There is nothing similar about Pirates' relievers Mark Melancon and Tony Watson. Melancon is the righty who throws a cutter and a curve. The cutter sits 90-92 mph and the curve 80-82. The lefty Watson brings a fastball-change mix, getting about 10-mph separation between his 94-95 mph fastball and 85-86 mph change.
There was real concern about Melancon early in the season as his velocity was down, but that seemed to return mid-late May and he's been dominant since. Watson gave up a 3-run homer on Opening Day and then gave up one run in his next 25 appearances. Together they have formed a formidable duo at the back end of an excellent Pirates bullpen.
There is no confusing Melancon and Watson on the mound, but let's see if you can separate them by the numbers.
Let's start with appearances:
Games Innings
Pitcher A 64 63.0
Pitcher B 63 61.0
Ok, nothing to be gleaned from that. Some more data:
Hits Runs ER HR UIBB HBP WP WHIP BABip
Pitcher A 50 15 12 3 10 2 3 0.984 .258
Pitcher B 45 15 14 3 11 4 1 0.918 .256
Still nothing here to differentiate the two. How about opponents' triple slash line?
Pitcher A .220/.264/.295 .560 OPS
Pitcher B .206/.255/.271 .526 OPS
I'm not sure Ray Searage can tell them apart at this point. ERA, FIP & xFIP ought to clear it up, right?
ERA FIP xFIP
Pitcher A 1.71 3.01 3.29
Pitcher B 2.07 2.73 3.21
Blown Saves?
Pitcher A 2
Pitcher B 2
Here is your big clue. Time to guess:
GB% SO
Pitcher A 59.3 44
Pitcher B 47.6 54
Yep, I figured that would do it. If it didn't, pitcher A has 43 saves, pitcher B has 1. But you tell me who is better.
Monday, August 31, 2015
Sunday, August 30, 2015
My conversation with Pirates GM Neal Huntington a.k.a. Rumpelstiltskin
Friday afternoon I had an extended conversation with Pirates GM Neal Huntington. Among other things we discussed the trade deadline and the acquisition of J.A. Happ, team chemistry, lineup protection, the future of Michael Morse, Pedro Alvarez and Neil Walker, Cutch's bat speed, Kang's all-field power, Polanco's development and September call-ups.
Neal had an extended answer to my question about lineup protection when we spoke Friday. When I spoke to manager Clint Hurdle on Saturday and asked him the same question, he was more succinct, "No."
Saturday, August 29, 2015
A quick look at Andrew McCutchen and his 100-game run
On May 5th Andrew McCutchen went 0-for-4 in a 7-1 loss to the Cincinnati Reds. The next day Cutch lined an eighth inning single to center field off Reds starter Mike Leake to break an 0-for-13 string. He was quickly erased when Starling Marte grounded into a 6-4-3 double play as the Reds shutout the Bucs 3-0, dropping their record to 12-15. But looking back, that line drive was the demarcating point in Andrew McCutchen's, and the Pirates', season. Cutch finished the day with a triple slash line of .188/.279/.292 and an OPS of .571 in 111 plate appearances.
In 427 PAs since then McCutchen has been as good as anyone in the game. He's posted a line of .335/.438/.585, 1.023 OPS 18 homers and 72 RBI. The Pirates have gone 66-34.
McCutchen rate stats are now almost exactly in line with his numbers over the past three seasons, a model of consistency:
AVG OBP SLG OPS OPS+
2012 .327 .400 .553 .953 162
2013 .317 .404 .508 .911 157
2014 .314 .410 .542 .952 166
2015 .304 .405 .522 .928 154
And if he keeps up his torrid August and carries that thru September, Cutch has a chance to put up some of the best counting numbers of his career. Cutch by month:
AVG OBP SLG OPS
Apr .194 .302 .333 .636
May .330 .419 .566 .985
Jun .337 .422 .511 .933
Jul .287 .382 .532 .914
Aug .345 .477 .631 1.108
The last three seasons McCutchen has had 673, 674 and 678 plate appearances. With 35 games to go he's got 538 and should fall right in line with the three previous years. The last three years he's finished in the top three in the MVP voting. A solid month should put him right there for a fourth. And a big one just might get him his second trophy.
In 427 PAs since then McCutchen has been as good as anyone in the game. He's posted a line of .335/.438/.585, 1.023 OPS 18 homers and 72 RBI. The Pirates have gone 66-34.
