to reading and discussing The Book.

Fast-forward to spring training 2016. Under the stewardship of Neal and Clint the Pirates are one of baseball's model-franchises. They are viewed as being on the cutting-edge of data analysis and are at the forefront of implementing change in the game, which is wonderfully-profiled by Travis Sawchick in his fantastic book Big Data Baseball. Each season the Pirates have tried to find advantages from pitching inside, to defensive shifting to player health management where they can find an edge on the competition.

This spring the Pirates have experimented with a more aggressive running game. Is that something that can be exploited now that the running game has been de-emphasized in today's lower run environment? The data have shown they need to have their outfielders playing shallower because fly balls from their primarily ground ball pitching staff have a shallower launch angle and too many balls were falling in for hits. And now they are looking to optimize their batting order.

The guy in charge of implementing these and all the other changes is a very different manager than the one the Pirates hired back in 2010. One that has committed himself to learning and adapting to changes in the game and then communicating that information to his coaches and players to get an organizational buy-in. The results have been staggering to many who think small-market teams can no longer compete. The Pirates have won 94, 88 and 98 games the past three seasons, one of only three teams to make the playoffs all three years. The guy in charge is still Clint Hurdle. But now it's Clint Hurdle, sabermetrician.

Gerrit Cole and a Brutal, Misfocused 72-Hour News Cycle for the Pirates

I think now everybody has taken their shot at the Pirates.

I'm sure you've seen the story. Late Saturday night it was reported the team had offered Gerrit Cole a paycut after a 2015 season where he finished fourth in the National League Cy Young Award voting. Less than 16 hours later the beat writer who broke the original story wrote another about how Pirates General Manager Neal Huntington admitted the Pirates made a mistake:

“We made a mistake in the process,” Huntington said. “We've owned that. We'll evolve. Our hope is that Gerrit is ready to move forward and put this behind him.”

Under baseball's rules, Gerrit Cole is an indentured servant, like every other player, until he accrues three years of service time. During those three years, as long as a MLB team offers a player at least the league minimum salary of $507,000, the player has no recourse. The Pirates made Cole and his agent Scott Boras a contract offer of $538,000. It turns out that number happened to be $3,000 less than the $541,000 Cole earned last year. Depending how you want to slice it Cole actually got a raise. His 2015 salary was $531,000 and he also received a $10,000 bonus for making the All-Star team. Assuming a similar bonus was in effect with the Pirates offer this season, there isn't much of story here. In any business, bonuses are different than base salaries. Raises come off the base salary. Cole got a raise, small as it is, from $531K to $538K. But he wasn't guaranteed to make more money than he did last year. And that set off the alarm bells for Scott Boras and got all of baseball focused on the Pirates in the lull before spring training games commenced.

Boras saw blood in the water and wasn't going to pass up the opportunity to turn the story into a national feeding-frenzy with the Pirates as the chum. Not surprisingly, he spoke up,

“When you have a system that doesn't account for special performances by a player, it doesn't reward those achievements,” Boras said.

A bit more surprising was the fact that Gerrit Cole commented as well,

“I understand the business of this game, but it is hard to accept that a year of performance success does not warrant an increase in pay,” Cole told the Tribune-Review.

I have no problem with Cole voicing his opinion. He is the new Pirates player rep having taken over for Neil Walker. Maybe both he and Boras thought this was a good way to make an impression on his teammates and the Players' Union about being a vocal contributor in his new role. Fine.

The issue I do have a problem with is Cole's revelation the Pirates actually "threatened" to cut his pay back to the minimum of $507K if he didn't sign the deal that was offered. Players actually have no obligation to sign the actual contract and more than one player has played out the season without signing, viewing that as their only available form of protest. But I don't even know where to go with the thought the Pirates actually played the real paycut-card. It's hard to believe anyone with any authority in the organization would suggest that to either Boras or Cole. If there is a story, this is it and it should be addressed.

