Saturday, August 29, 2015

A quick look at Andrew McCutchen and his 100-game run

On May 5th Andrew McCutchen went 0-for-4 in a 7-1 loss to the Cincinnati Reds. The next day Cutch lined an eighth inning single to center field off Reds starter Mike Leake to break an 0-for-13 string. He was quickly erased when Starling Marte grounded into a 6-4-3 double play as the Reds shutout the Bucs 3-0, dropping their record to 12-15. But looking back, that line drive was the demarcating point in Andrew McCutchen's, and the Pirates', season. Cutch finished the day with a triple slash line of .188/.279/.292 and an OPS of .571 in 111 plate appearances.

In 427 PAs since then McCutchen has been as good as anyone in the game. He's posted a line of .335/.438/.585, 1.023 OPS 18 homers and 72 RBI. The Pirates have gone 66-34.

McCutchen rate stats are now almost exactly in line with his numbers over the past three seasons, a model of consistency:

                   AVG     OBP     SLG     OPS     OPS+

2012          .327      .400      .553      .953      162

2013          .317      .404      .508      .911      157

2014          .314      .410      .542      .952      166    

2015          .304      .405      .522      .928      154

And if he keeps up his torrid August and carries that thru September, Cutch has a chance to put up some of the best counting numbers of his career. Cutch by month:

                   AVG     OBP     SLG     OPS

Apr             .194      .302      .333      .636

May            .330      .419      .566      .985

Jun             .337      .422      .511      .933

Jul              .287      .382      .532      .914

Aug            .345      .477      .631     1.108

The last three seasons McCutchen has had 673, 674 and 678 plate appearances. With 35 games to go he's got 538 and should fall right in line with the three previous years. The last three years he's finished in the top three in the MVP voting. A solid month should put him right there for a fourth. And a big one just might get him his second trophy.

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