McCutchen rate stats are now almost exactly in line with his numbers over the past three seasons, a model of consistency:
AVG OBP SLG OPS OPS+
2012 .327 .400 .553 .953 162
2013 .317 .404 .508 .911 157
2014 .314 .410 .542 .952 166
2015 .304 .405 .522 .928 154
And if he keeps up his torrid August and carries that thru September, Cutch has a chance to put up some of the best counting numbers of his career. Cutch by month:
AVG OBP SLG OPS
Apr .194 .302 .333 .636
May .330 .419 .566 .985
Jun .337 .422 .511 .933
Jul .287 .382 .532 .914
Aug .345 .477 .631 1.108
The last three seasons McCutchen has had 673, 674 and 678 plate appearances. With 35 games to go he's got 538 and should fall right in line with the three previous years. The last three years he's finished in the top three in the MVP voting. A solid month should put him right there for a fourth. And a big one just might get him his second trophy.
Wednesday, August 26, 2015
My conversations with Jumpin' Joe Sheehan, Charlie Wilmoth and J.A. Happ
If you are a hardcore baseball fan, and I imagine if you found your way to this blog you at least register somewhere on the scale, you should subscribe to the Joe Sheehan Newsletter. Straight up, it's not for everyone. If you are a one-team fan, it's probably not for you. But if you like thinking about the game at a deeper level and enjoy insightful and entertaining reading about the game, I highly recommend subscribing. Joe and I look at the game through the same lens, but we don't always see eye-to-eye, which is one of the many reasons I love having him as a guest. We had another enjoyable, at least for me, chat yesterday.
Charlie Wilmoth has been the long-time editor of BucsDugout.com. There isn't a better Pirates-community blog around and Charlie does an awesome job of writing and managing the site. We had a chance to talk Pirates on Monday.
J.A. Happ had another scoreless outing on Monday. Tuesday I talked to him about the trade, the Pirates clubhouse, working with Ray and Clint, pitch selection and his new catchers.
Charlie Wilmoth has been the long-time editor of BucsDugout.com. There isn't a better Pirates-community blog around and Charlie does an awesome job of writing and managing the site. We had a chance to talk Pirates on Monday.
J.A. Happ had another scoreless outing on Monday. Tuesday I talked to him about the trade, the Pirates clubhouse, working with Ray and Clint, pitch selection and his new catchers.
Monday, August 24, 2015
A look back at the Pirates fantastic 18-game run
Last night the Pirates completed an 18-game stretch that I had called the most interesting stretch of games over the past 20 years. In reality it may have been the most interesting stretch in my 45 years following the team. They went 13-5 playing the the three division leaders and the three teams with the next best records in the NL. It all started with a pitching matchup between Francisco Liriano and Jon Lester that got rained out. The Pirates entered the Aug 4th matchup 5.5 games back of the Cardinals and 4 ahead of the Cubs. Here is what followed:
Game 1: Tuesday Aug 4, Pirates lose 5-0 to Cubs at PNC Park (0-1)
Things didn't start auspiciously. J.A. Happ made his Pirates debut and didn't make it through five. Jake Arrieta dominated the Pirates for seven innings. This is the guy the Pirates don't want to face in the wild card game. In three starts against the Bucs: 21 IP, 11 H, 2 R, 4 BB, 19 K 0.86 ERA 0.714 WHIP.
Game 2: Wednesday Aug 5, Pirates defeat Cubs 7-5 at PNC Park (1-1)
The Bucs jumped ahead early on a Polanco HR. Jeff Locke cruised through five, but imploded in the sixth giving up two homers that left things tied at 4. The Pirates countered with two in the bottom of the sixth and the bullpen made it stand up. It was notable that Mark Melancon gave up an earned run for the first time 34 appearances, dating back to May 11.
Game 3: Friday Aug 7, Pirates defeat Dodgers 5-4 in 10 at PNC Park (2-1)
The Clayton Kershaw-Gerrit Cole matchup that didn't live up to the hype. Polanco opened the game with a first-pitch home run that broke a 37-inning Kershaw scoreless streak. Both pitchers only went six innings with Kershaw giving up four runs and Cole giving up three. The Bucs won in the 10th on an Alvarez single to right that scored Kang.
Game 4: Saturday Aug 8, Pirates defeat Dodgers 6-5 at PNC Park (3-1)
This one, 6-4 after three, was highlighted by Francisco Liriano's first-ever extra base hit. It just happened to be a 3-run homer down the left field line off Mat Latos. The bullpen saved the day as Liriano only went three. This marked the start of an incredibly impressive run by Joe Blanton as he went three scoreless and got the win.
Game 5: Sunday Aug 9, Pirates defeat Dodgers 13-6 at PNC Park (4-1)
In a nationally-televised game on ESPN's Sunday Night Baseball, Charlie Morton continued the run of poor outings by Pirates starters giving up 10 hits and 5 runs in five innings and left down 5-1. Andrew McCutchen hit one of three Pirates homers to make it 5-3 in the bottom of the fifth and then the Bucs scored 9 runs in the seventh, their most in any inning this year, and rolled to victory. Arquimedes Caminero began his own impressive run in this one going two scoreless for the win.