But it's worth pointing out again, that the Pirates immediately admitted to making a mistake. The clerical process of submitting Cole's contract to his agent is about five pay-grades below Neal Huntington's duties. The team obviously wasn't factoring in bonuses to formulaic, rubber-stamped pay increases. Someone messed up and the Pirates are getting bombarded with bad PR. Buster Olney took his shot at the Bucs and their "penny-foolish" ways. Joe Posnanski dropped Cole's tale of woe into a larger story of today's player economics and my friend Dave Schoenfield, who I think missed the mark, compared the Cole situation to the Royals extension of catcher Salvador Perez.

I am the last to defend the Pirates and Bob Nutting's frugal ways. I have spent the last four months on my show on ESPN Pittsburgh (and the three years prior) ripping the team for their limited, self-imposed budget and a starting rotation that is to include Jeff Locke and more-shockingly, free agent Ryan Vogelsong to open the season. Tyler Glasnow, Jameson Taillon, Josh Bell, Elias Diaz and Alen Hanson and their corresponding minimum salaries of $507K are all expected to matriculate to the majors over the next 12-18 months. In addition, more than $25+ million in salaries will be coming off the books next year with Mark Melancon ($9.65M), Michael Morse (~$5M), Neftali Feliz ($3.9M),  Francisco Cervelli ($3.5M), Juan Nicasio ($3M) and Sean Rodriguez ($2.5M) all becoming free agents and likely to leave. This season seemed the perfect year to spend a bit more to supplement one of the best rosters in baseball with more starting pitching depth as payroll is likely to fall next year. The Pirates didn't do that. And if they miss the playoffs while waiting for Glasnow & Taillon to develop, and more-pointedly get past the Super-2 window, there should be hell to pay. But after winning 94, 88 and 98 games the last three years under Nutting's Draconian financial policies, Neal Huntington deserves the benefit of the doubt. We'll see.

But that's the real story. That the Pirates didn't supplement a roster of 22-23 players that is as good as any in the game, not that the Pirates made a mistake over $3K with Cole. Yesterday the Cardinals renewed pitcher Michael Wacha, a close comp to Cole in both service-time and performance, at $539K. Not a word was heard. The Mets renewed Noah Syndergaard at $531,875. Not a mention. The Pirates made a small mistake and Scott Boras pounced, undoubtedly with larger motives at work. With rosters mostly finalized and spring training games not yet underway, everyone was looking for any story to fill the news cycle. They got one. One that focused on a frugal, cheap if you prefer, and foolish decision by the Pirates. Unfortunately the media focused on the wrong Pirates financial story.

Not that they did it on purpose, but I wonder if the Pirates actually prefer it that way?

Part II of My Conversation with Pirates Pitching Coach Ray Searage

Earlier this month I had an extended conversation with Pirates pitching coach Ray Searage and I was finally able to transcribe it over the weekend. Here is Part II. You can listen to the entire conversation here. (Edited for clarity.)

Q: What are the latest reports on Jameson Taillon?

Ray: Everything is going as planned...There are no restrictions on him. We just have to let him go about his business, keep an eye on him and let him get his work in and let him go from there.

Q: I know you don't want to put expectations in fans' minds or in the players' minds. They are going to have to go out at AAA and do the work and prove that they can perform at that level before coming to the major leagues. But, is there a timetable when we can realistically expect to see Jameson or Tyler Glasnow in Pittsburgh in May, June, July?

Ray: I wish I had a crystal ball to answer that question for you. They are going to dictate when they are ready to come up to the major leagues. The ball is in their hands, so to speak, no pun intended. They are the ones that are going to tell us, "Hey this guy is ready for the major leagues," and we'll go from there. We've got to make sure there are some areas that are taken care of. I know they work hard, they are good kids, they are very disciplined in what they do. We'll let what they do during the season and in spring training dictate what might happen after that. 

Q: Ray, what attracted the organization to Ryan Vogelsong and what are you expecting from him this year?

Ray: He's a guy with experience. He's a guy who's been to the World Series. He's had many good years up in the major leagues finding himself out. Last year was just an off year for him. He wants to come back to Pittsburgh and try to put out some fires that he left here. He's got some things to prove. He says Ray, "I've got some more in the tank." And I said, "You know what Ryan, I know you do." So we're looking forward [to it].

You know, I looked at video with all these guys we've gotten. It's not the same thing, it does have value, but it's not the same thing as putting an eyeball on them and watching them and watching the ball come out of their hand and seeing their delivery. It's something that's really exciting for me right now because we have some guys that are going to be really interesting to watch and see how they perform in spring training.

Q: Did you get to see Jon Niese throw when he came over to the minicamp in January?

Ray: At that point in time we were only doing long toss or their throwing program, but we had a nice conversation....He's raring to go....I'm really happy to see him get back into his old form because every time he pitched against us he was a tough son-of-a-gun out there and so we are looking for him to be that guy for us.

Q: Ray, I know you know these numbers, but over the last 4-5 seasons the average team has needed about 10 starters and needed roughly 30-35 starts typically from starters who aren't in the top 5. We know the Pirates looking to 2017, '18, '19 have a nice pipeline of young starting pitchers who, if they develop as hoped, can certainly fill those roles. But there is a level of concern right now to start the season that if someone were to get injured, the team doesn't have starting pitching depth. Is it Juan Nicasio, is it someone else, where would you look for your 6th, 7th, 8th guys to start the season?

Ray: Like you said, the 6th, 7th, 8th guys, you need guys with starting ability. We've got Nicasio, (Kyle) Lobstein, (Wilfredo) Boscon and possibly Glasnow or Taillon to fill a void in for a week or two. You're right every team needs 10-12 starters during the course of the year due to injuries or fatigue or other things. We've got to make sure we have depth and Neal has done a great job of giving us depth. With those guys who are like swingmen, they are going to foot the bill perfectly. And hopefully if that situation does occur at some point in time later on in the season, Glasnow and Taillon can foot that bill, too. You never have enough pitching, but I think we are in a good spot right now, but we're always looking to better ourselves.

Q: You ran into a bad string of injuries in terms of the number with Kingham, Cumpton and Taillon all missing at least a year after Tommy John surgery. I know you, as an organization, spend a lot of time looking at injuries. Is their anything that you have learned or is this still the big unsolved, Tommy John surgery?

Ray: Yes, that's a big X factor. There are so many different things involved in that. It stirs my mind, it's not in my pay grade. These things are going to happen over the course of the year and you try to help these guys prevent or minimize the injuries. Our strength and conditioning staff has done a tremendous job over the years and we will continue to do that. Injuries are a part of the game and they will happen and we just have to be prepared when they do happen. All the new information that we are getting will help us further minimize it, but not completely negate it.

Q: Neftali Feliz is a guy Clint had some experience with down in Texas. What was the attraction and what role do you see him playing with the Pirates?

Ray: Number one we want to make sure he's healthy and gets his work in. Then, he'll dictate what spot he's going to be used in. The whole situation with Feliz is, I think, being hurt and then coming back a little bit too soon and thinking that you still can do what you did before without being 100% healed. You end up forcing stuff and doing things you normally wouldn't do as opposed to letting your instincts and talent take care of it. He's learned from those experiences and he's healthy as far as I know right now. We'll see how it goes. It looks real good and it looks real positive (laughs) and I'm looking forward to seeing some gas come out of that hand.

Q: Speaking of gas, Ray I know your proud of all your guys and you love all your guys, but there must be a special spot for Arquimedes Caminero. You must be proud of the step forward he took last year.

Ray: Big time. He listened. He wasn't a robot, he listened. There were some times we had disagreements, him, myself, the catchers--what to throw and where to throw it. But that's normal, that's good, I want these guys to think. I don't want these guys to be, "Ok, follow Ray, here we go, yo, he, ho" (laughing). No, I don't want that. I want input from them so I can help them and be a better coach for them. With him, the way he performed last year, we got him back on track, and I'm talking about everybody involved, we got him back on track, and then he was even able to go outside that and improve on some things. There were some old teachings from previous organizations that we were able to get past and hopefully we're on the right track and able to keep going.