Game 6: Tuesday Aug 11, Pirates lose to Cards 4-3 at Busch Stadium III (4-2)
The start of a huge three game series with the division leaders saw some bad baseball by the Bucs. Leading 3-1 in the fifth Jeff Locke walked the first two batters. When the dust settled the Pirates were down 4-3 and that's how it would end as the Bucs went 2-for-9 with RISP. The Pirates fourth straight one-run loss in St. Louis left them six back of the Cards.
Game 7: Wednesday Aug 12, Pirates lose to Cards 4-2 at Busch Stadium III (4-3)
The Pirates horrible infield defense caught up with them in this one as Walker and Kang both made errors and Ramirez and Alvarez both should have been in the books as well. Cutch hit a 2-run homer briefly tying the game at 2, but Gerrit Cole got knocked out in the sixth after giving up 4 runs, 3 earned. The Pirates continued their untimely hitting going 0-for-10 with RISP.
Game 8: Thursday Aug 13, Pirates defeat Cards 10-5 at Busch Stadium III (5-3)
The Pirates finally broke through in St. Louis and they did it early and in a big way. They put up 7 in the first inning against Lance Lynn, highlighted by a 2-run bomb by Pedro Alvarez who always seems to hit best against the Redbirds. Liriano struggled early but got through six and got the first win by a Pirates starter in this stretch. The Pirates left St. Louis six back of the Cards.
Game 9: Friday Aug 14, Pirates defeat Mets 3-2 in 10 at Citifield (6-3)
J.A. Happ made the start after nine days off and being skipped the last time through the rotation. He struck out seven in 5.1 innings and a Polanco RBI single and Ramirez sac fly in the 10th gave Mark Melancon the cushion he needed as the bullpen got another win.
Game 10: Saturday Aug 15, Pirates defeat Mets 5-3 in 14 at Citifield (7-3)
The Pirates jumped out to a 3-0 lead and Charlie Morton cruised through 6. But just like Locke a week earlier, things imploded in just four batters in the 7th. A homer, strikeout, error by Ramirez, another homer and it was 3-3. Despite nine Ks, only four hits and a walk Morton left with a no-decision. The bullpen did the job going 7.2 scoreless highlighted by Blanton going 3 and striking out 6. Cervelli, Stewart and Rodriguez got hits in the 14th and the Bucs got another extra-inning win.
Game 11: Sunday Aug 16, Pirates defeat Mets 8-1 at Citifield (8-3)
The Jeff Locke-Matt Harvey matchup didn't favor the Pirates. The Pirates got one off the big righty on a second inning Alvarez homer and Jeff Locke managed to get through 5.1 before a rain delay stopped play. When things started back up Harvey was done and so were the Mets. Some terrible defense contributed to the Bucs scoring 7 runs in the seventh and eighth. Caminero got another win as the bullpen continued its great run going 3.2 scoreless.
Game 12: Monday Aug 17, Pirates lose 4-1 to Diamondbacks at PNC Park (8-4)
The Pirates were never in this one as Gerrit Cole was hit hard, giving up 3 runs in the first two innings. The Pirates went 1-for-9 with RISP and squandering chances in the sixth, seventh and eighth. The lone bright spot was a fifth inning Alvarez homer.
Game 13: Tuesday Aug 18, Pirates defeat Diamondbacks 9-8 in 15 at PNC Park (9-4)
This one looked to be a laugher as the Pirates took an 8-3 lead into the 8th. Liriano had been cruising, but the first two batters got on and the inning ended 8-6. The defense let Mark Melancon down in the 9th as errors by Kang and Rodriguez led to two unearned runs tying it at 8. Blanton and Caminero continued their shutdown ways, each going three scoreless and the Bucs plated one in the 15th on a Pedro Florimon walk-off triple.
Game 14: Wednesday Aug 19, Pirates defeat Diamondbacks 4-1 at PNC Park (10-4)
A Pirates starter gets just the second win during this stretch as J.A. Happ is superb through six giving up 2 hits and 0 runs. A 3-run second is more than enough and Melancon throws a filthy 9th, striking out the side.
Game 15: Thursday Aug 20, Pirates defeat Giants 4-0 at PNC Park (11-4)
Another great starting pitching effort, this time by Charlie Morton, 6.2 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 8K. Jared Hughes came in and got the final out of the 7th with the bases loaded. A 2-run HR by Neil Walker gave the bullpen some insurance.
Game 16: Friday Aug 21, Pirates lose 6-4 to Giants at PNC Park (11-5)
Madison Bumgarner made his return to the scene of the crime, having beaten the Pirates 8-0 in the 2014 wild card game at PNC. Another tough matchup for Jeff Locke and he wasn't up to the task giving up 11 hits and 6 runs in 5 innings. Bumgarner wasn't sharp but that was enough. Josh Harrison made his return from the DL.
Game 17: Saturday Aug 22, Pirates defeat Giants 3-2 at PNC Park (12-5)
Kang! Kang! Marte!. Three solo homers including a Marte walkoff in the 9th led the Pirates to victory. Gerrit Cole had his best outing in a month giving up just one unearned run and Melancon set the stage for victory with a six-pitch 9th. Kang was the star, but Marte also saved a homer in the second, robbing Cole's future brother-in-law Brandon Crawford.
Game 18: Sunday Aug 23, Pirates defeat Giants 5-2 at PNC Park (13-5)
A 3-run first set the stage and homers by Cutch and Pedro completed the scoring. Liriano went 5.1 innings without giving up a run and the bullpen continued its magic. Alvarez committed two more errors and Walker added another as the Pirates infield defense continues to be a concern. Jordy Mercer returned from the DL and was a late-inning defensive replacement.
Recap:
The Pirates finish this stretch 13-5, .722%, scoring 92 runs and giving up 67. They gained two games on the Cards despite going 1-2 head-to-head. They actually lost a game to the Cubs who went 14-4, .778%. The starters went just 3-5 in this stretch, the bullpen 10-0.
Offensive Highlights:
Cutch .333/.468/.633 1.102 OPS, with 4 HR 13 RBI 16 BB 16 K (started 17/18)
Alvarez .360/.365/.700 1.065, with 5 HR 13 RBI 1 BB 17 K (started 13/18)
Kang .273/.351/.500 .851 OPS, with 4 HR 11 RBI 5 BB 15 K (started 17/18)
Cervelli .923 OPS
Polanco .903
Marte .896
Walker .798
Ramirez .744
Pitching Highlights:
Blanton 6 G 13.1 IP 9 H 0 R 5 BB 18 K 0.00 ERA 3-0 W-L
Caminero 9 G 12.2 IP 8 H 0 R 4 BB 14 K 0.00 ERA 3-0 W-L
Game 1: Tuesday Aug 4, Pirates lose 5-0 to Cubs at PNC Park (0-1)
Things didn't start auspiciously. J.A. Happ made his Pirates debut and didn't make it through five. Jake Arrieta dominated the Pirates for seven innings. This is the guy the Pirates don't want to face in the wild card game. In three starts against the Bucs: 21 IP, 11 H, 2 R, 4 BB, 19 K 0.86 ERA 0.714 WHIP.
Game 2: Wednesday Aug 5, Pirates defeat Cubs 7-5 at PNC Park (1-1)
The Bucs jumped ahead early on a Polanco HR. Jeff Locke cruised through five, but imploded in the sixth giving up two homers that left things tied at 4. The Pirates countered with two in the bottom of the sixth and the bullpen made it stand up. It was notable that Mark Melancon gave up an earned run for the first time 34 appearances, dating back to May 11.
Game 3: Friday Aug 7, Pirates defeat Dodgers 5-4 in 10 at PNC Park (2-1)
The Clayton Kershaw-Gerrit Cole matchup that didn't live up to the hype. Polanco opened the game with a first-pitch home run that broke a 37-inning Kershaw scoreless streak. Both pitchers only went six innings with Kershaw giving up four runs and Cole giving up three. The Bucs won in the 10th on an Alvarez single to right that scored Kang.
Game 4: Saturday Aug 8, Pirates defeat Dodgers 6-5 at PNC Park (3-1)
This one, 6-4 after three, was highlighted by Francisco Liriano's first-ever extra base hit. It just happened to be a 3-run homer down the left field line off Mat Latos. The bullpen saved the day as Liriano only went three. This marked the start of an incredibly impressive run by Joe Blanton as he went three scoreless and got the win.
Game 5: Sunday Aug 9, Pirates defeat Dodgers 13-6 at PNC Park (4-1)
In a nationally-televised game on ESPN's Sunday Night Baseball, Charlie Morton continued the run of poor outings by Pirates starters giving up 10 hits and 5 runs in five innings and left down 5-1. Andrew McCutchen hit one of three Pirates homers to make it 5-3 in the bottom of the fifth and then the Bucs scored 9 runs in the seventh, their most in any inning this year, and rolled to victory. Arquimedes Caminero began his own impressive run in this one going two scoreless for the win.
Game 6: Tuesday Aug 11, Pirates lose to Cards 4-3 at Busch Stadium III (4-2)
The start of a huge three game series with the division leaders saw some bad baseball by the Bucs. Leading 3-1 in the fifth Jeff Locke walked the first two batters. When the dust settled the Pirates were down 4-3 and that's how it would end as the Bucs went 2-for-9 with RISP. The Pirates fourth straight one-run loss in St. Louis left them six back of the Cards.