Part I of My Conversation with Pirates Pitching Coach Ray Searage: His Future, Organizational Pitching Philosophy & Use of Advanced Data

Earlier this month I had an extended conversation with Pirates pitching coach Ray Searage and I was finally able to transcribe it over the weekend. Here is Part I. You can listen to the entire conversation here. (Edited for clarity.)

Q: When a team is successful, other organizations often look to hire their personnel. Jim Benedict is just one who left this offseason.What does the future hold for Ray Searage, being in the last year of your contract?

Ray: I want to retire as a Pirate. In the past Mr. Nutting, Mr. Coonelly, Neal Huntington, they've always taken care of me. I'll let those things work themselves out. My job is to try to bring and to work at bringing a World Series team to the Pittsburgh people and fans and organization.

I just want people to know the pitchers, the players are not there for me, I'm there for them. My heart and my blood is with the Pirates and I would just like to finish my career with them.

Q: Is there an overarching organizational philosophy and approach toward pitching?

Ray: Definitely. We definitely try to make the pitcher, no matter what level he is at, be the best that he can be by staying within himself. Now yes there are some things that are outside the box that we might have to make adjustments with and you take that individually, but collectively and being cohesive throughout the organization there are certain things that we have parameters on, especially in the minor leagues, in order to develop to become a professional ballplayer at the major league level.

There are so many things that are involved and there are so many different niches that each player has, and that's what we have to find out as coaches. And our organizational [goal] is to try to make the pitcher the best he possibly can be by being and staying within himself and not losing himself. When I pitched, I had so many pitching coaches try to help me, but it really hurt me because I ended up losing my own identity. We don't want these kids to lose their identity. Obviously they've got good stuff or they wouldn't have been signed. Now we've got to refine that stuff from the minor leagues and even into the big leagues. You still have to continue to teach in the big leagues. If you assume that all these guys know everything, what they have to do and stuff...no, you have to be there and be like a checklist and that filters all the way down into the minor leagues. That's why are pitching coaches are so good at what they do. They stay within themselves, but help the pitchers stay within themselves also. And on the same page, they also help them develop to become a pro, be a man, be a Pittsburgh Pirate.

Q: Is first and foremost and always will be, fastball command? It's number one and you won't move until you have that sorted out?

Ray: Yes, you have to because everything is going to come off that fastball command. If you can't throw your fastball for strikes and you can throw your offspeed for strikes you aren't really a fastball pitcher. We want to make sure these guys have the fastball command and all the other pitches excel off of that. Sometimes it takes longer than others. Everybody has a different kind of learning skill. We've got to make sure we try to make them improve on that from year-to-year, from game-to-game, from pen-to-pen. It's a very long process and sometimes the guys that are really good and catch it real quick are the guys that just shoot right through the minor leagues and help us here at the big league level.

Q: How much time do you spend looking at analytical data these days?

Ray: In the beginning, I'll tell you Dave, I bucked it. I didn't really like it, because this was something different and I tended to back off and say no, no, no. As we continued to go on through the years here, now I embrace it. Now it is really good stuff, especially the consistency of where the pitches come out of the hand. You can tell the different spots, where the fastball is, where the curveball is, where the change-up is. One of the guys that was the most consistent was A.J. Burnett. He would have an area where he dropped his fastball, his curveball and his change-up all came out the same area. And you looked at another guy, I'm just going to call him Joe Smith right now, and there would be three different areas with the fastball, the change-up and the breaking pitch. We found out the more consistent you could get to that one realize point, with the Trackman, and find these things out, the less time the hitter has to figure out what pitch is coming. And then it all comes down to execution, and I don't want to make that sound trivial, but it comes down to execution of your pitch. If you have a consistent release point on those three pitches it gives you an added advantage.

Q: Do you look at and value things like spin rate, perceived velocity, soft contact, which everyone is trying to achieve, as well?