Game 7: Wednesday Aug 12, Pirates lose to Cards 4-2 at Busch Stadium III (4-3)
The Pirates horrible infield defense caught up with them in this one as Walker and Kang both made errors and Ramirez and Alvarez both should have been in the books as well. Cutch hit a 2-run homer briefly tying the game at 2, but Gerrit Cole got knocked out in the sixth after giving up 4 runs, 3 earned. The Pirates continued their untimely hitting going 0-for-10 with RISP.
Game 8: Thursday Aug 13, Pirates defeat Cards 10-5 at Busch Stadium III (5-3)
The Pirates finally broke through in St. Louis and they did it early and in a big way. They put up 7 in the first inning against Lance Lynn, highlighted by a 2-run bomb by Pedro Alvarez who always seems to hit best against the Redbirds. Liriano struggled early but got through six and got the first win by a Pirates starter in this stretch. The Pirates left St. Louis six back of the Cards.
Game 9: Friday Aug 14, Pirates defeat Mets 3-2 in 10 at Citifield (6-3)
J.A. Happ made the start after nine days off and being skipped the last time through the rotation. He struck out seven in 5.1 innings and a Polanco RBI single and Ramirez sac fly in the 10th gave Mark Melancon the cushion he needed as the bullpen got another win.
Game 10: Saturday Aug 15, Pirates defeat Mets 5-3 in 14 at Citifield (7-3)
The Pirates jumped out to a 3-0 lead and Charlie Morton cruised through 6. But just like Locke a week earlier, things imploded in just four batters in the 7th. A homer, strikeout, error by Ramirez, another homer and it was 3-3. Despite nine Ks, only four hits and a walk Morton left with a no-decision. The bullpen did the job going 7.2 scoreless highlighted by Blanton going 3 and striking out 6. Cervelli, Stewart and Rodriguez got hits in the 14th and the Bucs got another extra-inning win.
Game 11: Sunday Aug 16, Pirates defeat Mets 8-1 at Citifield (8-3)
The Jeff Locke-Matt Harvey matchup didn't favor the Pirates. The Pirates got one off the big righty on a second inning Alvarez homer and Jeff Locke managed to get through 5.1 before a rain delay stopped play. When things started back up Harvey was done and so were the Mets. Some terrible defense contributed to the Bucs scoring 7 runs in the seventh and eighth. Caminero got another win as the bullpen continued its great run going 3.2 scoreless.
Game 12: Monday Aug 17, Pirates lose 4-1 to Diamondbacks at PNC Park (8-4)
The Pirates were never in this one as Gerrit Cole was hit hard, giving up 3 runs in the first two innings. The Pirates went 1-for-9 with RISP and squandering chances in the sixth, seventh and eighth. The lone bright spot was a fifth inning Alvarez homer.
Game 13: Tuesday Aug 18, Pirates defeat Diamondbacks 9-8 in 15 at PNC Park (9-4)
This one looked to be a laugher as the Pirates took an 8-3 lead into the 8th. Liriano had been cruising, but the first two batters got on and the inning ended 8-6. The defense let Mark Melancon down in the 9th as errors by Kang and Rodriguez led to two unearned runs tying it at 8. Blanton and Caminero continued their shutdown ways, each going three scoreless and the Bucs plated one in the 15th on a Pedro Florimon walk-off triple.
Game 14: Wednesday Aug 19, Pirates defeat Diamondbacks 4-1 at PNC Park (10-4)
A Pirates starter gets just the second win during this stretch as J.A. Happ is superb through six giving up 2 hits and 0 runs. A 3-run second is more than enough and Melancon throws a filthy 9th, striking out the side.
Game 15: Thursday Aug 20, Pirates defeat Giants 4-0 at PNC Park (11-4)
Another great starting pitching effort, this time by Charlie Morton, 6.2 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 8K. Jared Hughes came in and got the final out of the 7th with the bases loaded. A 2-run HR by Neil Walker gave the bullpen some insurance.
Game 16: Friday Aug 21, Pirates lose 6-4 to Giants at PNC Park (11-5)
Madison Bumgarner made his return to the scene of the crime, having beaten the Pirates 8-0 in the 2014 wild card game at PNC. Another tough matchup for Jeff Locke and he wasn't up to the task giving up 11 hits and 6 runs in 5 innings. Bumgarner wasn't sharp but that was enough. Josh Harrison made his return from the DL.