Ray: Yes, yes. There could be a grip or a minor little tweak in the delivery or the arm slot that could help improve those things. But, we don't try to go hunt that down, it just happens to come out and shock us and say, hey, this is what it is. What we'll try to do is make it a little bit better, but not lose the guy himself. There is a fine line you have to walk, where you work with the improvement, but you also have to know the individual to and whether they are able to do it. More times than not you are going to be successful with it, but your approach has to be the right way or it's not going to work out.

The Latest in Top 100 Prospects Lists, Pirates Edition

This morning ESPN.com's Keith Law was the latest to post his 2016 Top 100 Prospects list. (Insider) Law was a big fan of Pirates 2015 first-round pick Kevin Newman going into the draft, ranking him as his #2 overall prospect. Law is often a lone wolf, a role he clearly relishes, as no one else in the industry rated Newman nearly that high. Newman "slid" to the Pirates at 19. True to form Law ranked Newman #23 on this year's list, his first year eligible. "A no-doubt shortstop with the agility, arm and hands to stay at the position." Law's Top 100 is the only one I've seen that has Newman listed at all. It's worth noting that Law's list is heavy on position players playing up the middle and a full 20 of the 100 are currently shortstops.

Other Pirates on Law's list include Tyler Glasnow #6 (20th in 2014 & 13th in 2015) "his long-term upside is rare," Austin Meadows #16 (35 in 2014 and 32nd in 2015) "if he does hit for the power that he's physically capable of producing he'll be a star," and Josh Bell #56 (90th in 2014 & 60th in 21015) "a natural hitter with superlative hand-eye coordination and a disciplined approach." The most-notable omissions are pitcher Jameson Taillon (27th in 2014 & 36th in 2015) who has missed the past two seasons due to injury and infielder Alen Hanson (74th in 2014 & 89th in 2015).

Baseball Prospectus recently posted its Top 100 list which includes six Pirates: Glasnow #11, Meadows #22, Bell #49, Taillon #51, catcher Reese McGuire #76 and outfielder Harold Ramirez #80.

MLB.com's list included five Pirates: Glasnow #10, Meadows #20, Bell #49, Taillon #54, and McGuire #98.

Earlier this week I had Jim Callis, one of the authors of MLB.com's list as a guest on my show. Among other things we discussed the outlook for Taillon, Meadows' ceiling vs. that of Starling Marte (he thinks Meadows' ceiling is higher), and whether Elias Diaz can be an everyday catcher in the majors. You can hear the entire conversation here. Check it out.

The Pirates Wild Card Roster: Hurdle Buys the Whole Life Insurance Policy

On Monday I opined on the Pirates Wild Card Game roster. Having taken a look at what Clint Hurdle did in 2013 and 2014 I assumed he would again go with 16 position players and 9 pitchers. He did. But there were two differences in what I projected Clint would do and what he actually did.

The two guys I projected to be on the 25-man roster who aren't are left-handed hitting outfielder Jaff Decker and left-handed reliever Bobby LaFromboise. In their stead Hurdle chose to carry pitcher Francisco Liriano and catcher Elias Diaz. I understand the choice of Liriano, he's rostered in case Gerrit Cole strains a lat or turns an ankle in the first three innings or the game goes more than 12. Ok, I can buy that. A little bit of insurance, that almost assuredly won't be used.

I don't understand carrying Diaz. The guy has played three major league innings. In his career. While Liriano is around in case one specific player, Cole, gets injured early or the game goes deep, Diaz is around in case two guys are injured. The Pirates haven't had to use an emergency catcher all year. I don't see Clint pulling Francisco Cervelli for a pinch-runner early in this game and I don't see him using Chris Stewart as a pinch-hitter in the first nine innings with so many other options. Clint is going to save Stewart because he absolutely won't want to use Diaz. So they are basically playing with a 24-man roster with Diaz as the ultimate insurance policy.

Does it matter? Probably not. The Pirates have a deep bullpen, added bench guys and Clint did roster the guy who I think could make a big difference as a pinch-runner, Keon Broxton.