Game 17: Saturday Aug 22, Pirates defeat Giants 3-2 at PNC Park (12-5)
Kang! Kang! Marte!. Three solo homers including a Marte walkoff in the 9th led the Pirates to victory. Gerrit Cole had his best outing in a month giving up just one unearned run and Melancon set the stage for victory with a six-pitch 9th. Kang was the star, but Marte also saved a homer in the second, robbing Cole's future brother-in-law Brandon Crawford.
Game 18: Sunday Aug 23, Pirates defeat Giants 5-2 at PNC Park (13-5)
A 3-run first set the stage and homers by Cutch and Pedro completed the scoring. Liriano went 5.1 innings without giving up a run and the bullpen continued its magic. Alvarez committed two more errors and Walker added another as the Pirates infield defense continues to be a concern. Jordy Mercer returned from the DL and was a late-inning defensive replacement.
Recap:
The Pirates finish this stretch 13-5, .722%, scoring 92 runs and giving up 67. They gained two games on the Cards despite going 1-2 head-to-head. They actually lost a game to the Cubs who went 14-4, .778%. The starters went just 3-5 in this stretch, the bullpen 10-0.
Offensive Highlights:
Cutch .333/.468/.633 1.102 OPS, with 4 HR 13 RBI 16 BB 16 K (started 17/18)
Alvarez .360/.365/.700 1.065, with 5 HR 13 RBI 1 BB 17 K (started 13/18)
Kang .273/.351/.500 .851 OPS, with 4 HR 11 RBI 5 BB 15 K (started 17/18)
Cervelli .923 OPS
Polanco .903
Marte .896
Walker .798
Ramirez .744
Pitching Highlights:
Blanton 6 G 13.1 IP 9 H 0 R 5 BB 18 K 0.00 ERA 3-0 W-L
Caminero 9 G 12.2 IP 8 H 0 R 4 BB 14 K 0.00 ERA 3-0 W-L
Sunday, August 23, 2015
The Great Pirates Infield Debate
Clint Hurdle is about to be confronted with a problem he's never encountered during his tenure as Pirates manager, too many starters, not enough spots. The Pirates left spring training with a clear starting eight and a bench that seemed stronger than in years past. After a slow start, the Bucs started to stack wins around the middle of May. And, after a slow start, offseason acquisition Jung Ho Kang started being a fixture in the Pirates lineup. Kang recorded his first career three-hit game in his last April start, then started 21 out of 28 games in May. With Kang's emergence the Bucs really had nine "everyday" position players for eight spots.
This was easily managed. Between the Pirates strategy of regularly resting players and playing platoon splits, Hurdle could get all nine regular playing time. Then, in early July third baseman Josh Harrison was lost to a hand injury and two weeks later Jordy Mercer followed him to DL with a sprained knee. That left the Pirates short an infielder. July 23 Neal Huntington acquired 37-year old Aramis Ramirez from the Cubs to fill the void at 3rd and Kang settled in as the everyday shortstop.
So, here we are a month later. Josh Harrison was activated from the DL Friday and Jordy Mercer was activated today. Now rather than nine everyday players, the Pirates have 10. How should Clint Hurdle manage playing time over the last six weeks of the season? Let's look at the pros and cons for each player and my expectations for playing time.
Jung Ho Kang:
Pro: Kang, one of the biggest surprises in MLB this season and a legitimate contender for NL Rookie of the Year, is going to get the most consistent playing time of the group. Clint is going to write his name on the lineup card every day. He's hitting .290/.363/.464 with an OPS+ of 127, second on the team to only Andrew McCutchen. He had the first 2-homer game of his Pirates career Saturday and has homered five times in August. Kang has also shown a great baseball IQ in his rookie season. He's probably the team's second best baserunner, behind Pedro, and is an excellent defensive third baseman with solid reactions and a very strong arm.
Con: There isn't much con for Kang. He is passable defensively at shortstop, but not much more. He lacks lateral agility and range. He certainly filled-in admirably, but long-term he is going to be the team's everyday third baseman.
Prediction: With 42 games left in the season, Kang will get a day off here and there, but he'll be a fixture in the lineup. My guess is that he will be at third more often than short.
Neil Walker:
Pro: Walker is having a very typical Neal Walker-season. It falls right in-line with every other year of his career, with last year being a slight outlier to the upside. If he plays more than 25 of the last 42 games it will be the second most in his career. Walker has been at his best in July and August with an OPS over .800 each month.
(Some other interesting statistical notes to Walker's season, batting 2nd he has an OPS over .800. Batting 4th or 6th, his other most frequent spots, he has an OPS below .700. Surprisingly, Walker has been much better on the road, .805 OPS, than at PNC, .707 OPS (in his career it's virtually identical, .766 vs. .773). And the Bucs go as Neil goes. In wins, 294 PAs, he has an .894 OPS. In losses, 178 PAs, it's .525.)
Con: Neil can't hit lefties. He has a .577 OPS this year which is below his .658 career number. For a point of reference Sean Rodriguez has a .586 OPS this year. Walker is also now a below-average defensive second baseman. He is still great making the turn, but his range is limited.
Prediction: Walker is still the Pirates best option at second against RHP, which is what they will face most-often the rest of the way. But he should be used in a straight platoon with Harrison starting against lefties. Neil will probably start 3 out of every 4 remaining games.
Josh Harrison:
Pro: Harrison is an easy-to-root-for, high-energy guy who can play a variety of positions.
Con: JHay is probably the Pirates most-polarizing player and it largely depends whether you believe he is the player who finished 9th in the MVP voting last year or the one he has been the rest of his career. He has not had a good season to-date. He has an OPS+ of 89 and his numbers, particularly slugging, are well below last year's. Harrison also has been surprisingly bad defensively at third. I think he's a pretty good fielder so I'm not overly concerned, but it is worth noting.
Prediction: Harrison is going to go back to the super-utility role he had most of last season. I actually don't see him getting more than a handful of starts at third because that is Kang's best position and it is the only one Ramirez can play. I assume Harrison will get 3-4 starts a week, but not more than that.
Jordy Mercer:
Pro: Jordy is the Pirates best defensive infielder. With Mercer at short and Kang at third the Pirates would immediately upgrade an infield defense that has gone from bad to atrocious the past two months.
Con: Mercer was an offensive black hole the first two months of the season but did post an OPS of .800 in 101 PAs in June before cooling off a bit and getting injured in July.
Prediction: I know it isn't going to be wildly popular, particularly if he doesn't hit right away, but I think Mercer is going to return to being the Pirates regular shortstop, getting 4-5 starts a week. Run prevention counts just as much as runs scored and with a staff that leads MLB in ground ball rate I think Clint is going to want Jordy's glove out there on a regular basis, which also upgrades third base by having Kang play there.
Aramis Ramirez:
Pro: Ramirez couldn't be a better teammate thus far. He has said all the right things. He's been willing to do some pregame work at first. He's said if he's is demoted to a bench role, he will accept it. He has said he just wants to contribute in any way to help the Pirates succeed in their goal of winning a World Series. A+
Con: Ramirez has not been good this year or in his short stint with the Pirates. In 97 PAs he has a .630 OPS. He's hit one HR after hitting 11 in 302 PAs with the Brewers. He's only walked three times and he has an OBP of .278. Oh, and his defense has been terrible. He has zero range.
Prediction: Right-handed bench bat. That's what he should be and that's what he's going to be. I'll be shocked if Ramirez makes 15 more starts this season and won't be at all surprised if it's less than 10. But he will be a nice upgrade to the bench.
Conclusion: With everyone now healthy, I think you will see the Pirates return to the nine guys for eight spots roster management that we saw the first half of the season. It will be a little different in that Jung Ho Kang and Gregory Polanco will be in the lineup almost every night and that will cost Walker, Harrison and Mercer some playing time. Aramis Ramirez is going to be the odd man out.
Con: There isn't much con for Kang. He is passable defensively at shortstop, but not much more. He lacks lateral agility and range. He certainly filled-in admirably, but long-term he is going to be the team's everyday third baseman.
Prediction: With 42 games left in the season, Kang will get a day off here and there, but he'll be a fixture in the lineup. My guess is that he will be at third more often than short.
Neil Walker:
Pro: Walker is having a very typical Neal Walker-season. It falls right in-line with every other year of his career, with last year being a slight outlier to the upside. If he plays more than 25 of the last 42 games it will be the second most in his career. Walker has been at his best in July and August with an OPS over .800 each month.
(Some other interesting statistical notes to Walker's season, batting 2nd he has an OPS over .800. Batting 4th or 6th, his other most frequent spots, he has an OPS below .700. Surprisingly, Walker has been much better on the road, .805 OPS, than at PNC, .707 OPS (in his career it's virtually identical, .766 vs. .773). And the Bucs go as Neil goes. In wins, 294 PAs, he has an .894 OPS. In losses, 178 PAs, it's .525.)
Con: Neil can't hit lefties. He has a .577 OPS this year which is below his .658 career number. For a point of reference Sean Rodriguez has a .586 OPS this year. Walker is also now a below-average defensive second baseman. He is still great making the turn, but his range is limited.
Prediction: Walker is still the Pirates best option at second against RHP, which is what they will face most-often the rest of the way. But he should be used in a straight platoon with Harrison starting against lefties. Neil will probably start 3 out of every 4 remaining games.
Josh Harrison:
Pro: Harrison is an easy-to-root-for, high-energy guy who can play a variety of positions.