But, in dropping Decker, the Pirates will only have one left-handed bat on the bench, Travis Snider, (although Pedro Florimon is a switch-hitter.) And in not rostering LaFromboise, they will only have two lefties against a Cubs lineup that features some great lefty bats. Broxton is a pinch-runner and Florimon basically is as well, (while also providing insurance for Mercer at short.) Those two guys could make a difference as I've pointed out, as the last 19 or 20 base stealers have been successful against Jake Arrieta. But Clint did go conservative with the roster. As is the goal with most insurance policies, Pirates fans should hope this one is never discussed again.

The Pirates 2015 Wild Card Roster and Why Keon Broxton Could be the Difference

Three years in a row. The Pirates reward for the second-best record in baseball is hosting a one-game playoff at PNC Park for the third year in a row. They now get the privilege of going up against the guy who just posted the best second half anyone has ever seen. So how should Clint Hurdle align his roster to give the Bucs the best chance to beat Jake Arrieta and the Cubs? Let's look back and see what Hurdle did in 2013 and 2014 when faced with similar scenarios.

Both games Hurdle carried 16 position players and 9 pitchers. And in each case, versus Dusty Baker and the Reds in '13 and Bruce Bochy and the Giants in '14, the opposing manager opted to go with 15 position players and 10 pitchers. I think 16 position players is still the way to go. Here's how it should look.

Position Players:

Catchers: (2) Francisco Cervell, Chris Stewart

Each of the past two years Hurdle elected to carry three catchers and you can probably win a few cold ones at the local knowing that Tony Sanchez was that guy both games. Sanchez did start 2015 on the Opening Day roster due Chris Stewart's injury, but he only played 3 games, got just 9 at bats and his time in the Pirates organization is probably weeks away from being over. The Pirates did carry a third catcher in September when rosters expanded, promoting Elias Diaz, but he played a grand total of three innings which now accounts for his entire major league resume. I think it is safe to say that Hurdle won't be carrying three catchers this year.

Infielders: (8) Pedro Alvarez, Pedro Florimon, Josh Harrison, Jordy Mercer, Michael Morse, Aramis Ramirez, Sean Rodriguez, Neil Walker

The big question for Hurdle is what his starting infield will look like. Neil Walker will get the start at second and Jordy Mercer will be at short. The question is who of Alvarez, Harrison and Ramirez sits. Two weeks ago it probably would have been Harrison, but he finished the season on a tear posting a .375/.419/.575 line in his last 40 at bats. Hurdle has been known to play the hot-hand and he had Harrison in the lineup for the last two games of the regular season, which were both meaningful. Alvarez sat against a lefty on Saturday while Ramirez sat against a righty on Sunday. Ramirez finished cold going 2-for-his-last-20. The other bench guys are easy choices. Rodriguez brings defensive value, Morse is a big right-handed bat and Florimon is the only other shortstop on the roster with Jung Ho Kang injured.

Outfielders: (6) Keon Broxton, Jaff Decker, Starling Marte, Andrew McCutchen, Gregory Polanco, Travis Snider

After the starters, and no, I don't think there is any chance Polanco sits in favor of Harrison in right, Snider and Decker are left-handed bats with Decker being the better defensive outfielder. And the 16th guy is Keon Broxton. He could be the difference in this game. Believe it or not Jake Arrieta does have a weakness. 19 of the last 20 would-be base stealers against Arrieta have been successful. With so many position players available off the bench, Clint Hurdle should look for an opportunity, maybe as early as the 4th inning, to have Broxton pinch-run against Arrieta. He has to be on the roster.

Pitchers:

Starter: (1) Gerrit Cole

Bullpen: (8) Joe Blanton, Antonio Bastardo, Arquimedes Caminero, Jared Hughes, Bobby LaFromboise, Mark Melancon, Joakim Soria, Tony Watson

This is pretty straightforward. The only choice is Bobby LaFromboise as a third lefty or Vance Worley as a long-man. LaFromboise only pitched 8 innings this year but he was generally effective giving up just 5 hits, 1 walk and striking out 8. With Blanton, Caminero and Hughes all able to go multiple innings I'd rather have LaFromboise as a situational lefty, if needed.