Con: JHay is probably the Pirates most-polarizing player and it largely depends whether you believe he is the player who finished 9th in the MVP voting last year or the one he has been the rest of his career. He has not had a good season to-date. He has an OPS+ of 89 and his numbers, particularly slugging, are well below last year's. Harrison also has been surprisingly bad defensively at third. I think he's a pretty good fielder so I'm not overly concerned, but it is worth noting.
Prediction: Harrison is going to go back to the super-utility role he had most of last season. I actually don't see him getting more than a handful of starts at third because that is Kang's best position and it is the only one Ramirez can play. I assume Harrison will get 3-4 starts a week, but not more than that.
Jordy Mercer:
Pro: Jordy is the Pirates best defensive infielder. With Mercer at short and Kang at third the Pirates would immediately upgrade an infield defense that has gone from bad to atrocious the past two months.
Con: Mercer was an offensive black hole the first two months of the season but did post an OPS of .800 in 101 PAs in June before cooling off a bit and getting injured in July.
Prediction: I know it isn't going to be wildly popular, particularly if he doesn't hit right away, but I think Mercer is going to return to being the Pirates regular shortstop, getting 4-5 starts a week. Run prevention counts just as much as runs scored and with a staff that leads MLB in ground ball rate I think Clint is going to want Jordy's glove out there on a regular basis, which also upgrades third base by having Kang play there.
Aramis Ramirez:
Pro: Ramirez couldn't be a better teammate thus far. He has said all the right things. He's been willing to do some pregame work at first. He's said if he's is demoted to a bench role, he will accept it. He has said he just wants to contribute in any way to help the Pirates succeed in their goal of winning a World Series. A+
Con: Ramirez has not been good this year or in his short stint with the Pirates. In 97 PAs he has a .630 OPS. He's hit one HR after hitting 11 in 302 PAs with the Brewers. He's only walked three times and he has an OBP of .278. Oh, and his defense has been terrible. He has zero range.
Prediction: Right-handed bench bat. That's what he should be and that's what he's going to be. I'll be shocked if Ramirez makes 15 more starts this season and won't be at all surprised if it's less than 10. But he will be a nice upgrade to the bench.
Conclusion: With everyone now healthy, I think you will see the Pirates return to the nine guys for eight spots roster management that we saw the first half of the season. It will be a little different in that Jung Ho Kang and Gregory Polanco will be in the lineup almost every night and that will cost Walker, Harrison and Mercer some playing time. Aramis Ramirez is going to be the odd man out.
Friday, August 21, 2015
Hghlights of my conversation with Pirates Assistant to the GM & pitching guru Jim Benedict (Part 1)
I had Jim Benedict on my show on Wednesday afternoon. I learn something about pitching every time I speak to Jim and this was no different. In encourage you to listen to the whole conversation, but here are some highlights:
On J.A. Happ:
"He's a veteran....and a lot of times with veterans you can do a quick fix....Ray's really good at that for sure."
On acquiring Joe Blanton:
"He's always giving you everything he's got. So you know the pitching makeup is good. He's a strike-thrower. That never left him."
On Blanton coming back after taking a year off:
"When guys decide that it's over, that's a big decision to hang up your spikes and move on. And when a guy makes that decision he doesn't usually look back because it's a hard one.....It's not uncommon for guys who do come back, they go into the bullpen, they're ultra-aggressive, they've already ended it, they're just starting a new chapter. And what I see from him is an extremely confident, aggressive guy. He's nothing like the guy that retired. You have to evaluate him completely on what you see right now in another organization."
"That's a huge get. I just see aggression and just clarity, mental clarity, where he's just getting after it."
On scouting Arquimedes Caminero and guys like him:
"He's a great story. This is what you're capable of doing when you are building a bullpen, is look for guys like this who have flaws, who have command flaws, maybe they have velocity, maybe you see a breaking ball, then you don't, that means it's in there."
On acquiring Caminero:
"I said, man, if we do get him, I think I know what we can do, at least early to get rid of some of this extra energy....He (Ray Searage) got him in the strike zone. Then the deception was all velocity-related, so you didn't have deception. So during the big league year, and this is really a tribute to Ray (Searage) and Eucky (bullpen coach Euclides Rojas), during the major league season they have given him deception by toning him down, making him pitch, and making him throw behind in the count, making him use his split. The two-seam on the fastball vs. the four. So instead of always trying to light up the gun, always being a prospect, all of a sudden you've got a guy who can pitch at any time in the game because he's toning it down, he's arrived. That's the way I look at it. Knock on wood. This is what you look for all year long, guys like this, who are flawed, that you bring in and you have talented people to work with them and bring them up to their potential.
In Part 2 we talked about Gerrit Cole in Jameson Taillon. Fascinating stuff. I'll have it up over the weekend.
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